Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50% • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#61

Post by darkstar999 » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

solosoyokaze wrote: post #37

aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this. There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

It was never meant to be a value store. First sentence of the whitepaper: "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution".

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#62

Post by mlthoughts2018 » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

I am personally long on Bitcoin. Such a crash is just a buying opportunity. I don’t even consider any part of speculating Bitcoin value on a time horizon less than 10 years.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#63

Post by jackric » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

anm89 wrote: post #23

bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

Gold doesn't have earnings releases either.

There's only one gold... of the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin has become the store of value, by consensus, but that consensus is far more easily popped than the consensus of Gold's worth

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#64

Post by cryptica » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

The entire financial system is built on fraud. Corporations are crypto are the prime beneficiaries. For Bitcoin to collapse, all of society would have to collapse.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#65

Post by fanciestManimal » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

solosoyokaze wrote: post #12

HarryHirsch wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is intrinsically valuable How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

So I own some crypto too, but the dollar has a much larger social network effect of people who agree it's the store of value for the future, no? So does the Euro. It's a bit weird that you would claim that bitcoin's intrinsic value is that it's a store of value, but then deny the same reality for other traditional currencies.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#66

Post by bhouston » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

solosoyokaze wrote: post #12

HarryHirsch wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is intrinsically valuable How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

Paper money is legitimized by the government requiring you to pay it in that denomination. This then gets further legitimized via bonds, bank lending, etc.

Competing tenders in most countries are outlawed. It is an enforced shared belief.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#67

Post by Ariez » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

ashtonkem wrote: post #8

1-6 wrote: post #2

It'll just bring buyers back into the game when it's at a 50% discount.

“Crashes are just discounts” is one of the more pernicious financial memes around.

I'm guessing you didn't buy any stocks around april last year? :(

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#68

Post by solean » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:34 PM UTC

deft wrote: post #25

A blog by a guy going by Trolly, that can't even properly set up HTTPS, and admits he makes things up in the headerline means absolutely nothing. Tether has been involved in shady dealings for a long time. Last bull run people like this guy were claiming it was all going to blow up and tether was worthless etc etc etc. That never happened. This hysteria is very common for nocoiners, why are they so worried about my w…

The guy is a notorious tether truther, but it's not surprising to see most of HN drinking that koolaid.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#69

Post by throwaway3699 » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

desmap wrote: post #22

@dang, you should think about adding a disclaimer to every crypto-related submission, just regex the title with the typical key words to catch them, with something like: Be aware that crypto-related submissions like this one might be intended to trigger or influence a wanted market behavior by OP.

Any article posted here could cause market movements. We discuss public companies all the time.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#70

Post by centimeter » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

goda90 wrote: post #27

aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

Maybe we can focus on crypto that doesn't have such high electricity demands for that purpose.

Maybe when someone invents a “free” consensus scheme that actually competes with PoW’s security properties. There are plenty of reasons to suspect this isn’t possible.