US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M • Hacker News Board

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#61

Post by mk89 » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:50 PM UTC

brenden2 wrote: post #9

The Fed conveniently released an announcement about a new $2.3t free money program at the same time. The Fed's actions only serve to confirm what I think a lot of people already know: things are going to get really bad. It's a bit strange watching the stock market continue to pump knowing many of these companies have had their revenues drop by as much as 100%.

> things are going to get really bad.

Yes, they will. Just look at countries like Italy, Spain, etc. It will proportionally be the same in the USA, or any other big country. Whoever was smart enough to look at the first affected/infected countries and react quickly will probably be a bit ahead of others, but sooner or later, with the way our global economy works, the lockdown will crush a lot of jobs, and it doesn't matter how much money you have left in your bank (as a country). The only way is to reintroduce people into work slowly, and in order to do so we need to understand who can go out and who can't. Of course, the vaccine would solve a lot of troubles, but who knows when.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#62

Post by throwanem » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:51 PM UTC

streetcat1 wrote: post #47

According to my calculation, minimum wage employees can now get twice in unemployment benefits (for at least 4 months) than his/her original wage. So based on that, even if the economy is open, I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work.

Unemployment insurance payout per month is usually capped based on what you made at the job you had before you went on it. One assumes that will again be the case once the current crisis is considered to have ended.

Unemployment insurance payouts are also time-bound. You don't go on unemployment and stay on it indefinitely; after a few months, barring a rare and hard-to-obtain extension, the benefit ends.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#63

Post by sjg007 » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:51 PM UTC

strict9 wrote: post #24

shartshooter wrote: post #10

we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks I’m a little surprised it’s not higher. I assumed with bars, gyms, retail, house cleaners (and not to mention wait staff at restaurants) all out of a job indefinitely that those folks made up >10% of the workforce.

It is definitely much higher. Many states' unemployment systems are woefully inadequate. Florida (but probably other states too) intentionally made the unemployment claims system painful/impossible to navigate: > “It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.” https://www.p…

Maybe Floridians should vote in their best interest then..

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#64

Post by chasd00 » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:52 PM UTC

sjg007 wrote: post #58

ptero wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stock market is volatile probably due to many factors, with HFT probably playing a significant role. That said, a jump in unemployment claims today is likely a non-event for stocks: it was predictable and as such already priced into the market. Markets are driven more by expectations 6+ months from now, for which you get the full spectrum of "90% become poor for many years" to "pumping more cash in, use inflation to…

>Markets are driven more by expectations 6+ months from now If this was the case then we wouldn't have since the crash due to Covid-19.

during the market crashes we weren't we looking at 100-240k dead in the coming months and that was considered "good"?

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#65

Post by daxfohl » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

dota_fanatic wrote: post #31

brink wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus will peak soon, quarantine will start easing, and the economy will start to resume.

Why / how will the virus peak soon? Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

I am afraid the big hit will come in the second wave, when we get used to the numbers, get cabin fever, things start opening up and say 0.1% of people still have it, versus the one in a million that had it when things started shutting down.

When the contagion is out in 0.1%, and we reopen everything, suddenly 50% of people will have it in a month and that will be unlike anything we've seen yet.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#66

Post by _curious_ » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #49

dota_fanatic wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why / how will the virus peak soon? Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

At the rough 33% increase rate the virus is showing, 10 million is 20 in three days. 40 in 6. 80 in 9. 160 in 12. Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity. Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is…

Definitely cyclical...and so will the economy which will make any economic recovery more drawn out and difficult as we experience more ups and downs in day to day life.

Plus now we'll have a bunch of companies on the dole who otherwise wouldn't be in business/re-open and it will become even more surreal when the market can't sort out which companies are existing naturally and which ones are fully propped up (esp. if there is no oversight = impossible to track).

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#67

Post by wjossey » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:53 PM UTC

twomoretime wrote: post #16

brenden2 wrote: post #9

The Fed conveniently released an announcement about a new $2.3t free money program at the same time. The Fed's actions only serve to confirm what I think a lot of people already know: things are going to get really bad. It's a bit strange watching the stock market continue to pump knowing many of these companies have had their revenues drop by as much as 100%.

On the other hand, hasn't a lot of cash outflow been reduced right now too? I feel like we're putting the economy on pause. If we can survive in this state for another 3 or so months, there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal.

At least in tech, there have been waves upon waves of layoffs the last two weeks. Those jobs won’t instantly come back, even when the economy recovers.

Beyond tech, many small business will never reopen. Their suppliers will now be over staffed, and need to lay-off. The suppliers of their suppliers will see a reduction in their order volume, and will do layoffs. Etc, etc.

I’m not an economist, but it doesn’t take an economist to see that even if we had a vaccine every human being could get today, that there would still be a permanent jump in unemployment that will take time to recover from.

Given there is no vaccine in the near future, the hope turns to NPIs or therapeutics. NPIs will continue to suppress the economy because many service workers won’t be able to resume their jobs, even as some people go back to work. Cruises won’t be back. Amusement parks won’t reopen. Stadiums will still be shut. Flights will still run mostly empty. Ubers will be avoided.

So, the hope turns to therapeutics. Hopefully some drug cocktail can reduce the severity of symptoms so fewer people enter catastrophic distress. And/or, we discover some other way to treat those in the ICU to further lower the death rate. If we can lower the death rate to actually be the same as a bad flu season, maybe enough people will have confidence to resume their normal lives.

For now, I don’t personally foresee a V shaped recovery. I’m not sure I buy a U shaped recovery either. But, I’m not an economist, so I shouldn’t be taken as anything other than a random internet person sharing their opinion.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#68

Post by mywittyname » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:54 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #49

dota_fanatic wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why / how will the virus peak soon? Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

At the rough 33% increase rate the virus is showing, 10 million is 20 in three days. 40 in 6. 80 in 9. 160 in 12. Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity. Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is…

Also, we're not even testing for it broadly enough to really know how many cases we have. Current numbers in the USA are a rough educated guess.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#69

Post by _curious_ » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:58 PM UTC

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #40

brink wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus will peak soon, quarantine will start easing, and the economy will start to resume.

We're already starting to see massive layoffs at startups. Maybe it was possible that every restaurant could just rehire their unemployed staff (extremely unlikely), but once salaried employees are let go it's a long time before companies start rehiring. Even if covid-19 disappeared today in some impossible miracle, we'd still see record people out of work and it would take years to fully recover.

The "startup" phase of private industry has flourished by unprecedented amounts of VC over the past 5+ years. VC, in turn, has been backed by record PE levels and exits.

Does anyone think these $ highs are coming back in the next 2-3 years, minimum, maybe 5+ ?

Full circle, startup capitalization has peaked

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#70

Post by throwanem » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:58 PM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #59

_curious_ wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal." Other than optimism and hope, what is your basis here?

what's happening is the result of a medical emergency and not the economy. There's no financial reason or economic reason the job losses are so high. It's still there, the demand is still there, we artificially halted the economy and that generated the job loss. It's certainly not an on/off situation but the job demand is still there and we can get back to work.

This concept of an economy as some sort of Platonic ideal, disconnected from the processes of the polity in which it exists, is very odd to me.

It seems like having your heart stop and saying it isn't a "real" emergency, because the organs are all still there and ready to get back to work as soon as oxygenated blood starts arriving again. Sure, that's true for a minute or so, maybe two if you're young and healthy. After that...