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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#41
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I like the chart, but it's exactly what the article indicated, no?

Article indicated It went up to 3 times the price and is now down to pre rocket prices. Charts seem to agree?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#42
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing?

That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#43
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

The 25Y chart looks interesting, a reversion to the mean. Prices finally came back to the normal range.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#44

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

Some of the forecasts about high prices forever were just sour grapes that their preferred candidate lost an election. You always have to take predictions with a grain of salt.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#45

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

The only people I saw saying this were the people on mainstream news like CNN or Fox (more Fox). But outside that I didn't hear anyone. Lumber has been falling since May and lumber futures have been going down as well.

Really the only people that were saying that prices would remain high had a vested interest in keeping it high. It is such an insane position to even take considering that a pandemic is a temporary thing. Prices don't just pump like that and stay up. I know that there are a lot of people that say those kinds of things, but they are fear mongering and trying to cause inflation through self fulfilling prophesies.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#46
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

Perhaps they were just quotation marks rather than scare quotes and they genuinely wanted to show how wild the price fluctuations have been. Cynicism abounds on the internet, but people are still sometimes genuine.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#47

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Common practice in construction industry is to overcommit to too many projects, then raise prices until the most cost-conscious customers drop out. Now you’re only left with the customers willing to pay the highest prices. It’s not really about lumber prices. It’s about finding the highest construction prices that the market will bear. Can’t find the limit until you push so hard that some customers start dropping out…

So basically an indirect auction mechanism?

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#48
post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I like the chart, but it's exactly what the article indicated, no? Article indicated It went up to 3 times the price and is now down to pre rocket prices. Charts seem to agree?

Because sometimes "skyrocketing" means going 1% over the average annual high, or "cratering" going 2% below widely published analyst forecasting.

In other words, the media is often radically hyperbolic to get clicks and ad views. So much so that when they use the same adjectives correctly they don't carry any weight anymore.

They're the boy who cried wolf.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#50

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

There's all kinds of supply disruptions right now (that have come to a head in the last 14 months).
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