641–650 of 741 posts
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I explicitly accounted for this incentive with my first three words.
I'm curious what positive externalities you're thinking about? Being able to make plans for the future?
We're just in a bleak time. It seems that many people are scrambling to do the most harm possible. Everyone's building the torment nexus. I'm not sure what else to do but attempt to insulate my family from it.
Today, we are building the Torment Nexus. But yesterday, we were building the Vietnam War, the Holocaust, etc. etc. Things can get worse, but they can also get better - we just have to do our small part in making them better.
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Yes, I'm not so petty that I wish poverty upon everyone who holds a opinion different from mine! I'm a live and let live kind of guy
And if they're not live and let live people? If they're working to ban or destroy something you value highly? To harm you or someone you care about?
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I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.
Also, I really feel like so many of the people defending prediction markets don't understand the very basics of economy and behavioral science: incentives. You're creating a legalized system with the incentives to influence events to make terrible stuff happen. We've already seen huge bets on the deadline of US attack to Venezuela spike few hours/days before the actual aggression. Which means that insiders not only h…
- Property rights: bettors are waging using their own property at their own direct risk. To prohitbit such a thing is to violate their property rights, plain and simple; - Information aggregation: prediction markets originally appeared to help make informed decisions about an event by proof-of-stake. If I'm not mistaken, this idea was originally developed by NSA/CIA/FBI for this purpose.
You mentioned misincentives like hold information (which isn't actually related to prediction markets, but more so to NDAs and similar) and "making stuff happen". The latter is functionally the same as policemen/judges/prosecutors/prisons having an incentive to create more criminals. Really, most goals people have may be achieved via criminal means. We don't outlaw free will because people have an incentive to achieve their goals via criminal means, we increase punishments (increasing potential loses), improve tracking/prevention (reducing success chances), etc.
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Note that #1 will get kicked off the platform immediately. Even non-inside traders who win significantly more than expected will be kicked off. If you’re on the platform, you’re losing.
At the moment being, Polymarket has an enormous reputational incentive against behaving like a predatory gambling company. People rely on it as a kind of decentralized alternative to New York Times. Distorting this effect would be very short-sighted.
We're just in a bleak time. It seems that many people are scrambling to do the most harm possible. Everyone's building the torment nexus. I'm not sure what else to do but attempt to insulate my family from it.
Whenever I think to myself "how did things get this bad?", I also force myself to think, "how did they get good, in the first place?" Today, we are building the Torment Nexus. But yesterday, we were building the Vietnam War, the Holocaust, etc. etc. Things can get worse, but they can also get better - we just have to do our small part in making them better.
The left is focused not on the correct thing (albeit a thing worthy of support), and the right refuse to acknowledge the benefit of regulation / legislation and are totally disenchanted with the possibility of politics while they just just blame the left for all their problems.
I got into weather betting markets earlier this year since I figured those can't possibly be rigged, it is automated weather station data yet some groups in the market know the truth a few minutes before everyone else based on the way the markets move. BUT, I stopped on the day that the PHL airport preliminary report said the low of the day was 17 and then later than day the low was raised to 18. The way the market w…
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Personal liberties are overrated, and a functioning society is underrated. OnlyFans, sports betting, and junk food appeal to some people with low impulse control and high time preference in the short term, but have massive negative consequences on everyone in the long run.
The market producing what people desire is a functioning society. All the concern about so called addiction is simply a displaced puritanism disguised as humanism.
You use the words "so called addiction" as if addiction is not an extremely well-documented pyschological (and in some cases physical) phenomenon. Gambling preys on the fact that the variable reward rate method of reinforcement is the one that produces the most dopamine in our brains. Unless someone is acutely aware of how they are being manipulated it is very easy to become addicted to something that is financially dependent on your addiction.
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It also creates a lot incentives for creating unpredictable chaos as an insider.
I explicitly accounted for this incentive with my first three words.
They will be uttered in response to criticism and then quietly ignored until the inevitable. Rinse and repeat. A true mark of a grifter.