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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#611

Post by vb-8448 »

SilverElfin wrote: post #118
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more. I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits

I think their real moat is the grip they have in corporates.

Once they are in, they will catch most of the opportunities.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#612

Post by pbhjpbhj »

matwood wrote: post #504
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

You shouldn't be downvoted because your point is completely valid. Matt Levine made the same point in the last Money Stuff podcast. These indexes are supposed to contain the largest, most significant, and in some cases all companies so people shouldn't be mad at the indexes for pulling in a company that's going to have a 1.5T market cap at IPO. Given the market cap, it would actually be weird to not have it in an ind…

What's really clever is that Musk could pull his Nazi salute at the inauguration of the president he bought, and the ensuing 'voting with your dollars' against him doesn't matter because he was able to orchestrate forcing people to pay him by cutting them out of the loop. I mean it's absolutely evil, but it's pretty clever - his team proved they can't run a country (they probably could, but don't want to), but they're incredibly adept at stealing.

I wonder if Musk chose rocketry solely because of the ability to use it to drain money from government?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#613

Post by BoredPositron »

collabs wrote: post #578
ashdksnndck wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

Sure, I don't like him either but it shouldn't be about him. It should be about the institutions we trusted to keep our index funds safe. Or was this always based on "vibes"? Was VOO never safe? Was it always possible for the people in charge of the stock market to simply include some money pit into our retirement funds? I feel like the people responsible for these decisions must fear life in prison or this will keep…

It's inherently about him because he is the one behind these changes.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#614

Post by mattmaroon »

fsuts wrote: post #603
ashdksnndck wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

Twitter was 40 billion ish overpriced purchase and SpaceX is seeking to raise 75billion Let’s not make billions into a footnote?

It’s a footnote because SpaceX is going to be worth trillions. If Twitter were fully written down right after IPO SpaceX’s shares might not even have a bad day.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#615

Post by deadbabe »

Spacex is worth buying. The best chance to make a lot of money is buying stock before the economics make sense. By the time SpaceX looks like a good company on paper with strong profits… the price will be so high you have little chance of making anything significant. If it’s a long term hold, consider how far away retirement is for you. Also, moon bases are coming.

The AI companies IMO are fucked. In the next few years computer hardware should advance to the point that local LLMs are good enough for everyday workloads. Not everyone needs top of the line flagship models in a cloud to see productivity gains. Companies will actually save money just buying employees top of the line laptops for AI enabled work than blowing that same amount on tokens every month.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#616

Post by mattmaroon »

The index fund thing seems to me to be an overhyped nothingburger. The seasoning period would just delay the inevitable when a company is launching with a trillion dollar valuation.

The big story is that that is happening at all. It wasn’t that long ago when Facebook had to get special permission from the government to stay private until they got to $100 billion.

The issue here is that public investors are missing out on so much upside.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#618

Post by deadbabe »

coliveira wrote: post #196
deadbabe wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor. If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. Also, just because s…

Ask Warren Buffet how concerned he was of "missing" on bubbles... He got richer than pretty much everybody else by just avoiding bubbles and then buying assets at fire sale prices when they inevitably popped.

No, Warren Buffet became so rich because he was making deals to pick up stock at favorable prices the public didn’t have access to. You will not be Warren Buffet just by buying after stocks crash.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#619

Post by camillomiller »

tristanj wrote: post #545
zwarag wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

You couldn’t have picked a better argument to show how this bias is exactly what’s making tech people think this shift is ubiquitous. “It works extremely well for coding, in which I am a domain expert, so why wouldn’t it work for all the other domains I absolutely know nothing about?”

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#620

Post by [deleted] »

ashdksnndck wrote: post #484
hliyan wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

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