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Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

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Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#61

Post by xnx »

hoppyhoppy2 wrote: post #46
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

Perhaps they were just quotation marks rather than scare quotes and they genuinely wanted to show how wild the price fluctuations have been. Cynicism abounds on the internet, but people are still sometimes genuine.

Thanks. I'm legitimately quoting, but also prefer use of more specific terms like "tripled" or "fives times more expensive" etc. than common dramatic headlines words like "crushed", "slammed", "blasted", "surged".

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#63

Post by [deleted] »

godelski wrote: post #52
xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

To me what is interesting is comparing to other commodities. For Iron you see a similar pattern to lumber. Copper and steel boombed but are only starting to turn now. Is there a lag between raw materials and more refined materials? Silver and gold similarly, though gold has fallen harder. I'm guessing because of all the doomers that buy gold when the economy dips. I don't know how to analyze wheat. And crude oil just…

[deleted]

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#64

Post by edrxty »

nradov wrote: post #11
reilly3000 wrote: post #4

If the price keeps dropping at this rate lumber will be free by December! /s Seriously, this is a welcome correction, and another sign that runaway inflation fears were based on hyperbole.

The new runaway inflation is in steel prices. https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-steel-prices-have-manufact...

Better link: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel

Tl;dr...Meh?

It's up but historically it's not that high, it just cratered for most of the teens.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#65

Post by abakker »

hpoe wrote: post #51
throwdecro wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watch out for HELOCs in what sense? Who would loan money to a homeowner with an underwater house, not matter how much they clamor?

People get HELOCs now, intending to flip the house sometime soon. Suddenly the house depreciates substantially in value, they still have to pay for the HELOC and the mortgage for a house that they weren't planning on holding on to and can't get rid of and now they are trapped.

I don’t know about what you have seen, but a lot of of banks are not even offering new HELOCs now.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#66

Post by bcrosby95 »

godelski wrote: post #52
xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

To me what is interesting is comparing to other commodities. For Iron you see a similar pattern to lumber. Copper and steel boombed but are only starting to turn now. Is there a lag between raw materials and more refined materials? Silver and gold similarly, though gold has fallen harder. I'm guessing because of all the doomers that buy gold when the economy dips. I don't know how to analyze wheat. And crude oil just…

Note that you can't just cut down a tree and make lumber out of it. You have to dry it out first, which, afaik can take a long time.

I don't know about the other stuff though.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#67

Post by tomrod »

klipt wrote: post #47
PragmaticPulp wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common practice in construction industry is to overcommit to too many projects, then raise prices until the most cost-conscious customers drop out. Now you’re only left with the customers willing to pay the highest prices. It’s not really about lumber prices. It’s about finding the highest construction prices that the market will bear. Can’t find the limit until you push so hard that some customers start dropping out…

So basically an indirect auction mechanism?

General price discovery. Not too different, but auctions would have multiple people bidding on the same unit, rather than simply the same build plan here.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#68

Post by stadium »

edrxty wrote: post #57
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

I found this book to be extremely insightful on the process and pitfalls. Communication in writing and being specific about grading specs for various finishes was one of my big takeaways. There's a lot more to it though. Having an architect act as an independent PM may be a good idea too if you forgoe a GC.

That said, I didn't follow through yet and haven't built anything myself. Even if you do use a GC it's still a great read.

https://www.buildwise.org/review-what-your-contractor-cant-t...

Edit: I did get as far as talking to my go-to mortgage banker about construction financing, and learned that self-GC'd projects are pretty much not finance-able through traditional paths. Many of these projects end up unfinished, with the GC-owner running out of money. And with no certificate of occupancy they can't be easily sold or refinanced.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#69

Post by chejazi »

xnx wrote: post #61
hoppyhoppy2 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps they were just quotation marks rather than scare quotes and they genuinely wanted to show how wild the price fluctuations have been. Cynicism abounds on the internet, but people are still sometimes genuine.

Thanks. I'm legitimately quoting, but also prefer use of more specific terms like "tripled" or "fives times more expensive" etc. than common dramatic headlines words like "crushed", "slammed", "blasted", "surged".

Don't forget "soared" and "plunged", used practically any day the market moves more than a hair.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#70

Post by kortilla »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #42
xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

No, that’s not really skyrocketing if your point of reference is other volatile things (stocks, crypto currencies, etc).
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