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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#541

Post by Dyac »

midasuni wrote: post #535
mynegation wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it may all look like small potatoes, but this is HN and you are two orders of magnitude off. 0.01% is pretty close to annual death rate from flu in pre-COVID years [1] so the situation that "one hundred times worse than the current situation" will make it 100 hundred times worse (i.e. significantly worse) than seasonal influenza. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

IFR for flu is 0.1% [0] - catch it and you’ve got a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying. That’s far higher than the IFR for covid if you’ve been vaccinated. If you’re in a country where everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated, then it’s time to move on. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-seasona...

What about people who can't be vaccinated? My sister in law is chronically ill and, according to her doctors, not well enough to be vaccinated. It means she is still having to isolate as much as possible.

Are you saying we should give up on protecting people like her (sacrifice her?) for the convenience of others?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#542

Post by Closi »

nitrogen wrote: post #295
Closi wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asking because I've had "long covid" since long before there was a COVID Well that isn’t “Long Covid” then. Symptoms can come from a variety of causes, and just because you suffered some of the same symptoms unrelated to a Covid infection doesn’t mean that others won’t experience similar symptoms after Covid.

So what are the percentages of people who will have long-term symptoms from Covid, how does that compare in severity and frequency to other respiratory diseases, and if it wasn't something people cared about before Covid, why do they care now?

> So what are the percentages of people who will have long-term symptoms from Covid

Im from the UK, so for rates here see https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan... although I’m sure the USA will have their own stats.

> how does that compare in severity and frequency to other respiratory diseases

I’m not sure and that’s a very wide question, but the main difference is we have never had such a large amount of the population get a respiratory disease so quickly because of the transmissability.

> if it wasn't something people cared about before Covid, why do they care now?

Some people cared about it before Covid, and now more people care about it because it’s becoming more prevalent with the spread of Covid.

I mean to ask the same question - why didn’t people really care about respiratory viruses until about 2 years ago?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#543

Post by zpeti »

Jeema101 wrote: post #392
dcolkitt wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

Can all the people advocating for an IMO completely dystopic society where everywhere our faces are covered, point me to some peer reviewed, legit studies about masks actually working? Especially cloth masks that 80% of people use?

The only legit study ive seen is the danish one that shows masks basically do nothing to stop the spread of aerosol transmission, which COVID is.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#544

Post by nine_k »

mbalex99 wrote: post #526
nine_k wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you notice the distinct lack of flu outbreak last winter? I suppose marks and social distancing just prevented it altogether.

Did states that didn’t shut down schools or businesses see normal rates of flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm It seems like it just disappeared regardless of restrictions.

It could have disappeared from Europe because the new version did not arrive from South-East Asia, where it normally originates. The anti-covid measures there might have prevented the world outbreak.

The previous flu version is not as potent due to vaccination and people having had it, thus the herd immunity is achieved.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#545

Post by rtpg »

dehrmann wrote: post #442
MaxBarraclough wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Slightly off-topic: shouldn't the 'new normal' be to wear N95/N99 masks? We know they're far more effective, and there's been plenty of time to ramp up production. I don't see why the 'normal' option is to wear a non-medical mask. It's also surprising that societies are entirely incapable of doing a hard lockdown for 3 weeks with mandatory testing at the end. I imagine that would be enough to reduce the case count to…

It's just hygiene theater to make people feel better. 95% of time when I see masks in a situation that isn't particularly risky (outdoors), it's not an N95. People do it because it makes them feel safer and to virtue signal. What's bizarre is that it's rare for public health officials to care, either. It makes me think they're actually very effective (which I doubt with delta), they want to people to feel safe to kee…

You think doctors wear surgical masks as hygiene theater too?

There have been countless looks at mask efficiency over the past year. "Normal" masks cut infenction risk in half. Yeah it's not 100%, but it's 50%!

Acting like everything is an "all or nothing" solution is going to be the death of us.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#546

Post by marton78 »

comeondude wrote: post #497
betwixthewires wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're misdirecting and missing the point entirely. While I'm not quite anti mask like the parent comment, it is an important question to consider, it is always a trade off. What severity warrant what measures? If there's still covid like now in 10 years, will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire? Is this feasible? If not, then when do we stop? Will the people advocating it ever tell us to stop? If not,…

This doesn’t focus on the present reality. If the pandemic becomes endemic then it’s definitely worthwhile to have that dialogue. However our house is on fire right now in front of us. I feel like it’s important to be curious about working together to find a solution together RIGHT NOW - instead of worrying about far off scenarios.

I don't think that's the case. It's about time to say goodbye to the illusion that we're ever going to extinguish this fire. It's seems to me the COVID is about to be become endemic, this is the new normal. It's not a far off scenario any more, so it does make sense to have this discussion, right now.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#547

Post by Aeolun »

zpeti wrote: post #543
Jeema101 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

Can all the people advocating for an IMO completely dystopic society where everywhere our faces are covered, point me to some peer reviewed, legit studies about masks actually working? Especially cloth masks that 80% of people use? The only legit study ive seen is the danish one that shows masks basically do nothing to stop the spread of aerosol transmission, which COVID is.

Well, that took me much less time than I actually expected.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72798-7

It does note that non-medical (e.g. cloth) masks may be less effective, but whether those are used a lot seems to depend on environment (nobody seems to use them here).

Edit: One more for cloth masks https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#548

Post by foldr »

betwixthewires wrote: post #426
foldr wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hundreds of millions of people have received vaccines that (either directly or indirectly) expose them to the spike protein in question, so clearly it can’t be dangerous.

Please tell me you're joking.

OP is probably making some kind of reference to this: https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n954 I think they’ve got things a bit mixed up re the spike protein being the crucial element, though.

We now know beyond doubt that the risk of blood clots associated with any of the major vaccines is tiny, and very probably zero. Despite a lot of scare stories in the media, there has never really been any good evidence of a link at all.

To suggest at this point that any of the vaccines used in the West is “kind of dangerous” is just to say something obviously untrue. If the vaccines were dangerous we’d be seeing their harmful effects on a massive scale by now.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#549

Post by zpeti »

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #476
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

I'll get down voted but... COVID and it's variants now have a growing reserve in the mammal animal populations of the world. If we decide to continue this fight we must go in eyes wide open that this is an unwinnable war that will go on forever with ever new versions of vaccine immune COVID. The problem is people believeing it will be over. And using that belief to justify opinions and action against others who belie…

There is nothing untrue in this statement, shameful that you are getting downvoted.

People just can’t accept that COVID zero is impossible. The only way it could happen is if we find a prophylactic drug, and we all take it together, but this seems like a dream too.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#550

Post by zpeti »

Aeolun wrote: post #547
zpeti wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can all the people advocating for an IMO completely dystopic society where everywhere our faces are covered, point me to some peer reviewed, legit studies about masks actually working? Especially cloth masks that 80% of people use? The only legit study ive seen is the danish one that shows masks basically do nothing to stop the spread of aerosol transmission, which COVID is.

Well, that took me much less time than I actually expected. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72798-7 It does note that non-medical (e.g. cloth) masks may be less effective, but whether those are used a lot seems to depend on environment (nobody seems to use them here). Edit: One more for cloth masks https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

I’m sceptical. This study measures aerosols going into a funnel centimeters away. It is also done with 10 people. This is a highly artificial situation. They even admit that they didn’t measure aerosol escapes at the top and side of masks.

What happens when you spend 15 minutes in a small room with a COVID infected person with a mask? When all side escaped aerosols spread in the room? Or in a shopping center with 10 COVID infected people? That’s the real life situation. And in that situation I’ve not seen any studies done.

To me this is basic physics. Aerosols float in the air. Any particles escaping the direct surface of the mask will float into the air. Just like dust. Except viruses are even smaller and float more. Any closed environment is likely to be saturated with virus fairly quickly, and if they aren’t filtered by a kn95 mask you will breath them in.

Edit: and I think with the new variants we are in a worse and worse situation. The initial variant needed 15 minutes of exposure to infect you apparently. I’m pretty sure delta is much much less. A few minutes or under a minute in a saturated room, mask or no mask, is prob enough

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