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Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#61

Post by photochemsyn »

MichaelCollins wrote: post #42
photochemsyn wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are strange... good handwashing standards are likely as important as masks for preventing Covid transmission, but that never got politicized or became controversial for some reason. Also, wearing non-N95 masks appears to be most effective as a means of preventing aerosolized droplets from infected people from spreading to others in public situations. The full PPE system is more for protecting nurses and doctor…

> People are strange... good handwashing standards are likely as important as masks for preventing Covid transmission, but that never got politicized or became controversial for some reason. It's obvious isn't it? Handwashing isn't a badge you can wear. Meet somebody in public and you'll know if they're wearing a mask or not, but you won't know if they've washed their hands recently.

I don't know if that's enough to explain the hysteria... for example, people have published studies on the effectiveness of handwashing without fearing being attacked on Twitter as agents of misinformation (results are mixed, though generally beneficial, alcohol rubbing seems somewhat less helpful than soap and water, and a good scrubbing is better):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250256/

> "To develop clear and simple guidance for the public, further work should focus on identifying the specific times when HH should be performed in different communities and situations. In the meantime, current guidelines should be followed and should be based on evidence summarised here. Resources to support frequent hand washing, if hand washing facilities are available, or alternatively ABHR, should be provided in schools, workplaces, and public spaces and HH should continue to be promoted"

There are some more recent studies (2022) that take a similar evidence-based approach to masking effectiveness, noting for example:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9017682/

> "The author pointed out that with active COVID-19 patients, who may contaminate the environment, a mask will not protect healthcare workers or other people if they are not accompanied by hand hygiene, eye protection, gloves and a gown."

The autopsy of the governmental and medical responses to the pandemic (and the original source of the outbreak) will make for interesting reading for years to come.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#63

Post by MichaelCollins »

johndfsgdgdfg wrote: post #47
mschuster91 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Additionally, most of the most-at-risk population has lived through the AIDS horror. A good gay friend of mine roughly summarized it as "we gays know how bad diseases can get, and fuck it my dating life even after 2 years of pandemic is not as important as is my life". Once it was clear that MSM were (once again) a high-risk group, they all went back to either reducing contacts or at least wearing condoms. In contras…

> we gays know how bad diseases can get, and fuck it my dating life even after 2 years of pandemic is not as important as is my life That's a nice sentiment I guess. Meanwhile my gay friend didn't stop "socialization" during the pandemic except first few early months. According to him he must've had COVID at least 4 times by now. If you add natural immunity, vaccine and asymptotic transmission he was getting exposed…

> Meanwhile my gay friend didn't stop "socialization" during the pandemic except first few early months.

Assuming he is a young man, then caution for the first few months meant he was cautious until mortality statistics revealed that the risk to himself, and presumably his partners, was minimal.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#64

Post by MichaelCollins »

photochemsyn wrote: post #61
MichaelCollins wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People are strange... good handwashing standards are likely as important as masks for preventing Covid transmission, but that never got politicized or became controversial for some reason. It's obvious isn't it? Handwashing isn't a badge you can wear. Meet somebody in public and you'll know if they're wearing a mask or not, but you won't know if they've washed their hands recently.

I don't know if that's enough to explain the hysteria... for example, people have published studies on the effectiveness of handwashing without fearing being attacked on Twitter as agents of misinformation (results are mixed, though generally beneficial, alcohol rubbing seems somewhat less helpful than soap and water, and a good scrubbing is better): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250256/ > "To develop…

Another part of the puzzle is telling people to wash their hands has been a mainstream message for decades. It wasn't asking people do to something new and uncomfortable.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#65

Post by idiotsecant »

benreesman wrote: post #43
mikeyouse wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really not mainstream amongst virologists.. as has been demonstrated by repeatedly debunking the latest gish gallop papers, there's literally zero evidence for lab manipulation of the sars cov2 virus. It's vaguely plausible that the virus could have been captured in the wild and then leaked, but even that seems extremely unlikely given the two separate market lineages and timeline of the earliest cases. Stricter…

I think there is a lot more controversy than you’re implying, even among serious scientists, but an HN comment thread is probably not the right place to litigate a complex issue that is also a partisan political football. I’ll leave it at this: I would encourage everyone to do their own research on this and try to look past the elephant in the room of the politics angle.

I find pretty often when people resolve conversations like this by saying 'do your own research', particularly when the research to be done requires any homework at all, it is shorthand for 'find a loud voice saying things that are compatible with the worldview you've decided on already'.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#66

Post by pvarangot »

mikeyouse wrote: post #37
benreesman wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

It's really not mainstream amongst virologists.. as has been demonstrated by repeatedly debunking the latest gish gallop papers, there's literally zero evidence for lab manipulation of the sars cov2 virus. It's vaguely plausible that the virus could have been captured in the wild and then leaked, but even that seems extremely unlikely given the two separate market lineages and timeline of the earliest cases. Stricter…

> It's really not mainstream amongst virologists

I mean if you seriously believe that theory you are probably going to either end, start thinking about how to end, or significantly change how you develop, your career as a virologist. Of course it's not mainstream.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#67

Post by LatteLazy »

benreesman wrote: post #25
throwaway920102 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/n…

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

>The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days.

So is denying climate change or the moon landings...

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#68

Post by chimprich »

benreesman wrote: post #25
throwaway920102 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it could evolve to be airborne in the wild or in a research lab doing intentional gain of function research (a practice for which funding was temporarily halted by Obama) and hybridization much like has been done at BSL-4 facilities worldwide unchecked including by EcoHealth alliance with bat coronaviruses via US funding at the WIV prior to the Covid outbreak in Wuhan. https://www.science.org/content/article/n…

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

> The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days.

Mainstream, and conceivably true, but lacking in evidence. Personally I find it rather implausible due to a lack of motivation for why the lab in question would be doing secret work on coronaviruses.

> fucking insane

I don't think this is a helpful way to have this debate. I don't know enough to have a strong opinion on this, but a majority of virologists seem to think it's necessary, so I wouldn't automatically label them as lunatics.

> a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic

Other plausible ways are a mutation from an existing pathogen or another zoonotic spillover event, which gain of function research could potentially predict or help mitigate.

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#69

Post by [deleted] »

nonameiguess wrote: post #51
benreesman wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is parent getting downvoted? The lab leak theory is pretty mainstream these days. And gain of function research is 1: real 2: fucking insane and 3: a plausible way we would have a true captain trips style pandemic.

It's a hell of a leap to go from gain of function research has ever happened at all to gain of function specifically on Ebola is a near-term serious risk. Is there any evidence that gain of function has ever been conducted on Ebola? I've never heard of it, and don't know where to look other than a search engine, and conducting a search there returns exactly two sources making that claim, one called "scamdemic" and on…

[deleted]

Re: Leaked documents: Ugandan government expects explosion in Ebola cases

#70

Post by Finnucane »

jryhjythtr wrote: post #38
cmrivers wrote: post #27

The outbreak in Uganda is troubling, but a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. No professional infectious disease modeler will forecast out more than a few weeks because the trajectory of the outbreak changes in response to interventions and behaviors.

>a forecast that goes out 6+ months is silly. Sure is, which is why it's odd we've been bombarded with endless graphs with months of predictions, over the past 2.5 years.

For ebola?
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