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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#451

Post by defrost »

skyyler wrote: post #445
mcmcmc wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strawmen aren’t particularly persuasive either. If I said “people who think murder is okay are sociopaths” would you have a problem?

Murder is definitionally killing that isn't okay. That makes your statement a bit strange, from a logical standpoint. There are people that think killing is okay, you're almost definitely one of them. It's just, there's a very specific set of contexts where killing is considered okay. For example, a police sniper taking out an active shooter at a sports event would probably be nearly universally considered a justifie…

Murder is definitionally intentional killing that isn't okay.

Intent and justification both matter in common law; manslaughter covers killing that isn't okay that lacks intent to kill, and that often comes in degrees of severity.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#452

Post by bombcar »

_DeadFred_ wrote: post #218
socalgal2 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

Alcohol, especially hard alcohol, used to have limits on advertising. Baseball is now literally sponsored by/partnered with Polymarket. https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-mlb-names-po... Physical cards don't have the same 'whale' issue as electronic gambling/games on a phone that are designed to get you exactly to the point where you go 'ok, $20 more', that always is your pocket ready to feed that itch.…

You also have an upper limit (which might be surprisingly high) with things like alcohol; nobody is drinking 200 gallons of whiskey a day, they'd be dead.

But nothing really limits how much you can burn gambling in a day. Even per app limits can be worked around with multiple accounts and multiple games.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#453

Post by parpfish »

Gigachad wrote: post #122
apt-apt-apt-apt wrote: post #90

If you wager in a prediction market, isn't it expected that there will be some insider trading or thrown results? Because there are clearly people who know when and where bombs will land, and financial incentive to throw results. Thus it makes sense to not participate at all, unless YOU are the one doing the cheating.

Prediction markets are just inside traders profiting off gambling addicts. If you are not an inside trader, you're the loser paying out.

I think we got “lucky” for a while when prediction markets were a small niche interest and they provided a weird novel way of making predictions.

But once they get big enough to attract the attention of people that directly affect the outcomes they will eventually become useless because people will realize the only options are to have inside information or be willing to hand money over with inside info.

The only “fair” outcomes will be things outside human control, like betting on the weather.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#454

Post by bombcar »

zug_zug wrote: post #238
socalgal2 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know 100s of people who've been to vegas and had a good time gambling, not one of them would say "I wish I'd never gambled in the first place". I personally know zero people who gambled so much they regret it. I'm not denying those people exist, but I suspect if you ask everyone, a very small percent have had a strong negative experience

Yes it's a very small % of the population, but it's actually a significant percent of the earnings of these platforms. Just for illustration -- when I worked at Zynga they'd sell in-game purchases for over $10k USD for virtual items because there were people who just couldn't help themselves, and those "whales" were actually the bulk of the profit of the company. That's why these platforms should have mandatory sane…

It has to be regulated outside of the platform, because otherwise you just get people using multiple platforms.

If the maximum you could spend gambling each day was $20 across all online platforms, you'd not really have an issue.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#455

Post by hunterpayne »

cowpig wrote: post #119
Jblx2 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that different from regular old insurance?

Insurance is usually for things that primarily affect the purchaser?

There is no law that requires that and plenty of policies are bought that don't directly effect the purchaser in the way you imply.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#456

Post by bombcar »

nfin wrote: post #271
socalgal2 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

an added negative aspect of going further down the banning path is: it lessens the need (or signal) to improve education, or does it not? Not talking about the theory part of education, more the parts that are not handled well in schools like e.g. (!) habits and understanding better what is behind your daily actions (often “Glaubenssätze” are the reason). Many important parts of education is assumed to happen at home…

This is definitely an aspect, but it's also a continuum - there are some people who will "never" be able to be educated out of addiction. Something needs to be done to protect them (or we just admit there's a subclass of human who exists to feed other parasitic ones).

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#457

Post by parpfish »

hydroflame7 wrote: post #4

'Predictions' market is the silliest loophole for gambling. Honestly, more surprised Fanduel, DraftKings and the like who have spent millions on lobbying and buying licenses, are not fighting tooth and nail on this.

I thought the “daily fantasy” loophole was pretty silly too.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#458

Post by parpfish »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #303
cryptoegorophy wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there is a kid’s legal version! They sell them in Walmart - Pokémon packs. I don’t know how any of this is legal in a civilized country.

I have mixed feelings being a parent now. It can be fun to get a mystery box or pack. But it does feed on the anticipation and rush of surprise. Kids seem to lack the self control to stop. Video games seem the worst to me since they're so intangible it's easier to get carried away before others notice.

I feel so guilty about how often I begged my parents for new magic, Star Wars ccg, or battletech booster packs.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#459

Post by bombcar »

hunterpayne wrote: post #418
closewith wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars kill more than guns. In most countries, but not in the US.

Just some context because gun violence studies are probably the most manipulated data sets in history. The two numbers (auto deaths and gun deaths) are pretty close to each other and different policies can and do push one above the other. - Most of those gun deaths are suicides and the vast majority would happen anyway without guns. - This wasn't true before about 2015 and the change (increase in non-suicide gun deat…

Not to get into a gunfight in the gambling hall, but:

> Most of those gun deaths are suicides and the vast majority would happen anyway without guns.

Apparently any form of obstacle between a suicidal person and their gun greatly reduces successful suicides.

Things like the gun being in a safe that McSuicidepants owns, operates, and can get in with a fingerprint. Things like the bullets being on the other side of the room.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#460

Post by Chris2048 »

haritha-j wrote: post #159
Chris2048 wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does someone with a mere $10 stake have the opportunity to contribute to the cause of a $10mil disaster? Realistically, they'd have to be far more connected to the event, and as such, far more exposed to some kind of risk.

Pessimistically, i imagine that's what they meant by "enormous asymmetry between the cost to create/build and the cost to destroy". Like its a lot easier to destroy an art piece in a museum than to create one.

That simply describes entropy. I don't know what the example of someone putting a wager on an event represents.
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