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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#551

Post by keybored »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #269
pcthrowaway wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Building part of a killing machine isn't really something you can defend, even if you weren't working on the part of the machine that does the killing.

> Building part of a killing machine isn't really something you can defend Of course it is. I don't personally have an issue with folks who worked on weapons of war. Particularly if they're honest with themselves about the work they did. Doubly particularly if they felt a sense of mission in it. And in an integrated culture and economy, the difference between a person who happens to work at a company with an evil pro…

> > If you worked on Instagram for Kids or whale optimization, fuck off.

> > I don't personally have an issue with folks who worked on weapons of war.

Makes sense.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#552

Post by well_ackshually »

worldsayshi wrote: post #542
firloop wrote: post #277

> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading volume "revenue". Last year, trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1]. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-1... [1]: https://g…

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There's three kinds of players on Polymarket & others

* The insider trading ones that will never lose money

* The wallstreetbets degenerates with enough money that it's a fun game even if you lose money

* People that have seen every chance they have at becoming moderately wealthy disappear under the current economic state of their country, where overwhelming debt is likely. The era of making it wealthy from a job is gone, an enormous part of the population is stuck going from small job to ubering, while being showered with videos of wealth from social media. The only way to make it out is gambling. Whether that's polymarket, sports betting, etc.

When you're already in a shit situation with no hope, "it's a zero sum game" isn't a good counterargument.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#553

Post by automatic6131 »

Spacecosmonaut wrote: post #545
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.

There is definitely value in that, but that value is outweighed - dominated, even - by the incentive produced to fix outcomes, incentivized by that money put on the line.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#554

Post by derelicta »

neop1x wrote: post #541
derelicta wrote: post #530

Have Westerners ever thought of working and creating real value instead of betting on the death of little children?

Yes, they have. They’ve made tons of great products and services that you use every day without even thinking about it, in contrast to Russia for example. It’s a shame you don’t see how much they've improved our quality of life.

You must be confused. Most of the products that end in your hands were made by hard working folks from the Global South. All Westerers do is own the companies, the labour and the politicians from those countries. But don't worry, sooner rather than later, even Westerners will have to relearn what working truly means.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#555

Post by Towaway69 »

ares623 wrote: post #534
Towaway69 wrote: post #510

Is there a site which implements the ideas behind the file Indecent Proposal[1]? It would be a site where folks could start auctions based on stuff they want from other folks. So Bob wants Janes jumper. He goes onto the site, creates an auction with an initial offer of $5. Jane is informed that Bob wants to buy her jumper. She turns down the offer. Bob raises his offer to $10. She declines the offer. Then Cane joins…

that's just darkweb stuff right?

Why? I find Polymarket and these gambling sites just as bad. Is AI with it's fake porn is any better? And just yesterday, Meta and Google was found responsible for addiction[1].

How is this worse? I guess I forgot to say that a site like that would be simply be a poke in the eye of how stupid the internet has become. It's ridiculous to see folks not liking this idea yet finding the idea of betting on wars to be ok.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/03/25/meta-and...

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#556

Post by gadders »

Not really commenting on the politics side, but do Americans realise sports betting has been legal in other countries for decades? (Since 1960 in the UK at least).

Yes, there were a few fixes when in-game betting and exchanges first came in in the UK, but by and large most problems are solved now.

Maybe a less parochial view would help them get a sense of proportion?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#557

Post by gadders »

DrBazza wrote: post #547

> Here are three stories about the state of gambling in America. Here's one story about gambling in the UK: the TV advertising is relentless and out of control after 9pm due to legislation passed in the early 00s. Gambling can quite literally lose you your house, friends and family. But apparently it's totally fine to advertise as long as HMRC get ££££. On some TV channels, every second advert, or worse, most adverts…

Most addictions will ruin your life - whether it is gambling, drugs or alcohol.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#558

Post by franktankbank »

joelthelion wrote: post #499

There is a class of prediction markets that are useful and seem immune to most of these problems : play money prediction markets. I've been enjoying them for years; I feel they provide a useful service to understand what is going on in the world, and they don't seem to provide the perverse incentives that we are seeing here. Oh, and they seem to work just as well.

I don't buy it. It can easily be mirrored to hard money bets.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#559

Post by jappgar »

Spacecosmonaut wrote: post #545
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.

It would be useful to predict things like earthquakes and tornados. Gambling on what politicians and celebrities will do is not science it's degenerate court gossip.
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