Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

qz.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 108 posts

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#71

Post by threeseed »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #60
thomasfoster96 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can analyse faces all you want, but whoever the next Prime Minister is, they have a tough job that will probably end with them being walloped in a general election or being toppled by their own party. Boris Johnson is just in an even worse position because he was seen as the leader-in-waiting and he actively campaigned for the policy that made everything so complicated.

And, right now, he has 52% of voters behind him. But, that is somehow making him do a sad face?

He had 52% of voters behind him. We don't know what the current percentage is.

And yes I imagine it can't be fun to have to be the one to implement all of this.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#73

Post by bodyfour »

Joeri wrote: post #18

The brexit will happen, but the result will be a trade agreement that imposes almost the same set of conditions on the UK, except without the ability of the UK to veto new EU measures. In short, the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe, but now without veto powers. The negotiators won't be trying too hard to get a better deal from the EU, because they'll be the ones in power, and if they fail to negotiate a d…

I'm not even that optimistic.

First, one of the prime exports to the EU is financial services. Major financial flows -- even ones in Euros -- are largely done through London. I can't imagine the remaining countries consenting to allowing that to happen in a non-EU country. Financial services would be excluded from a new agreement. The thing that makes the UK rich is that it was the de facto business and financial capital of the continent, and I don't see how that survives.

Second, the new agreement will need to be approved by every remaining EU country. Some might come on board quickly either because their governments are Euroskeptic (Hungary, Poland) or because they'd rather not upset the current trade balance (Germany) Others have less reason to agree easily. Spain, for instance, wants Gibraltar back and wants money for all of the British retirees its health service is looking after. Ireland will want to be in the driver's seat for any decisions about its land border with the UK. The list goes on. I have a hard time seeing how any of this gets figured out in 2 years.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#74

Post by vixen99 »

YeGoblynQueenne wrote: post #45

Or maybe Boris looked subdued because he just had the flu. All those plausible theories are just that: plausible and theories. Who knows what's going through Johnson's head right now? Who knows what will happen in the future? What good is this sort of analysis, that's based on some vague attempt to form a theory of mind of a particular person (rather than a class of person, say) by people who have never even met the…

Probably your words would go well on the stump.

I can agree with your final sentence. On Brexit, control will return from unelected, Brussels civil servants (the commissioners) who conduct their deliberations in secret, to elected (is this populist?) members of the British Government.

http://www.robertthomson.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/tho... illustrates the complexity of the power links in Brussels.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#75

Post by thomasfoster96 »

bikamonki wrote: post #72

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction. Is this true in UK's legislation?

Yes, in the UK the parliament has absolute sovereignty[0].

Parliament cannot be overruled by the courts (unlike the US or Australia, where the Supreme/High Court can declare laws invalid), nor is there any requirement for decisions to be taken to a referendum (unlike Australia or Switzerland, where the constitution can't be changed without a vote).

The UK parliament can, in theory, ignore the referendum entirely - although that'd be hugely unpopular if they did.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#76

Post by threeseed »

IsaacL wrote: post #58
bodyfour wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the…

> It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. It's not clear to me. I think you are taking it as self-evident that Leave is a bad idea. In the mainstream narrative, the EU is associated with everything nice and international and the only reason to be against it is if you're a crazy old-fashioned nationalist. There's a classical liberal case for Brexit, though, which Gove articulated reasonably wel…

> There is now more money in the UK budget, where it gets spent is up to the next PM.

That money is worth significantly less since the GBP dropped in value. And if multinational companies start moving their European/EMEA headquarters to Frankfurt, Brussels, Berlin, Dublin etc then there will be significantly lower tax receipts. Of course with the UK rumoured to lose its last AAA credit rating government borrowing costs will be higher as well.

This idea that Brexit somehow meant more money for the UK budget is simply ridiculous. Any disruptive change of this nature always translates to lower growth whilst people adjust.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#77

Post by alva »

threeseed wrote: post #56
alva wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You move towards the picture you create. This sort of crazy hyperbole is why many people are scared. The UK will be fine. We are members of the top international groups, NATO, G7 etc.

The UK will not be fine though. Scotland is all but certain to leave. Northern Ireland is also quite likely to find a way to reunite in part with Ireland. The UK will be dissolved in all but name. And of course UK will still remain within international groups. But it will no longer be the key entry point for political, commercial and cultural engagement with Europe. To manage that shift is not going to be easy nor re…

"Scotland is all but certain to leave."

Not a certainty at all, especially if new EU membership involves taking the Euro. There is a reason Sturgeon has not yet called the vote, they know that EU joining terms are likely to be very ugly for Scotland at this time. She first has to convince the EU to give them extremely exceptional rules (or legal challenge so Scotland isn't necessarily leaving then joining).

Your statements are hyperbolic. No one has any clue what is going to happen next. Making these assertions is unhelpful to everyone.

But. If you truly believe in what you are saying, now is the time for you to make yourself millions of pounds in the next few months easily. Plough your savings into the market, take large, leveraged positions against the UK.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#78

Post by tonyedgecombe »

TheCondor wrote: post #62
thomasfoster96 wrote: post #14

Well that pretty much nails it. While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wale…

If this hyper politics game is real, what was the exit plan? There was simply no way it would pass? Or Cameron wants to stay in power so bad that he'd do the dirty work that the people willed and taje the fall for whatever fallout comes?

Cameron doesn't want to stay in power, he announced he would stand down before the next election at the end of the last parliament.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#79

Post by slv77 »

imtringued wrote: post #35
skylan_q wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe No it won't, as the EU has become a legislative body governing aspects of people's lives in the UK and it will no longer be the case.

If you want a trade agreement with the EU then yes it will govern aspects of people's lives in the UK because the majority of EU laws are trade regulations.

In a deflationary environment countries that run trade deficits make the rules. Germany is currently exporting its deflation (and its effects) to the UK via its trade surplus which the Bank of England then has to mitigate.

At this point severe trade restrictions with the UK would likely mean even more severe imbalances inside the EU and the eventual exit of Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Re: A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

#80

Post by tonyedgecombe »

arethuza wrote: post #64
bodyfour wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely, but he's still highly popular with the membership. If the parliamentary party picked the leader, he never would be within sight of the job. Unfortunately Labour is in the all-to-familiar trap of only wanting purity, feeling that the entire country will surely swing to the far-left any second now. You would think being out of power for 18 years last time would have taught them, but apparently not. Had they…

"he's still highly popular with the membership." A large proportion of which probably just voted for Brexit - I think Corbyn wasn't that keen on the EU in the first place and knew that a lot of core Labour voters weren't keen on it either.

But those aren't the voters he needs to win over to win the next election, it's the middle ground where elections are won and lost.

I suspect he thought what was bad for his enemy was good for him, how wrong he was.

Post reply on HN