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A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

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Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#11

Post by malfist »

yandie wrote: post #9
malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

Now I need a fund that will honor a year of price discovery rather than 15 days. Any recommendations?

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#12

Post by rvz »

All these IPOs are extremely bearish and mirroring the 2019 race-for-the-exit IPOs out there.

Of course once again, you are "not allowed" to be early into pre-IPO companies which is where the actual money is made.

The moment several companies start IPOing, you are already too late for those multiples and have to wait for a massive crash until these stocks reach all time lows after IPO.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#13

Post by ddp26 »

paxys wrote: post #8

Everyone is so confident in their reading of tea leaves

I read your comment as being glib, but in forecasting this I was really puzzled how much to anchor to how analysts tend to value these businesses.

I ended up largely deferring to them, e.g. predicting the public will value xAI at $258 billion ($222b - $310b) at time of IPO, even though I've elsewhere been skeptical that xAI should be valued like a frontier AI lab.

It's a keynesian beauty contest

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#14

Post by dmoy »

elevation wrote: post #6
arealaccount wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to commentators on other threads people with any index funds will be automatically buying, no need to trip over ourselves

Any funds you'd recommend that would preserve the legacy 1 year watch period?

The float adjustment probably handles this for you? The tiny amount of float of that $1.75T means that for any large total market or s&p or whatever fund (VTI, SPY, etc), SpaceX is going to be a minuscule fraction of the fund.

Apple has a float of >99%. SpaceX is going to come out with 3-4% float. Since all big serious total market / whatever index funds are float adjusted, this means that SpaceX will be treated more like a company with $45B market cap, not $1.5T or whatever.

If you're buying most index funds, you should literally not care about this.

If you buy VTI, then SpaceX is going to be like what, <0.1% of the fund? That is noise.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#15

Post by charcircuit »

malfist wrote: post #11
yandie wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now I need a fund that will honor a year of price discovery rather than 15 days. Any recommendations?

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

What law prevents someone from choosing to buy stocks from the NASDAQ 100 however they want for a fund?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#16

Post by genidoi »

> Starship at $170B is pure option value on technology still in advanced testing.

The argument that Starship is somehow an experimental/unproven technology that might fail to materialise was absurd but plausible sounding before flight 1, there were many new technologies simultaneously being deployed to a single launch system in one go.

But after 3 tower catches of the booster demonstrating centimetres of guided precision of the entire stack, this is becoming a tired argument.

I know the author is not making that case at all here, but it seems like one the core reasons to undervalue SpaceX is that Starship might not work out, and this all sounds exactly like how reusability might not work out for the Falcon 9 from 10 years ago.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#17

Post by davey48016 »

charcircuit wrote: post #15
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Legally, any fund that tracks the NASDAQ 100 must follow the rules set by NASDAQ, so you'd want something that is neither a total market index, nor tracks the NASDAQ. Something like an S&P500 index would work

What law prevents someone from choosing to buy stocks from the NASDAQ 100 however they want for a fund?

You can make a mutual fund or ETF with any stocks you want, you just can't call it a NASDAQ 100 fund if you're not tracking the NASDAQ 100 index.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#20

Post by proteal »

It’s also one of the thinnest floats IPO’ing. They’re only selling less than 5% of the company. That introduces a lot of sensitivity in the valuation, not to mention there exists a bit of game theory around fund managers needing to join in to maintain nominal returns with their peers.

Check out Matt Levine commentary, which goes into more detail (SpaceX Indexing) https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-31/are...

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