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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#601

Post by I-M-S »

tanjtanjtanj wrote: post #483
zeroonetwothree wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Richard Garfield would not be a fan of the "gambling" or "speculation" parts of MTG. To the extent that they exist I do not think they contribute to the quality of the games or the amount of entertainment.

Really? Because he invented the gambling part of MTG - booster packs and then introduced drafting to get people to crack even more. He’s not full time (or even part time) on MTG these days but he is often called in as a consultant.

Not to mention the ante mechanic, abandoned in 1995.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#602

Post by vincnetas »

gadders wrote: post #557
DrBazza wrote: post #547

> Here are three stories about the state of gambling in America. Here's one story about gambling in the UK: the TV advertising is relentless and out of control after 9pm due to legislation passed in the early 00s. Gambling can quite literally lose you your house, friends and family. But apparently it's totally fine to advertise as long as HMRC get ££££. On some TV channels, every second advert, or worse, most adverts…

Most addictions will ruin your life - whether it is gambling, drugs or alcohol.

Right, so why advertise gambling or any other of them?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#603

Post by andrewflnr »

foxglacier wrote: post #517
andrewflnr wrote: post #305

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the b…

You sound like the people proposing how a social network could operate without making people addicted to doomscrolling. Anyone can make a worse service like that but it won't stop the superior service from operating, which is the problem.

I guess I wasn't clear that I'm proposing a statutory limit on gambling amounts, not a voluntary limit by the service, as an alternative to banning it entirely.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#604

Post by ses1984 »

vovavili wrote: post #576
worldsayshi wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also creates a lot incentives for creating unpredictable chaos as an insider.

I explicitly accounted for this incentive with my first three words.

What constraints and how do you enforce them?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#605

Post by dgabriel »

amfarrell617 wrote: post #594
nsvd2 wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're right broadly, but when that wisdom is applied to e.g. how many dildos will be thrown at WNBA players, I don't know how much actual value is created.

That… that actually seems like something which society should want to predict with more precision so that we can hire someone with a net on a stick.

It's also a real world event that can be influenced by the existence of the bet.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#606

Post by vincnetas »

starbugs wrote: post #584
moconnor wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is naive. The people deciding about the bombing will profit most by taking a very large and unlikely position against the market’s predictions and then carrying it out immediately. Anonymous trading on prediction markets leads to unpredictable chaos in the end. And as destruction is easier than creation that’s what we will see more of. Example: a fake German market for train punctuality was announced to make a p…

> blocking a door for a few minutes. Or betting against many trains and throwing a hopefully fake body onto a busy line. Not necessary. If you just bet against them being punctual always, you'll have a 80% plus success rate.

yes, but win ratio is adjusted to that.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#607

Post by andrewflnr »

chias wrote: post #502
andrewflnr wrote: post #305

How much of this is fixed if a person is only able to bet token amounts on each outcome? Let's get crazy and make it $20. A few crazy people might run Sybil attacks but it'll be a lot more limited and obvious. Not that I'm opposed to consigning all these gambling apps back to the fiery depths from which they came, but if you do want to preserve the ability of healthy people to have a little bit of fun, limiting the b…

I'd bet that a significant majority of prediction market revenue comes from people who bet big. So I expect your solution would fix all of it, as a second order effect, in that running one would stop being a viable business model.

That would be fine by me, but I don't think they need massive revenue to be viable. Certainly they would have to downsize from where they are now.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#608

Post by cherryteastain »

well_ackshually wrote: post #552
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There's three kinds of players on Polymarket & others * The insider trading ones that will never lose money * The wallstreetbets degenerates with enough money that it's a fun game even if you lose money * People that have seen every chance they have at becoming moderately wealthy disappear under the current economic state of their country, where overwhelming debt is likely. The era of making it wealthy from a job is…

There are also large trading/market making firms providing liquidity, especially on markets associated with up/down bets on crypto, stocks etc. They use all the options trading machinery they've already built for more 'respectable' venues like CME/Eurex etc, further squeezing the margins for retail traders.

They're active on bets that are even considered "meme" bets. Example: Jesus returning in 2026 - If you can get a loan at 4% as a big well respected trading firm and plonk it on Jesus not returning at 94 cents, you're making ca. 2% for 'free'. (Unless Jesus returns, in which case you have bigger problems than your portfolio pnl).

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#609

Post by kiliantics »

spacebanana7 wrote: post #600
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

It can be useful for insurance/hedging purposes. For example if you're a European farmer it might be rational to protect yourself from fertiliser price swings by buying/shorting natural gas futures, derivates or long dated delivery contracts. Polymarket bets on specific geopolitical events are just another option for this, which can be attractive depending on the price. Prediction markets have a pretty unique benefit…

There are a lot of baked in assumptions here. For instance, as an extreme example, betting on nuclear war or climate collapse happening and then "winning" doesn't really provide you anything of much use in the society you will be living in after such events.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#610

Post by schmidtleonard »

kranke155 wrote: post #574
YZF wrote: post #490

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/court-idf-reser... This was just on the news: "A reservist suspected of using classified information to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site served as a major in the Israeli Air Force, a Tel Aviv Court reveals. The defendant was indicted alongside his alleged accomplice last month on severe security offenses, as well as bribery and obstruction of justice, after the…

This is the literally the only use of prediction markets in the real world - insider trading leaks information

Hey, that's not fair! It's also used for degenerate gambling.
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