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A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

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Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#61

Post by fastball »

AlexandrB wrote: post #46
genidoi wrote: post #16

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing. The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go. But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided preci…

The tower catches are great, but the payload rating has been reduced several times now[1] and with it the economic argument for how Starship will make launching much cheaper than today as well as suitability for lunar/Mars launches. For Starship to be revolutionary enough for this kind of valuation it has to not just work, but outperform current solutions. SpaceX has basically admitted as much by promising Starship 2…

That article is two years old. In traditional space launch terms that is a very short amount of time, but in SpaceX terms that's quite a while. They've already progressed to Starship 2 since then and are going to launch Starship 3 imminently (slated this month), which has Raptor v3 engines onboard and come with the efficiency gains you are talking about.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#62

Post by lxgr »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #33
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

> Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ No? Contractually, maybe. But legally you can do whatever you want with index constructions.

Are indexes not covered by copyright, even if you don't mention the underlying data source by name?

If they are, you'd only get a license when accepting their terms.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#63

Post by malfist »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #33
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

> Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ No? Contractually, maybe. But legally you can do whatever you want with index constructions.

You might be surprised to learn that the stock markets are heavily regulated.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#64

Post by gigatexal »

taurath wrote: post #32
malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

When index funds became such a default I knew they’d change the rules. They’re taking everything thats not nailed down. A wealth tax is the only way, it cannot continue like this.

Yeah imma get out of index and hold my basket and just rebalance. This is dumb. Why bend the rules for a trillionaire?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#66

Post by lxgr »

sharemywin wrote: post #2

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

But consider that they will eventually own the entire observable universe excluding Earth! /s

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#67

Post by gruez »

taurath wrote: post #32
malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

When index funds became such a default I knew they’d change the rules. They’re taking everything thats not nailed down. A wealth tax is the only way, it cannot continue like this.

Who's "they"? Billionaires? Wall st? SpaceX insiders and investors?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#68

Post by gizajob »

saadn92 wrote: post #22

The xAI piece is the one that stands out to me. $258B for a lab that's burning $1.46B/quarter against $430M revenue, valued almost entirely on a merger anchor from four months ago.

It’s absolutely ludicrous that xAI is thrown into the mix at that valuation. They’re not even a player in AI other than providing Grok slop for twitter.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#69

Post by germinalphrase »

tliptay wrote: post #51

Grok: lots of competitors & my 4th choice in LLM models. Starship: zero competitors & potentially makes humans inter-planetary. Seems crazy if investors put more value on Grok.

“potentially makes humans inter-planetary”

What is the realistic, non-science fiction appeal of this?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#70

Post by tliptay »

malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

Wow! This comment inspired me to dig deeper.

After 20+ years in the market, today I learned: "The S&P 500 is a float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index."

So presumably an S&P 500 index fund is not disadvantaged, since it is tracking a float-adjusted index, i.e. the weight of SpaceX will be tiny if its float is tiny.

Or, is there a nuance that I'm missing?

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