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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#511

Post by lki876 »

Tor3 wrote: post #421
matz1 wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wake up long time ago when I realized the virus is not as dangerous as the media reported it. You too should wake up right now and live your life. Stop being afraid.

Why shouldn't I be afraid? If my parents get infected there's a close to 100% chance that they'll die, due to their existing conditions. And I have to visit them, so do others. There's a real risk of infection there.

Maybe you should be, but if they are in bad shape, the 100% figure will apply to many diseases. On a long enough time line, they will of course die, just like you and everyone else.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#512

Post by anovikov »

tomerico wrote: post #510
anovikov wrote: post #182

So, out of 43538 participants, 94 got sick in both groups (who got vaccine and who got placebo) together, and this translates to "at least" 90% immunity, with 95% confidence interval. Who remembers statistics well enough to reverse the calculation and find out how many people got sick in both groups? There is a definite integer answer here.

Assuming 50% split between placebo and vaccine group, it's a 9:1 ratio - so 85 : 9 for Placebo : Vaccine COVID case.

That would be middle point - that is 50% chances that actual reliability is better than 90% reliable, 50% that it's worse. But we have 95% confidence interval. This is what my question was about.

On infinitely large number of cases, the numbers will be the same. But we only have 94. I think it's about 2 to 3 cases that they actually got from the group that got vaccine, but not sure.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#513

Post by aj_g »

aphextron wrote: post #71
ro-_-b wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember that in March somebody posted here an entry saying that mutation of the virus will make vaccinations only useful in the short term. Were these concerns already addressed at this stage? We have seen mutations due to minks recently which could make the vaccinations ineffective. These mutations might have been controlled but similar situations may arise in the next years. For these reasons I am not entirely s…

>I remember that in March somebody posted here an entry saying that mutation of the virus will make vaccinations only useful in the short term. Were these concerns already addressed at this stage? Regardless of whether the mutations are significant enough to affect vaccine efficacy, it won't likely be a problem. These new mRNA vaccines have a development/production time measured in weeks and months, not years. It cha…

Fascinating--do you have any links to further reading/watching about this?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#514

Post by standardUser »

TomGullen wrote: post #2

Great news and the markets are reacting very positively to the news as well which indicates to me this could be the beginning of the end!

I think the data is what indicates this is the beginning of the end. All of the leading Western vaccine candidates showed very strong Phase 2 results. Now, we have the first vaccine showing very strong initial Phase 3 results. This is basically the best case scenario.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#517

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

TomVDB wrote: post #498
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

“Anywhere” as in “the western world”? Because contact tracing seems to work very well at scale in Asia.

I would say most specifically in the US.

It's a cultural thing. Asian cultures vary dramatically between each other (don't mistake Koreans, Chinese, or Japanese for each other -it won't end well), but they have one thing in common: They have a real sense of every person is part of a collective. Maybe it's because most Asian societies are quite crowded.

The US, on the other hand, has a real sense of everyone is an individual, to the point of actually considering people that follow rules and norms to be "sheeple" (see "antimaskers").

Europeans seem to be in the middle.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#518

Post by mjmahone17 »

mumblemumble wrote: post #429
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

> According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview.

More than anything I suspect this is a result of allowing so much unfiltered spam calls. If you only get one unexpected, unknown call a month you will almost always answer it. If you get three a day you will almost never answer it.

We are allowing private businesses and scammers to steal the “commons” of our societal attention. We are doing a very poor job of keeping useful communications channels open: almost every communication medium people rely on for important information gets cluttered with must-ignore spam, making it decreasingly likely an important message is actually received.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#519

Post by borispavlovic »

mumblemumble wrote: post #429
gizmo wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

There's also participation on the contact side. In Western countries, surveys indicate we can't convince even half of people to install a contact tracing smartphone app. According to my state's department of health, practical experience indicates we can't convince even half of people to pick up the phone and respond to a contact tracing interview. > Covid19 would also be over if people with symptoms would just stay h…

don't know about other countries but in Switzerland somehow people do not get the codes for Covid app with positive test results. even if they had the app installed and running the crucial step of entering the official code is failing

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#520

Post by DataGata »

snarf21 wrote: post #430
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

This is good news but I'm worried about the mutation already showing up in minks in Denmark. Minks apparently have a near identical respiratory system. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/denmark-plans-kill-15-mil...

Hence the genociding.
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