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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#21
post #3

Five years ago, Jensen Huang was worth $3 billion. Now he's worth sub $100 billion. Must be nice to go from Scrooge McDuck to ruler-of-the-universe level. 1- https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/05/28/nvidia-ceo...

This wasn't a quick success ... Jensen started Nvidia 31-years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia

I can’t believe I didn’t know until today that Nvidia remains founder lead.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#22
post #9
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

The market is "pricing in" this future potential. With Walmart, it's hard to speculate what ground-breaking future potential they might have that isn't already known.

That’s kind of my point in framing the question like that - we know WalMart and how ubiquitous it is (in America) and how it makes money, and it’s “moat” so it’s not a sexy business, but a totally solid one. So is what the market is pricing in really becoming silly now? I think Nvidia has a huge competitive advantage but I also think it could be undone within 3 years or so given how much money is now at stake. The other side of that is that I wouldn’t want to try and build a better WalMart inside three years.

My ultimate worry is that Nvidia is becoming so overcooked now that it could pull the whole of the Nasdaq down when it blows, and that won’t be good for any of us.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#23
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

Value, no. Hype, yes. This is the Mr. Market theory playing out in real-time.

Long-term, the value of AI (LLMs) as a productivity tool is massive, but if the delusional thinking around things like AGI continues (and the fear-mongering of Ai Is ToO DaNgErOuS), the major players will suffocate that potential and be humbled.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#24
post #10
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? I'm actually quite bearish on AI on the very long term (and as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense), but I do think AI will redefine how we interact with our computers/devices in the short-to-medium term. These days, everyone's too enamored with the generative aspect (which is,…

Funnily enough my bachelors thesis was “Wittgensteinian problems for Artificial General Intelligence” so I also have grounds for being bearish, even though I respect what is happening at the moment and have hope for the future.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#25
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

No, it's not changing my life, it's just impressive ML rebranded.

It hallucinates all the time... It's a toy. Impressive, but still a toy.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#26
post #9
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

The market is "pricing in" this future potential. With Walmart, it's hard to speculate what ground-breaking future potential they might have that isn't already known.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#27
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

There will be a pullback after the initial irrational exuberance, and the big spenders on Nvidia cards will pull back on that spending as the expected returns are not realized (or not fully realized).

Variations of this story repeat over and over and over again throughout the decades of tech.

After the pullback, given some time, AI will realize significant real world value and the overall market will be far larger (15-20 years out). That process takes longer than the exuberance suggests early on.

Nvidia will pull back when that spending decline happens (yes, there will be a drop in their sales, they'll hit a wall and it'll go south for a while). The question is where the wall is at. They're speeding at it like Cisco was during the hype of the dotcom boom (and Cisco was growing at a crazy rate quarter over quarter, accelerating, which is a particularly unsustainable event). Tons of AI customers will die off to go along with the big spenders freezing and or reducing their spending.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#28
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

The market cap is irrational and I submit as evidence Llama 3.

AI won’t need huge amounts of computing resources. It will need moderate amounts of computing resources.

The huge amount of computing resources seen today are the result of immature technology that uses resources inefficiently. As the technology improves, the capability-per-FLOP will increase and AI will move on-device.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#29
post #10
post #5

Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…

> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? I'm actually quite bearish on AI on the very long term (and as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense), but I do think AI will redefine how we interact with our computers/devices in the short-to-medium term. These days, everyone's too enamored with the generative aspect (which is,…

> as a trained philosopher, I don't buy into the whole AGI nonsense

Can you elaborate on why you believe AGI is nonsense?

> ignoring the way more value-generating aspects (synthesis, categorization, summarization, etc.)

Summarization is one of the most common applications of LLMs I see. I expect if I knew more precisely what you meant by the other two we'd find examples of those, too. Everybody is trying to find out what these tools can do and throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. People are doing exactly what one would expect them to do.

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