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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#621

Post by blitzar »

DrBazza wrote: post #547

> Here are three stories about the state of gambling in America. Here's one story about gambling in the UK: the TV advertising is relentless and out of control after 9pm due to legislation passed in the early 00s. Gambling can quite literally lose you your house, friends and family. But apparently it's totally fine to advertise as long as HMRC get ££££. On some TV channels, every second advert, or worse, most adverts…

You forgot to mention the high street ...

Mine has a pub, a butcher, a baker, a sandwich shop, 3 coffee shops and 5 bookmakers.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#622

Post by kjkjadksj »

superxpro12 wrote: post #619

The final conclusion about the evolving and rising focus on "money" as a core value is interesting, and one that seems to make sense to me. I think most people before the age of information found meaning in life in these non-monetary "beliefs"... religion, community engagement, etc. Mostly to the benefit of the wealthy class. I think people are finally waking up to the fact that the wealthy (parasite) class have been…

Yeah everyone likes to throw a stupid little comment at Robinhood but come on. My parents did not invest outside their 401k. My grandparents actually stuffed 20k in their mattress, must have been pretty good money when they put it under there.

We are approaching the first couple years of this country where investing knowledge has actually proliferated out of the country club. It is a huge shift in the tide but no one wants to talk about it, if only to make a jab at robinhood perhaps.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#623

Post by kjkjadksj »

worldsayshi wrote: post #542
firloop wrote: post #277

> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading volume "revenue". Last year, trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1]. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-1... [1]: https://g…

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

Buy a movie ticket and that money is gone. Throw $20 on a parlay for the weekend sportsball and thats actually interesting, something off script might happen. And that money might not actually be gone.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#624

Post by InsideOutSanta »

hunterpayne wrote: post #438
InsideOutSanta wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is a slippery slope to somewhere. That doesn't mean you can't draw lines.

Doesn't mean it is wise to do so either. I promise you, 5 lines of your political beliefs and I can make you look like a hypocritical and ignorant a55hole to the world. And I can do so purely with data and various ethical guidelines. I doubt you have though through most of your "beliefs" or learned of the policy consequences of many of your political positions. If you had, you wouldn't be such an absolutist. You stil…

I have no idea who you think you're responding to, but it's not me. Also, your angry tone won't convince anyone.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#625

Post by InsideOutSanta »

Chris2048 wrote: post #461
InsideOutSanta wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is a slippery slope to somewhere. That doesn't mean you can't draw lines.

ok, what's buying milk at a corner shop a slippery slope to?

The extermination and/or enslavement of all mammals.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#626

Post by kjkjadksj »

YZF wrote: post #490

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/court-idf-reser... This was just on the news: "A reservist suspected of using classified information to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site served as a major in the Israeli Air Force, a Tel Aviv Court reveals. The defendant was indicted alongside his alleged accomplice last month on severe security offenses, as well as bribery and obstruction of justice, after the…

If you thought that was bad look at spx futures before trump iran announcement. $1.5b placement made 5 mins before trump spoke.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#627

Post by cowpig »

hunterpayne wrote: post #455
cowpig wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance is usually for things that primarily affect the purchaser?

There is no law that requires that and plenty of policies are bought that don't directly effect the purchaser in the way you imply.

And in some of those cases they can warp incentives, right?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#628

Post by [deleted] »

dang wrote: post #433
taurath wrote: post #94

The entire country seems built on taking advantage of people, from my vantage point right now. Whether it’s attention, drugs, or business/legal leverage, everyone is out for advantage and they’re not even pretending to care about people they affect.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47535377 .

[deleted]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#629

Post by DeathArrow »

>A 2023 Wall Street Journal poll found that Americans are pulling away from practically every value that once defined national life—patriotism, religion, community, family. Young people care less than their parents about marriage, children, or faith. But nature, abhorring a vacuum, is filling the moral void left by retreating institutions with the market. Money has become our final virtue.

That does not only explain gambling but explains many things. And it's not just about the US, it's about the whole West.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#630

Post by pilgrim0 »

superxpro12 wrote: post #619

The final conclusion about the evolving and rising focus on "money" as a core value is interesting, and one that seems to make sense to me. I think most people before the age of information found meaning in life in these non-monetary "beliefs"... religion, community engagement, etc. Mostly to the benefit of the wealthy class. I think people are finally waking up to the fact that the wealthy (parasite) class have been…

But now the desire for earthly riches took a role similar to religion and it is being weaponized to extract even more wealth from the working class.
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