US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M • Hacker News Board

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#41

Post by _curious_ » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:42 PM UTC

bearjaws wrote: post #2

Is the number expected to be this high? I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees? I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus but it seems I am always stuck finding the same "rehashed" news articles.

"Is the number expected to be this high?" = Yes, some models/estimates suggest it will reach 30m, though I don't recall the horizon.

"I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees?" = In some cases, I'm hearing that it is happening. In others, the funds are not flowing so owner/operators are proceeding to 'let go'.

"I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus" = Understandable, but difficult enough during 'normal' conditions. Now, everyone becomes an expert.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#42

Post by notyourday » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:43 PM UTC

frankbreetz wrote: post #20

shartshooter wrote: post #10

we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks I’m a little surprised it’s not higher. I assumed with bars, gyms, retail, house cleaners (and not to mention wait staff at restaurants) all out of a job indefinitely that those folks made up >10% of the workforce.

I think it will continue to raise is seems like we can only handle processing about 6.6 millions unemployment claims a week. There was a similar number last week. I know we saw it increase quickly, but that does not mean we will see it decrease quickly.

Bingo. During Chernobyl nuclear disaster initial official radiation reports were based on the highest number of the fielded portable measurement equipment.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#43

Post by techdevangelist » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:43 PM UTC

rrtthu wrote: post #5

bearjaws wrote: post #2

Is the number expected to be this high? I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees? I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus but it seems I am always stuck finding the same "rehashed" news articles.

Part of the stimulus is ensuring that unemployed people will get enough cash to live by. They increased the allowance by 600USD per week.

I don’t think any states are paying that extra 600/week out yet, where I’m at they are still recoding for it and expecting several more weeks. It’ll be back dated but still, and with the numbers of claims I’m wondering how much capital they really have for it.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#44

Post by kasey_junk » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:43 PM UTC

jonplackett wrote: post #26

Is this much job loss happening elsewhere, like Europe?

Yes. Spain lost about 10% of its workforce in March. Italy is expected to go from projected 0.5% GDP growth to -3% (or even up to -10% by some projections). I saw one estimate that 60% of Italy’s manufacturing plant was shut down by COVID.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#45

Post by _curious_ » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:44 PM UTC

twomoretime wrote: post #16

brenden2 wrote: post #9

The Fed conveniently released an announcement about a new $2.3t free money program at the same time. The Fed's actions only serve to confirm what I think a lot of people already know: things are going to get really bad. It's a bit strange watching the stock market continue to pump knowing many of these companies have had their revenues drop by as much as 100%.

On the other hand, hasn't a lot of cash outflow been reduced right now too? I feel like we're putting the economy on pause. If we can survive in this state for another 3 or so months, there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal.

"there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal." Other than optimism and hope, what is your basis here?

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#46

Post by beisner » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:44 PM UTC

strict9 wrote: post #12

Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?

I think we’ve known for a while that the stock market is not the economy. My two cents:

1) Uncertainty is anathema to markets. At the beginning of the crisis, there was a ton of uncertainty about how the disease would progress, what it’s impact on supply chains would be globally, and how governments would respond. In the last few weeks, the US has gotten a lot more information on how things progress, “flatten the curve strategies” are appearing to work (which reduces uncertainty), supply chains are still very strong and, for staple goods/services, only minority affected, and the central banks of the world are issuing a MASSIVE amount of short term liquidity to prevent credit crunches.

2) (this is a bit more cynical). I suspect the productivity of a huge number of Americans, particularly in service roles, has disproportionately less impact on the economic productivity of publicly traded companies. In other words, many jobs are disposable without impacting the financial health of companies in the stock market. Small businesses are being gutted, and so is a lot of big retail, but it’s been too short of a time for those effects to make a dent in how many of the publicly traded businesses are operating.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#47

Post by streetcat1 » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:44 PM UTC

According to my calculation, minimum wage employees can now get twice in unemployment benefits (for at least 4 months) than his/her original wage.

So based on that, even if the economy is open, I failed to see what would incentivize people to return to work.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#48

Post by jussij » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

strict9 wrote: post #12

Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?

I suspect they might be happy with the $USD 500 Billion headed their way as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus stimulus bill.

So if things get really bad, since the government has bailed them out once, I suspect they might be thinking there'll be more where that came from.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#49

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

dota_fanatic wrote: post #31

brink wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The virus will peak soon, quarantine will start easing, and the economy will start to resume.

Why / how will the virus peak soon? Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

At the rough 33% increase rate the virus is showing, 10 million is 20 in three days. 40 in 6. 80 in 9. 160 in 12.

Social distancing is slowing that down a bit, but I suspect in the coming week or two we'll learn it's been spreading like wildfire in places like Florida and Alabama where they've been slow to clamp down on social activity.

Exponential growth can be hard to wrap heads around. That said, I think "peak" is a misnomer. We'll have a bunch of peaks.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#50

Post by eeZah7Ux » Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

strict9 wrote: post #12

Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?

> Is the stock market connected to reality anymore?

No, it's a silly game to make traders richer and everybody else poorer.