Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

681–690 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#681

Post by SlinkyOnStairs »

daniel_iversen wrote: post #674
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

Doesn't inference have very good profit margins* but all the losses come from training? * For now, when they don't have to compete much against companies like DeepSeek who supplies inference at 1/10th of the cost

> Doesn't inference have very good profit margins* but all the losses come from training?

There is no source for this. Amodei just pulled a hypothetical explicitly distanced from Anthropic out of his ass and kickstarted some citogenesis when people half-remembered that number and started quoting it as truth.

The only material claim of Anthropic is that they would "turn an operating profit of $559 million in the June quarter ... The company might not remain profitable for the full year as it plans spending increases due to its vast computing needs." with an explicit disclaimer that: "It is unclear what accounting methods Anthropic has used to book revenue and costs, as the company isn’t yet required to follow the financial-reporting requirements of a public company."

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-...

This is the exact same quarter where xAI is giving them deeply discounted compute, as such the numbers cannot be projected out to the later quarters once Anthropic has to actually pay xAI for the compute they use.

Finally, there's the reality that were the revenue numbers any good, Anthropic would just publish them and leapfrog OpenAI. That they do not provide clear GAAP numbers suggests the numbers are bad.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#682

Post by DanielHB »

saidnooneever wrote: post #456
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

I don't know about your country, but in Sweden you can choose where part of your investment money (I think 40%) gets allocated. On top of that you can choose where 100% of your private pensions are allocated.

Also some EU pension funds are already in the process of divesting from US markets...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#683

Post by dominotw »

Xunjin wrote: post #115
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

oh yea good way to stay out of market and retire like a poor person.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#684

Post by DanielHB »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #481
saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

No, it's wrong. Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500. So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.

If they go bust won't it likely trigger a massive market crash? Afterall index funds will be forced to sell other US stocks to buy them, bringing their values down. Non-passive investors will predict that and divest even more and so on...

And that is on top of the IPO companies losing value themselves, this seems likely to trigger a doom-loop until the market reaches a low enough value. This will likely trigger layoffs and companies reducing spending and investments further depressing the economy. Added inflation from oil prices and war.

This doesn't seem like one big balloon ready to burst, but more like a house suspended by hundreds of balloons and they are about to be ran over by an airplane.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#685

Post by mgiannopoulos »

andruby wrote: post #536
pj_mukh wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay before we set off the alarm though, can someone tell me What percentage of these index funds will be SPCX and TSLA? Like if both these stocks become penny stocks what happens to the indices? Isn’t the whole point that they are hedged across the whole market?

Assuming $75B float for SpaceX * S&P500: 0.08% – 0.12% * NASDAQ-100: 0.47% – 0.70% * Russell 1000: 0.1%

A key point to look out for is how much money Anthropic and later OpenAI will go for in their IPO, which will utilise the same (updated) rules.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#686

Post by bilsbie »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

I’m actually neutral on this so far but my main question is are they changing the rules permanently or just one time?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#687

Post by brookst »

intended wrote: post #363
brookst wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve really hit that point, where our institutions are transparently corrupt, and everyone knows it, and both the guilty and the public just say “yep, we’re doing the corrupt thing”. It’s depressing as hell, and it’s going to go out with the proverbial whimper, but at least we’ve got to be close to rock bottom, right?

From someone who lives in a country that is still more corrupt than America. You need to vote for the next several years, no matter what, because you still have a chance. Once corruption becomes the default, then you are REALLY screwed. Because it kills hope and the faith in the future in the most corrosive way possible. The death of morale is a far worse and insidious fate that will make today look like a high point…

I appreciate the perspective. From where I sit in America, morale is as dead as it gets. The president wrote himself a $2B check, and both his supporters and opponents are resigned to this massive theft. Restrictions on voting are nonsensical, the Supreme Court is transparently ruling based on who will benefit rather than what the laws say, and masked “police” are terrorizing communities.

Of course I’ll vote, and be more active in protests and campaigns, but TBH the general vibe is that it’s already too late. It’s that bad.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#688

Post by tristanj »

davemp wrote: post #608
tristanj wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

> One third of all software code is written by AI. I find it interesting that using lines of code as a metric is making a comeback.

The number of lines of code doesn't matter any more. A better metric is AI-assisted commits, which has the same statistics.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#690

Post by tristanj »

camillomiller wrote: post #619
tristanj wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

You couldn’t have picked a better argument to show how this bias is exactly what’s making tech people think this shift is ubiquitous. “It works extremely well for coding, in which I am a domain expert, so why wouldn’t it work for all the other domains I absolutely know nothing about?”

ChatGPT has 700 million users. What do you think they are using it for? It's upended entire industries.

How many millions of emails do you think are composed using ChatGPT? How many legal briefs were reviewed by AI? How many businesses use AI generated art? How many kids do their homework using ChatGPT?

The GP is arguing that AI has struggled to replace humans, but in so many roles AI is doing the heavy lifting and humans are copying its output.

Post reply on HN