A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses • Hacker News Board

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#31

Post by enslavedrobot » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC

genidoi wrote: post #16

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing. The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go. But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided preci…

The viability of direct to cell connectivity at scale is unproven. This is actually the core value of SpaceX in the next 3-5 years.

The other core value generation product will be financial transactions. It is unproven whether X money will be adopted for friction free transactions across national boundaries and whether the company can compete in the financial services sector.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#32

Post by taurath » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

When index funds became such a default I knew they’d change the rules.

They’re taking everything thats not nailed down. A wealth tax is the only way, it cannot continue like this.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#33

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #11

yandie wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now I need a fund that will honor a year of price discovery rather than 15 days. Any recommendations?

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

> Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ

No? Contractually, maybe. But legally you can do whatever you want with index constructions.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#34

Post by JumpCrisscross » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

proteal wrote: post #20

It’s also one of the thinnest floats IPO’ing. They’re only selling less than 5% of the company. That introduces a lot of sensitivity in the valuation, not to mention there exists a bit of game theory around fund managers needing to join in to maintain nominal returns with their peers. Check out Matt Levine commentary, which goes into more detail (SpaceX Indexing) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-…

> They’re only selling less than 5% of the company

Wait for the lock-up terms.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#35

Post by maxerickson » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:41 PM UTC

genidoi wrote: post #16

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing. The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go. But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided preci…

How are they doing with their mass to orbit projections?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#36

Post by spprashant » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC

dmoy wrote: post #14

elevation wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any funds you'd recommend that would preserve the legacy 1 year watch period?

The float adjustment probably handles this for you? The tiny amount of float of that $1.75T means that for any large total market or s&p or whatever fund (VTI, SPY, etc), SpaceX is going to be a minuscule fraction of the fund. Apple has a float of >99%. SpaceX is going to come out with 3-4% float. Since all big serious total market / whatever index funds are float adjusted, this means that SpaceX will be treated more…

I am not smart with stock legal-ese but I pasting something I found in a different article here.

> To balance index integrity and investability, Nasdaq proposes a new approach for including and weighting low-float securities (those below 20% free float). Each low-float security’s weight will be adjusted to five times its free float percentage, capped at 100%. Securities with more than 20% free float will continue to be weighted at full, eligible listed market capitalization, while those below 20% free float will be weighted proportionally to preserve investability.

> The rule reportedly includes a 5x float multiplier for low-float stocks, which would require passive vehicles to treat SpaceX as if it had significantly more tradable shares than actually exist, essentially forcing funds to chase the price.

It sounds to me like a way to increase demand for low float stocks by treating the float higher than it actually is. Glad to hear the explanations about this.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#37

Post by Izikiel43 » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC

genidoi wrote: post #16

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing. The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go. But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided preci…

They caught it 3 times already!?

I missed 2 and 3 it seems.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#38

Post by jdross » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC

boringg wrote: post #18

Anyone in this thread know how much SpaceX investors got diluted when they bought xAI/GROK?

It was 1T post merger with xAI being 250B of it, SpaceX being 750B

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#39

Post by bluecalm » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC

charcircuit wrote: post #15

malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

What law prevents someone from choosing to buy stocks from the NASDAQ 100 however they want for a fund?

You need enough customers to make it profitable at reasonably low expense ratio.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#40

Post by danny_codes » Thu, Apr 02, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC

dmoy wrote: post #14

elevation wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any funds you'd recommend that would preserve the legacy 1 year watch period?

The float adjustment probably handles this for you? The tiny amount of float of that $1.75T means that for any large total market or s&p or whatever fund (VTI, SPY, etc), SpaceX is going to be a minuscule fraction of the fund. Apple has a float of >99%. SpaceX is going to come out with 3-4% float. Since all big serious total market / whatever index funds are float adjusted, this means that SpaceX will be treated more…

Which is how Elon gets away with fleecing the retails. Someone with 100k in VTI is giving $100 to Elon at a p/e of 1000.

You have to hand it to him, he’s the best grifter we’ve seen in years.