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A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

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Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#3

Post by malfist »

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits.

No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#4

Post by arealaccount »

sharemywin wrote: post #2

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

According to commentators on other threads people with any index funds will be automatically buying, no need to trip over ourselves

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#5

Post by ddp26 »

sharemywin wrote: post #2

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

Yeah, it's wild. But it's not like the P/E should be 30, what do you think would be fair?

That's the thing about SpaceX, some businesses are real businesses that can be modeled in normal ways, like the government launch contracts, and to some degree starlink.

Others, like ~all of xAI, and the starship stuff, are being valued completely independent of revenue. I predict the IPO investors will generally follow the analysis consensus today with those eye-popping numbers.

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#6

Post by elevation »

arealaccount wrote: post #4
sharemywin wrote: post #2

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

According to commentators on other threads people with any index funds will be automatically buying, no need to trip over ourselves

Any funds you'd recommend that would preserve the legacy 1 year watch period?

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#7

Post by heyitsmedotjayb »

arealaccount wrote: post #4
sharemywin wrote: post #2

Not bad for about $12-$16B in total actual revenue. net income probably: $1.5B – $3B P/E:500-1000 Of course people will trip overthemselves to buy it up.

According to commentators on other threads people with any index funds will be automatically buying, no need to trip over ourselves

I remember when this happened with Nortel!

Re: A forecast of the fair market value of SpaceX's businesses

#9

Post by yandie »

malfist wrote: post #3

An passive investors are going to get hosed by this thanks to NASDAQ cooking the rules to favor Elon and his band of misfits. No longer will there be a year of price discovery for index funds, 15 days. Meaning index funds have to buy it at the peak of the hype cycle. Will be a huge wealth transfer from mom and pop retirement accounts to the ultra wealthy.

Now I need a fund that will honor a year of price discovery rather than 15 days. Any recommendations?
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