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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#381

Post by [deleted] »

TheCowboy wrote: post #358
hermannj314 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data is released every minute, every five minutes, every hour, and then 6 hour high/low, and then mid-day preliminary reports, so there is no last-minute since any one of those reports could contain data (with various validation/rounding caveats) that could eliminate a market of temperatures, so there isn't really a last minute. My conclusion was to focus on forecast and attempt to predict the temperature better than…

A lot of people assume insider trading in weather markets on data that's publicly available but they're unaware of. It's also a massive whoosh that you only consider the insider trader aspect in choosing to play weather markets. No consideration of how you would get an edge in these markets against extremely powerful weather models used by meteorologists who understand the subject and how to apply the data. It seems…

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#382

Post by selcuka »

jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired.

That's a bit cruel. Sometimes tech workers don't have the luxury of choosing their workplaces. Also companies pivot. So, say, a cryptocurrency startup might have later become a gambling website.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#383

Post by rvz »

selcuka wrote: post #382
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. That's a bit cruel. Sometimes tech workers don't have the luxury of choosing their workplaces. Also companies pivot. So, say, a cryptocurrency startup might have later become a gambling website.

Or an AI company acting as a casino with offers, boosted usage and limits to get you addicted into spending more tokens + credits on their digital slot machine which accepts 'tokens' as an exchange for 'promises of productivity' and 'intelligence'.

If the output doesn't work, roll the dice again and spend more tokens.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#384

Post by amarant »

munificent wrote: post #372
Aurornis wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having your job eligibility depend on your boss aligning with your personal morals on topics that have nothing to do with work is terrible I'm surprised there's so much support for this in these HN comments.

Do you really want your labor enriching someone you think is a bad person? Do you want someone whose values go against yours being in a position of power over you?

Yes, I'm not so petty that I wish poverty upon everyone who holds a opinion different from mine!

I'm a live and let live kind of guy

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#385

Post by mikestorrent »

bluetidepro wrote: post #104
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

Naive? I think it shows a higher than average level of awareness. Gambling is rent-seeking that targets vulnerable individuals. It's really only a small step away from dealing in addicting drugs; and is in some ways worse, because it addicts not just individuals, but also cities and countries who get used to the tax output.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#386

Post by mikestorrent »

socalgal2 wrote: post #205
mcmcmc wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the difference between the two is Amazon and Meta do provide some utility to balance it out, whereas gambling is purely a net negative on society. You can be young and naive enough to believe you're "making the world a better place" in big tech. You can't work on pure gambling products without being a scammer at heart; you know what you signed up for.

You can, because the definition of gambling is loose. Magic The Gathering is gambling. You by a pack and hope you get a valuable card, no different than buying a lottery ticket and hope you win. Pokemon Go is also gambling. You pay to hatch eggs and hope you get a rare pokemon. I'm pretty confident the people who made these games don't consider their design to be evil or wrong. In fact, I'm sure they see themselves h…

If we end up losing Magic The Gathering when we ban gambling, I will somehow find a way to sleep at night. Yes, all of these card games that are targeted at kids and young people are somewhat exploitative and are a pipeline into more conventional gambling games + whatever esoteric online pay-to-play stuff comes next.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#387

Post by senordevnyc »

UqWBcuFx6NV4r wrote: post #127
bluetidepro wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm in senior leadership, and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. Can't say I agree with that specific take (and find it a bit naive to be honest), unless you're also not hiring anyone from companies like Amazon, Meta, and all the other tech companies that have also ruined/preyed on society in their own way just as much as any gambling app has.

[flagged]

Big “you can’t fire me, I quit!” vibes.

I’m guessing the Venn diagram of “companies who won’t hire ex-faang” and “companies who can afford to hire ex-faang” is basically just two circles.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#388

Post by hunterpayne »

MengerSponge wrote: post #147
taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

Professor Cottom's a certified (McArthur) Genius, and she clocked this "scam culture" back in 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/opinion/scams-trust-insti... Things have gotten dramatically worse since then.

I knew a couple of McArthur Genius grant recipients (they were students like me) when I was in college. I wouldn't put any of them among the top most intelligent students I went to school with. The way they are chosen isn't exactly bad but it doesn't end up with giving the grants to "geniuses". If you aren't in one of the top most competitive fields, its more about applying and getting the right recommendations. If you get one in math or CS, then yes...that's very impressive. Professor Cotton (sp?) isn't in one of those fields.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#389

Post by HKH2 »

chasd00 wrote: post #287
tamimio wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and have made it clear that anyone who has worked on these products should not be hired. I encourage this concept but also to expand it further, including the ones who work on other evil schemes like the ones used to violate your privacy, sell your data, and participate in sketchy business and/or contracts. Just like how I don’t want to work with someone who develops a gambling platform, I don’t want to work with s…

...or you could look at their resume. btw, maybe i'm missing the joke, but working on the system you're describing would put you on the black list.

The paradox of the paradox of tolerance.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#390

Post by WalterBright »

michaelchisari wrote: post #379
WalterBright wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The problem is capitalism Capitalist countries build walls to keep people out. Socialist countries build walls to keep people in.

This is a trite response that doesn't engage with what was originally stated. The double edged brilliance/danger of capitalism is that it constantly opens up and moves into new markets. This is good, it means once the market determines a need, capital investment can accelerate production of the good that meets that need. But the flip side is it is coming for everything. Everything will be marketized and monetized and…

> we've seen concentrated wealth chip away at regulations for decades or even rip them apart overnight.

There are more and more regulations every day. Oil refineries are being abandoned in California due to regulations so heavy there's no way for them to operate anymore. A friend of mine pulled his business out of California due to stifling regulations.

> Everything will be marketized and monetized and accelerated and made efficient.

I give my unwanted items to the thrift store rather than the landfill. Others sell it on eBay. This is monetizing/making things more efficient. And it's good.

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