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The mutation that helps Delta spread

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#621

Post by stakkur »

stakkur wrote: post #333
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

Current breakthrough rate in the US is .004%, including Delta. In fact, vaccines are generally working as well or better than expected against all known variants.

For the inevitable Reddit-like downvoting above, I invite you to research it yourself: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#622

Post by dang »

volfied wrote: post #146
johnbaker92 wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to "science": - Lockdowns should have stopped covid. - Masks should have stopped covid. - Vaccines should have stopped covid. - "Health" passports and those ridiculous mandates should have stopped covid. The fact is, we're two years down the road and we're still talking about this virus - so "true" science (that advocated by governments / media I imagine?) is obviously not working. Time to take a step back…

You're acting in bad faith and you know it. You can't just say "lockdowns/masks/vaccines should have stopped covid, but they didn't", when you know that a lot of people out there refused to mask up, refused to quarantine and refused to get the vaccine. People with your thinking are the reason we're still in this pandemic.

Attacking another user like this will get you banned here, regardless of how wrong they are or you feel they are. Please review the rules and stick to them when posting to HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

I realize emotions have been running high on this topic for a long time now, but that's a reason to be more mindful of the rules. As they say:

"Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#623

Post by comeondude »

marton78 wrote: post #546
comeondude wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn’t focus on the present reality. If the pandemic becomes endemic then it’s definitely worthwhile to have that dialogue. However our house is on fire right now in front of us. I feel like it’s important to be curious about working together to find a solution together RIGHT NOW - instead of worrying about far off scenarios.

I don't think that's the case. It's about time to say goodbye to the illusion that we're ever going to extinguish this fire. It's seems to me the COVID is about to be become endemic, this is the new normal. It's not a far off scenario any more, so it does make sense to have this discussion, right now.

Been mulling over what I really wanted to say … This is the par for the course on hacker news to have this kind intellectual conversations, exploring potential spaces.

However, what I was trying to convey is … it’s about being friends to each other right now, as in one big human family. And doing the right thing - which means coming together to have a conversation about how to extinguish this fire. I mean, we eliminated small pox. What happened to that human spirit of cooperation?

And to me, talking about what-ifs at this level doesn’t really address the underlying issue which is … people don’t want to figure out how to help each other - this is what we need right now otherwise it’s just another layer of drama that distracts us from what’s in front of us.

Edit : we already have a solution, which is basically - vax and mask up - we literally have people dying by the hundreds if not the thousands daily - but it’s always the government that’s the problem - and thinking about mask mandates 10 years down the road is like if “sir, our neighborhoos is on fire … can you please grab that bucket and help out” was met with “but What if it goes on for another week? Should we all be beholden to keep on filling and carrying the buckets? My house over there is fine why should I worry about that? I don’t really need to help out right now? I’m just worried that i will be forced to lug buckets forever”

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#624

Post by jmfldn »

tunesmith wrote: post #300
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

"Selective pressure". I find this phrase really confusing, because I think people use it differently. I'm still trying to nail down my own knowledge about this, but here's the gist I have so far. Viruses are not like bacteria. Bacteria can mutate in direct response to antibiotics. Viruses cannot mutate in direct response to vaccines. Some people use "selection pressure" to describe what happens with bacteria and anti…

My understanding of selection pressure in relation to viruses is something like viruses that escape the body's defences where those defences are strengthened. Eg if lots of people have antibodies triggered by a vaccine then it favours those viruses that avoid that immune response and infect the host.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#625

Post by jimmaswell »

Dyac wrote: post #541
midasuni wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IFR for flu is 0.1% [0] - catch it and you’ve got a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying. That’s far higher than the IFR for covid if you’ve been vaccinated. If you’re in a country where everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then it’s time to move on. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-seasona...

What about people who can't be vaccinated? My sister in law is chronically ill and, according to her doctors, not well enough to be vaccinated. It means she is still having to isolate as much as possible. Are you saying we should give up on protecting people like her (sacrifice her?) for the convenience of others?

People with peanut allergies stay out of Five Guys, and people with compromised immune systems will have to take their own precautions as they always have before COVID. You can still elect to wear an N95 and whatever else as long as you want, but you can't expect the whole world around you to stop for you.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#626

Post by jimmaswell »

BjoernKW wrote: post #189
hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next. The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRN…

Wouldn't we not need 3 if they'd install UV air filters?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#627

Post by andrekandre »

lambdaba wrote: post #582
andrekandre wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why does improving vascular function help with dealing with covid? > etiology of Covid is closely linked to vascular health... any links about that? im curious to take a look

If you look up "covid vascular" you'll find plenty of references. Seeing how it affects most people with chronic conditions associated with such problems (hypertension, diabetes), I'm convinced it's a correct assessment.

interesting, thanks, ill take a look

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#628

Post by BjoernKW »

jimmaswell wrote: post #626
BjoernKW wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next. The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRN…

Wouldn't we not need 3 if they'd install UV air filters?

On public transport? Where people are getting on and off the train or bus every few minutes and you don't have a closed system?

I don't know about the specifics of UV air filters but I'm not sure they'd be an alternative in this particular scenario. They seem to be more useful in situations where the same people are in the same room for a prolonged period of time.

I'm all in favour of small, incremental improvements. Those can be a huge contributing factor, so we don't have to wield the blunt instrument that is lockdowns anymore.

Using air filters probably is more of such an additional improvement, rather than a complete solution in its own right.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#629

Post by tehjoker »

tehjoker wrote: post #22
f38zf5vdt wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Measles is estimated to be about 300% more infectious than the delta variant, so if it surpassed measles it would be the most contagious viral disease known to man. It's already pretty close to what is assumed to be the "ceiling".

300% is still a lot of room to grow. Delta is only about twice as bad as the wild type strain.

Looking at the measles wikipedia article:

"Furthermore, measles's reproductive number estimates vary beyond the frequently cited range of 12 to 18.[15] The NIH quote this 2017 paper saying: "[a] review in 2017 identified feasible measles R0 values of 3.7–203.3"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#630

Post by ak217 »

criticaltinker wrote: post #132
tomrod wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please share some scientific citations showing natural immunity gives better protection than vaccines. This runs counter to what I'm hearing from my virologist sources.

There is no scientific consensus that naturally acquired immunity gives better protection than vaccines. Two facts that are trending toward consensus in the scientific literature: A) Naturally infected individuals who recover will acquire robust and durable immunity [1][2] B) Natural infection induces an immune response that is mostly similar but slightly different than the immune response induced by vaccination. The…

> In summary many people hypothesize that natural infection is better because it induces a broader and more balance antibody response, but the literature has not established consensus that this is necessarily "better" in terms of health outcomes for individuals.

Great summary - I have seen no evidence that natural immunity is better. The opposite could be true. A nucelocapsid-specific immune response cannot be used to kill live virus (the nucleocapsid is not accessible for binding on the surface of a live virus). This means natural immunity will result in an intense off-target immune response (in addition to an intense on-target one for the spike). That off-target response elevates the chances of collateral tissue damage (cytokine storm).

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