Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#71

Post by ctdonath » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:19 PM UTC

blhack wrote: post #42

John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

The piece of the puzzle that Ford doesn't currently have is charging stations. Tesla building its supercharger network was a brilliant move because it means that Teslas are comparable to most petrol-fuel vehicles (as far as where you can go), and everybody else isn't. If I buy a Ford, can I drive it to see my family in Northern Minnesota[1]? Because I know that I can take a tesla. That's a really big deal. I know the…

You may want to clarify the non-sequitur there. Yes, Ford doesn't have it's own network of "chargers" (300+ mile recharge in 5 minutes or less), but you know there's a solid network available; in the few places where chargers are lacking, you can easily take extra power units with you (disposably cheap at that).

That said, Tesla is pursuing the angle of enabling customers to install their own charging station requiring negligible maintenance, and no supply; charing networks are only needed for longer trips which most customers don't need. That is a game-changer for many industries.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#72

Post by jernfrost » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:20 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #59

Ford has dozens of production facilities across every continent on earth producing millions of vehicles a year. How can Tesla possibly be more valuable?

It is all about who owns the future. E.g. how much would you value the stock of SpaceX competitors now that SpaceX can fly reused rockets? Doesn't matter how many factories these guys have. They will be destroyed because they will never be able to compete on price, with somebody who can just refuel their rocket while you have to build a whole new one each time.

People value stocks based on what they think the future holds.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#73

Post by chillydawg » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #59

Ford has dozens of production facilities across every continent on earth producing millions of vehicles a year. How can Tesla possibly be more valuable?

Because people buying and selling shares think that ford will probably shrink and tesla will continue to grow at pace for years, eating market share from Ford (and every other hydrocarbon heavy manufacturer).

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#74

Post by John23832 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #47

John23832 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. I guess you could say the same for Kodak, Blockbuster, and Borders? “The reason is that good management itself was the root cause. Managers played the game the way it was supposed to be played. The very decision-making and resource-allocation processes that a…

I've read the book. None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#75

Post by toomuchtodo » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

iaw wrote: post #66

toomuchtodo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And when it comes to car sales, Tesla sold 40,697 vehicles in the U.S. last year, according to researcher IHS Markit. Ford sells that many F-Series trucks in the U.S. about every three weeks." How much stationary energy storage did Ford sell last year? "Tesla CTO: our energy storage is growing as fast as we can humanly scale it [Gallery of new Powerpack station]" https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/tesla-cto-energy-stor…

More than Tesla: http://www.fordpower.cc/products.aspx?cateid=18

Actual laughter was produced at a generator product page.

Fuel has a marginal cost. Stationary battery storage soaks up power when power is cheap, releases it when the cost is higher and energy demand is higher and has a 10 year minimum life.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#76

Post by drzaiusapelord » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

cmarschner wrote: post #22

John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

>a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines

You mean largely trouble-free engines that run on ultra-cheap gas?

ICE has environmental issues, of course, but the idea that electric is universally superior is questionable. There's no range anxiety with gas and any backyard mechanic can fix most issues. Your locked down $100,000 IoT car is a completely different beast.

>Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Says who? If anything everyone is bearish on electric since gas prices have fallen and how range and recharge times will always be less convenient. Electric might replace gas but it won't be in the near future and nothing stops Ford from launching an electric line of its own. Electric cars are a solved problem if you can convince people to pay the premium and deal with the range anxiety and long recharge times. Ford has already announced an electric Mustang and F-150 on top of the $30,000, pre-rebate, 2017 Focus you can buy today. Tesla has no monopoly on electric tech. The barrier to entry is non-existant for other car companies.

edit: saying that the government will ban ICE isn't a market statement its a regulatory hope and for most nations a far off proposal. The idea that Tesla can only succeed with the government literally making their competitors illegal isn't actually a pro-Tesla argument. You guys are much less convincing than you think you are.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#77

Post by MisterBastahrd » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

cmarschner wrote: post #22

John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Combustion engines in vehicles like the F series trucks aren't going away any time soon. You need generational leaps in battery technology and safety to compete with those trucks. The whole "rugged, dependable" thing that they play on the television is not just for show. I've got a former co-worker who buys a new F-350 supercrew every couple of years before selling it and the depreciation is less than a lease for a midsize sedan.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#78

Post by John23832 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #24

John23832 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

Individuals within a company seek to be viable in the future, which often leads them to reject innovation that might endanger their role. History is littered with companies that refused to pivot into new technology until far later than they should have, because they were too heavily invested in the old way. American car companies suffered from this in the 70s, where they got thrashed by competition from small imports…

Bureaucracy goes out the window when you have an activist investor asking you why you're ignoring clear market trends.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#79

Post by oculusthrift » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

crabasa wrote: post #57

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#80

Post by stcredzero » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #61

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

and... this is how bubbles happen. Investors and fans say "but, but my stock isn't overvalued! Mine is the exception, its everyone else who is in the bubble!" There's no sane scenario where a car company that sells cars in the tens of thousands over-values a car company that sells cars in the millions.

Investors and fans say "but, but my stock isn't overvalued! Mine is the exception, its everyone else who is in the bubble!"

It was true if you held Google stock.