Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#601

Post by SomeoneFromCA » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:28 PM UTC

remote_phone wrote: post #578

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was some response. Was it sufficient or not - it has never been verified. Attempts to vaccinate animals with SARS vaccines ended with terrible outcomes of ADE.

You’re talking about a vaccine, which was never successfully created for SARS. I’m talking about immune response from those that contracted SARS and recovered. You can’t compare a failed vaccine to actual survivors.

What I am saying is: 1) No one tried to check the suffiency response by attempting to reinfect the person, because that would grossly unethical; unless there was such attempt, we cannot say anything about the reponse, it even might have been cross-reaction from common cold antibodies 2) Even if there was the response, there was high chance of ADE. It does not matter was that immunity acquired through vaccination or natural infection; ADE does not pick and choose; weak immunity causes worse response than no immunity. Having said that, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to produce ADE.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#602

Post by justanotherme » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

In my opinion this sounds extremely good. They say that 94 people got covid. We do not know how many of them were from the placebo group and how many were from the vaccinated group. But the wording "was found to be more than 90% effective" probably means that much more than 85 of the covid-patients came from the placebo group. The reason is that they need to be a few standard deviations away from the mean to make such assumptions with high probability. I think probably at most 2 patients of the 94 covid-patients came from the vaccinated group (only then you could make such a statement with high certainty). And that means that probably the vaccine is more than 97% effective. This would be extremely good news. But let's wait for the data.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#603

Post by dheera » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:30 PM UTC

lbeltrame wrote: post #271

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I'd happily take a shot a year for a decade in return for getting rid of lockdown.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#604

Post by johnrgrace » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:33 PM UTC

vitaflo wrote: post #528

elevenoh wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We'll be seeing the first EUA's by December, and shots in the arm before the end of the year What makes you say that? That's quite fast, no?

They're already manufacturing millions of doses of the drug and have been for months. The military already has an action plan for distributing it nation wide. Realistically they're ready to go right now they are just waiting for FDA approval.

The national academies of Science have been working on a framework for distribution, they've been getting public feedback on their draft since August.

https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/a-framework-for-e...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#605

Post by tinyhouse » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:33 PM UTC

input_sh wrote: post #65

TomGullen wrote: post #2

Great news and the markets are reacting very positively to the news as well which indicates to me this could be the beginning of the end!

Except Zoom's, which fell from 514 to 410 in less than an hour. Really puts the nails in coffin of the whole "we're gonna work more remotely after the pandemic" narrative.

Well, stocks go up and down, nothing new. There are also too many investors who panicky buying and selling without much knowledge of the industries they buy/sell stocks.

Zoom has been doing up ~500% this year. The large fluctuations are expected. Online learning/work will continue to grow regardless of a vaccine. It's not going to be in a crazy rate like it has been this year because of covid. I'm not even talking about companies, cause that's a no brainer. I'm talking about education and hospitals. For example, the convenience of having a virtual appointment is great for both doctors and patients and it's not going away no matter what.

My opinion about Zoom. Selling because of a vaccine is pretty stupid. You should sell if you think they are over valued and not be able to compete with the big companies long term. One thing to pay attention to is their future plans. If they don't have plans to expand their product line I would worry long term. There's no problem for a company to pay for Zoom for video calls and for another company for things like slack/docs etc. But when you have companies like Google/Microsoft who package and integrate everything together, and can give you a good price for it too, then it's a concern. Google/Microsoft make many subpar products, and this year zoom showed it nicely. But they keep copying the important features and will eventually close the gap.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#606

Post by tachyonbeam » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:36 PM UTC

DataGata wrote: post #520

snarf21 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is good news but I'm worried about the mutation already showing up in minks in Denmark. Minks apparently have a near identical respiratory system. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/denmark-plans-kill-15-mil...

Hence the genociding.

The minkocaust :'(

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#607

Post by bluGill » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:36 PM UTC

jwineinger wrote: post #495

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

I haven't seen much chatter about it, but this will only be prescribed for adults (18+) correct?

I would assume the trials in kids will start soon. Though today I haven't heard of them so far. (kids are hard to test because each age reacts differently)

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#608

Post by tasogare » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:37 PM UTC

berdario wrote: post #467

jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

How does this compare to the chinese vaccine? It's already in use around the world[1], but I haven't heard of how many people gain immunity thanks to it in percentage, nor if that one also requires multiple jabs. 1. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/3/uae-pm-and-dubai-ru...

[flagged]

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#609

Post by bluGill » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:39 PM UTC

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #576

nradov wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not possible to totally eradicate a virus that has animal reservoirs. The virus apparently jumped from bats to humans once before so it will probably happen again. We can't vaccinate all the bats.

Why not? What if we can? How would we do that?

There have been efforts to put vaccines into treats that various animals would eat. However not all vaccines can be delivered in this way, and even of those that can, getting the right animals to eat them is tricky.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#610

Post by sandworm101 » Mon, Nov 09, 2020, 4:40 PM UTC

mumblemumble wrote: post #429

gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

I'll line up to get a vaccine because I trust in the scientific/medical community. I haven't installed my local contact-tracing app because ...

1) When I did try to install it said I need to update to a new OS, meaning my five year old phone likely wasn't good enough. 2) My local app doesn't provide alerts to me rather it alerts government contact tracers who today stated that they are only responding to alerts regarding medical/care home workers. I am neither. 3) My phone is not with me at work, the place where I interact with the most people by far, rendering the entire scheme basically useless.

But yes, I would get a vaccine in a heartbeat.