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US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

cnbc.com

31–40 of 135 posts

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#31
post #7

And yet, stocks continue their quick rebound.

The virus will peak soon, quarantine will start easing, and the economy will start to resume.

Why / how will the virus peak soon?

Global population is ~7.8 billion and yet presumably only 10-100s of millions have caught it so far.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL, what did you expect? Bernie dropped out, unemployment numbers are up, Trump fired the person responsible for managing the 2 trillion Coronavirus bailout. This is a great time for business, not so much for people.

If no one has any money to buy anything, that is bad for business.

They can always just print more.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#33
post #2

Is the number expected to be this high? I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees? I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus but it seems I am always stuck finding the same "rehashed" news articles.

Assume you are small business. Now try to find where / how / when You will get stimulus money? To cover what?

I sure can’t.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#35
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false, the plan specifically targeted small businesses: https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business...

You mean the money being managed by the person Trump just fired?

Here, would you like proof?

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-07/trump-...

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#36

we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks I’m a little surprised it’s not higher. I assumed with bars, gyms, retail, house cleaners (and not to mention wait staff at restaurants) all out of a job indefinitely that those folks made up >10% of the workforce.

It is not higher because the UI filings systems are still not capable of processing the volume of new claims.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#37
post #9

The Fed conveniently released an announcement about a new $2.3t free money program at the same time. The Fed's actions only serve to confirm what I think a lot of people already know: things are going to get really bad. It's a bit strange watching the stock market continue to pump knowing many of these companies have had their revenues drop by as much as 100%.

On the other hand, hasn't a lot of cash outflow been reduced right now too? I feel like we're putting the economy on pause. If we can survive in this state for another 3 or so months, there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal.

Black Swan, 1:100 year event. It makes a lot of sense to spend the kind of money that you'd collect over two years of tax collection in order to support people through this. You can then recover that money over about the next 50 years.

I think Australia is trying to do this on the cheap and kinda of stuffing it up. We're going to see a lot of industries collapse. Tourism is dead for 36 months at least and so is the higher education sector. It's going to be bleak.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#38
post #12

Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?

It's speculation I guess. People just assuming there will be a bounce back up and then other people jumping on to make money. So in a way, yes it is disconnected from reality. The stocks did go crazy low though on 18th March. Tesla pretty much halved its value.

Tesla had roughly quadrupled in a couple of months prior, though.

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#39
post #9

The Fed conveniently released an announcement about a new $2.3t free money program at the same time. The Fed's actions only serve to confirm what I think a lot of people already know: things are going to get really bad. It's a bit strange watching the stock market continue to pump knowing many of these companies have had their revenues drop by as much as 100%.

On the other hand, hasn't a lot of cash outflow been reduced right now too? I feel like we're putting the economy on pause. If we can survive in this state for another 3 or so months, there's a good chance things will quickly return to normal - or at least most companies will survive and start rehiring under a new normal.

There’s a good chance things will return quickly to normal? Where’d you get that from?

Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M

#40
post #7

And yet, stocks continue their quick rebound.

The virus will peak soon, quarantine will start easing, and the economy will start to resume.

We're already starting to see massive layoffs at startups. Maybe it was possible that every restaurant could just rehire their unemployed staff (extremely unlikely), but once salaried employees are let go it's a long time before companies start rehiring.

Even if covid-19 disappeared today in some impossible miracle, we'd still see record people out of work and it would take years to fully recover.

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