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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#61

Post by N0b8ez »

dvt wrote: post #44
digging wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? > ignoring the way more value-generating aspects (synthesis, categorization, summarization, etc.) Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. I expect if I knew more precisely what you meant by the other two we'd find examples of those, too. Everybody is trying to find out…

> Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense? John Searle is much smarter than I am and he elaborated plenty on this in the 80s. (But more saliently, I think it's absurd to think our brains, or brains in general, do polynomial curve fitting in any meaningful sense.) > Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. This is true, though the workflow is extremely cumbersome. > People are d…

> But more saliently, I think it's absurd to think our brains, or brains in general, do polynomial curve fitting in any meaningful sense.

Why would an AI need to use the same mechanisms as a human to think? Most machines we create are quite different in character from their natural counterparts (what bird has a propeller?)

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#63

Post by molave »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

As someone who dabbles in creating fiction as a pasttime, it's revolutionary. I can use AI to come up with details for minutiae that I don't have the time nor energy to conceptualize. There's just too many things that are in my head and not enough capabilities to realize them in a pre-AI world. The AI outputs are garbage as-is, but what they come up with already does 80% of the work done. I can do the rest to make it completely fit my needs.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#64

Post by lxgr »

zarzavat wrote: post #28
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

The market cap is irrational and I submit as evidence Llama 3. AI won’t need huge amounts of computing resources. It will need moderate amounts of computing resources. The huge amount of computing resources seen today are the result of immature technology that uses resources inefficiently. As the technology improves, the capability-per-FLOP will increase and AI will move on-device.

Are you suggesting that there will be some future, more efficient architecture of machine learning that'll not be able to make use of extra compute at all (or at least have greatly diminishing returns while doing so)?

Otherwise, I don't see why it wouldn't make sense to continue grabbing as many GPUs as feasible for the foreseeable future, at least until LLMs and other GenAI models have been determined to have plateaued without much doubt.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#65

Post by gizajob »

croes wrote: post #53
gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

AI will help to totally crush all the CO2 emission targets of Google, MS etc.

By crush do you mean it will become sentient and sequester the carbon in the bodies of their meaty workers by killing them all?

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#67

Post by alberth »

gizajob wrote: post #22
alberth wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market is "pricing in" this future potential. With Walmart, it's hard to speculate what ground-breaking future potential they might have that isn't already known.

That’s kind of my point in framing the question like that - we know WalMart and how ubiquitous it is (in America) and how it makes money, and it’s “moat” so it’s not a sexy business, but a totally solid one. So is what the market is pricing in really becoming silly now? I think Nvidia has a huge competitive advantage but I also think it could be undone within 3 years or so given how much money is now at stake. The ot…

> My ultimate worry is that Nvidia ... could pull the whole of the Nasdaq down when it blows

It's already happened the other way.

50% of all S&P 500 growth comes from just 5-companies (Nvidia).

Or said differently, 495-companies can only match what just 5-companies contributed (which Nvidia is 1 of those 5).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-5-stocks-contributed-alm...

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#68

Post by Ologn »

gizajob wrote: post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

I would rather own one Nvidia.

The five most valuable companies in the world are, in order: Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. All very tied to software, or the hardware which software runs on. Walmart is worth less than Facebook, Broadcom and TSMC.

If the past few decades have taught us anything, it is that software is a very good business to be in. Microsoft is the most valuable company in the world for a reason.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#69

Post by ben_w »

okdood64 wrote: post #17
jonatron wrote: post #12

That's about the GDP of France, I can't see how it makes sense.

Why do people compare market cap to a 1 year GDP?

Because they're both measured in terms of money, and humans tend to ignore time-derivatives. (The latter point is also why so many mix up energy and power).

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#70

Post by ben_w »

thefaux wrote: post #7
blackhawkC17 wrote: post #2

Five years ago, Jensen Huang was worth $3 billion. Now he's worth sub $100 billion. Must be nice to go from Scrooge McDuck to ruler-of-the-universe level. 1- https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/05/28/nvidia-ceo...

I don't know. There are some benefits to be sure, but I figure that above some threshold (and 3B is definitely above that threshold) it becomes difficult to make new friends without worrying about their ulterior motives.

The threshold depends where you live; a former partner of mine moved around the world a lot, and in when she was in Nairobi… well, her anecdotes suggest you got that effect from what Americans would consider a middle-class income.
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