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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#651

Post by fsuts »

worik wrote: post #218

What is the value proposition for Space-X? As far as I can tell it is in machines they cannot make work, servicing markets that do not exist for a service that will not matter for 20-years. That and a third rate AI company that no body wants, except to get rid of. This will probably go swimmingly at the start - but as time goes by and they raise more capital, Musk snorts more K and the glory fades, what then?

It’s not value proposition, it’s profit

The market : As long as you sell for more than you buy, who cares what happens long term

Hence Tesla bubble

Finance bros look to their bonus for the year, not 5 years

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#652

Post by skinfaxi »

collabs wrote: post #578
ashdksnndck wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

Sure, I don't like him either but it shouldn't be about him. It should be about the institutions we trusted to keep our index funds safe. Or was this always based on "vibes"? Was VOO never safe? Was it always possible for the people in charge of the stock market to simply include some money pit into our retirement funds? I feel like the people responsible for these decisions must fear life in prison or this will keep…

These are indices created by private entities. They are free to change their rules are they not? Maybe this is the wake up call to the risks of concentrated passive investment vehicles the public needed.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#653

Post by 1over137 »

hedora wrote: post #214
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

We have some exotic chicks the kids picked out, and 4 were going to die of brooder pneumonia. An LLM correctly diagnosed it, and figure out that we could treat them with Nutri-drench Sheep Supplement, since Tractor Supply was sold out of the chicken version, and they are very similar. Of course it then immediately recommended we use hemp bedding that would kill them a different way, but the saleswoman sanity checked…

Sounds like you have only the saleswoman to thank, not the bot.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#654

Post by fsuts »

enopod_ wrote: post #507
ExoticPearTree wrote: post #435

I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.

I just had this thought: This is the story of the Great Western Desert eXploration Railway Company. Let's call it WestX for simplicity. They are building a 2000 miles railway line from the east coast into the great western desert. There is nothing there in this desert, but its a great place to set up antennas. The place is called Sunshine Plateau. Unfortunately, there is also absolutely nothing on the entire 2000 mil…

Paragraphs are your friend

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#655

Post by fsuts »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #40
SilverElfin wrote: post #37

Can the stock market remain legitimate after such a brazen example of dumping? Regular everyday people can’t access private shares and participate in upside even if they want to. They don’t have the connections like VCs, and aren’t accredited investors. And companies ban secondary transactions, which should be forced by law to be always allowed. And then after all that, the public have to deal with their index funds,…

> then they have to deal with their index funds, ETFs, mutual funds, pensions, 401ks, etc buying up overpriced stocks Only about a third of American stocks are held by passive capital [1]. Out of that, index funds are about 16%, and most of those in America reference the S&P 500, which has not yet announced whether it is changing its rules. [1] https://alexchinco.com/double-what-you-think-it-is.pdf

A third is a lot 16% is a lot

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#656

Post by 1over137 »

mindwok wrote: post #292
chasd00 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try to keep perspective, these valuations are just functions of the stock market the end result of some spreadsheet. They have nothing to do with quality of life. Why would you relate those two things in the first place?

They are fundamentally different, but people desire they be aligned. The public expects the economy to producing higher quality of life for us, otherwise what is it doing? And for whom? But whether it actually does so is a function of other things. That gap seems bigger than usual right now with AI and tech eating the whole economy.

Yes, exactly. Many people fail to ask themselves: what is the economy for?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#657

Post by sph »

9dev wrote: post #361
lenerdenator wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're just as on the take as anyone. Think about it: you have hundreds of thousands of pages of evidence that the hyper-wealthy may have trafficked minors across state and international borders. Only one person is in prison over it, and her cell gets upgrades. 35 years ago this would have been a slam dunk for the opposition party of any republic. Instead of standing ten toes down on it, opposition leaders are doing…

Not just the opposition. In other times this would have been the reason for a revolution.

There wasn't TikTok and Doordash at the time. Panem et circenses.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#658

Post by fsuts »

carlosjobim wrote: post #80
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

Not true

The powerful people holding the debt will seek to change the government to one that obeys them

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#659

Post by Planktonne »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #207
cowmix wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.

> future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram

This can't be treated as meaningful, given other projections and goals (Mars colony, etc.).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#660

Post by lossolo »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

It would crash if not for massive public debt that went mostly into capital markets and huge inflation.
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