Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO.

Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more grounded investments.

Bitcoin is more of a movement and it is somewhat revolutionary in that it aims to replace our existing monetary system of central banks and interest rates, etc.

I think the main threats to Bitcoin could be governmental if it continues to grow. If it starts to be a reserve currency competitor to USD which could affect treasury sales, I could see it being banned by the US government and others... but I am not smart enough to work out all that would play out if Bitcoin became that important.

I wonder if Bitcoin will ever be forced to bend towards an inflationary monetary policy controlled by government like entities? It is code and code and always be changed. If it is so successful it becomes necessary to co-opt it into the existing system.... weird stuff.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#6

Post by tobyhinloopen » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:21 PM UTC

I’ll get some btc again if it reaches 7K or less

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#7

Post by llcoolv » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

another (better) cached version: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#8

Post by ashtonkem » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

1-6 wrote: post #2

It'll just bring buyers back into the game when it's at a 50% discount.

“Crashes are just discounts” is one of the more pernicious financial memes around.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#9

Post by suifbwish » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:22 PM UTC

1-6 wrote: post #2

It'll just bring buyers back into the game when it's at a 50% discount.

Exactly. Just because people are paying 50k a piece doesn’t mean people won’t suddenly wake up and realize that bitcoin is actually inferior to most of the other cryptocurrencies in terms of utility

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#10

Post by HarryHirsch » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 4:23 PM UTC

bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

it is intrinsically valuable

How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?