Cant wait to short this stock!
Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
31–40 of 155 posts
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#32Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
Yes. For the last 20 years. Many of the largest applications aren't ones you're aware of or ever see directly. Most of Google's revenue, to pick one example. For every flashy start-up or cool open source project, there is an army of people quietly delivering 10% relative improvements that drive $100M revenue lift in their particular niche at a huge company.
Right. In 2011 Jeff Dean ran into Andrew Ng in the Google cafeteria, which AFAIK is where a lot of the modern Google AI started happening. AlexNet won the ImageNet challenge in 2012 (which HN was not impressed with at all at the time - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4611830 ). Attention is All You Need was published in 2017. A lot of behind the scenes, invite-only etc. stuff has been happening for years, and only in the past two years do we see DALL-E, Stable Diffusion, Midjourney, ChatGPT, Gemini, Sora etc.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#33That's about the GDP of France, I can't see how it makes sense.
Why do people compare market cap to a 1 year GDP?
This is actually an interesting way to look at it... Can a whole country produce a company like Nvidia in one year? Or how much it will cost to create Nvidia today from scratch, and how long it would take?
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#34Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
The valuation is driven by its huge margins and growth in revenue. It's an inevitable pump sorts.
It can't and won't last. There's just too much margin for players not to compete or design their own chips. The only question for capitalizing is how to time your shorts.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#35Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
I think this is a great question and one I keep mulling over. I've been evaluating paid AI products like Co-pilot to try to determine if there is enough general purpose value there to justify it's cost.
At $360 a year, the productivity benefit doesn't need to be huge to justify the cost, lets say you would probably want to so $500-1,000/yr in expense reduction.
I can say for certain that I have found roughly enough benefit myself in the past year for various tasks such as writing, presentations and the like. Nothing earth shattering mind you, but time has been saved. The question is, does this scale across an organization? Does everyone get leverage out of Copilot if you give it to them, or do only a fraction of advanced early-adopters? Also does the benefit really hit your bottom line, which may be harder to measure accurately.
Personally, I think it is a toss-up right now, but I suspect many businesses will place their bet anyway. For a 1,000 person organization $360k isn't nothing but also not their biggest expense or even software expense. Likely a rounding error on revenue.
Most businesses will roll out Copilot and/or similar tools broadly for at least a couple of years before starting to really question the ROI. It is pretty clear that the hype and FOMO on this is real. It would likely be better to be the executive who tried AI and found it wanting then to be the one that waited on the sidelines if it turns out to have a big impact.
The hype cycle is just getting warmed up on this.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#36Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
Right now AI is in the part of the hype cycle where we are in the first knee of the S curve and people are drawing straight lines from that to predict the future. I've seen so much ridiculous hype about AI becoming godlike super-geniuses before the decade is out that I have to wonder if any of these people have tried using AI for real work and not just flashy demos.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#37Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
> Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Yes, but the thing is: it takes time to write the software. We had proof of concepts for some serious game-changing things written and working over a year ago, but organizationally it takes a long time to write and deploy the things and get them into production. Even if LLM's didn't get any better than t…
Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#38There are claims that Nvidia will go bust like how Cisco did, but I think Jensen Huang knows what he is doing. https://x.com/all_in_tok/status/1796602545055342784
He's selling shovels in a gold rush, which is a solid plan.
I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever.
Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended.
If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#39Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? And do you think all of Nvidia’s customers throwing money at data centres full of GPUs will cause the current generation of AIs (LLMs etc) to deliver greater and greater returns, sufficient to make Nvidia worth this current valuation and more? WalMart’s market cap is $540billion. Would…
The market cap is irrational and I submit as evidence Llama 3. AI won’t need huge amounts of computing resources. It will need moderate amounts of computing resources. The huge amount of computing resources seen today are the result of immature technology that uses resources inefficiently. As the technology improves, the capability-per-FLOP will increase and AI will move on-device.
AI has seen rapid efficiency improvements every year for the last decade, but the amount of computation used has gone up, not down. The improvements always go into making larger and more powerful models, not into just running the same models but at a lower cost per hour.
https://epochai.org/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-mo...
Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom
#40Cant wait to short this stock!
Good luck with that.