Doesn't matter since Jerome Powell nationalized the stock market and is just printing money to inflate it. It's all priced in.
US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
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Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#22Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?
It's speculation I guess. People just assuming there will be a bounce back up and then other people jumping on to make money.
So in a way, yes it is disconnected from reality.
The stocks did go crazy low though on 18th March. Tesla pretty much halved its value.
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
The core ideas were reported upon, the real purpose is to bail out the banks (once again) and the fortune 500 companies. Very little is going to the people hardest hit.
This is false, the plan specifically targeted small businesses: https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business...
You mean the money being managed by the person Trump just fired?
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#24we’ve now lost 10% of workforce in three weeks I’m a little surprised it’s not higher. I assumed with bars, gyms, retail, house cleaners (and not to mention wait staff at restaurants) all out of a job indefinitely that those folks made up >10% of the workforce.
It is definitely much higher. Many states' unemployment systems are woefully inadequate.
Florida (but probably other states too) intentionally made the unemployment claims system painful/impossible to navigate:
>“It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/04/03/its...
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#25And yet, stocks continue their quick rebound.
LOL, what did you expect? Bernie dropped out, unemployment numbers are up, Trump fired the person responsible for managing the 2 trillion Coronavirus bailout. This is a great time for business, not so much for people.
If no one has any money to buy anything, that is bad for business.
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#26Is this much job loss happening elsewhere, like Europe?
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#27Is the number expected to be this high? I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees? I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus but it seems I am always stuck finding the same "rehashed" news articles.
Part of the stimulus is ensuring that unemployed people will get enough cash to live by. They increased the allowance by 600USD per week.
That's really not that much. Won't pay for a 1 bedroom apartment in San Francisco, especially after gas and groceries.
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#28Is the stock market connected to reality anymore? 16 million Americans lost their jobs in three weeks and in that time there's been a substantial rally. This can't just be short covering. What gives?
Stock market is volatile probably due to many factors, with HFT probably playing a significant role.
That said, a jump in unemployment claims today is likely a non-event for stocks: it was predictable and as such already priced into the market. Markets are driven more by expectations 6+ months from now, for which you get the full spectrum of "90% become poor for many years" to "pumping more cash in, use inflation to deflate debts and go back to business as before". I suspect we will get something in the middle, but its just a wild guess. My 2c.
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
The core ideas were reported upon, the real purpose is to bail out the banks (once again) and the fortune 500 companies. Very little is going to the people hardest hit.
This is false, the plan specifically targeted small businesses: https://www.sba.gov/page/coronavirus-covid-19-small-business...
The plan is a death spiral financing which puts a small business into a worse position after taking it than before. They have no revenue due to a government action, loan is based on the value of their payroll with the revenue and the the small business is required to spend 75% of the loan for payroll while being closed.
The fact that banks claimed that 0.5% interest is not enough for them to make it worth it so the Treasury bumped the number and cut repayment schedule is the clearest demonstration yet that it is another hand out to banks.
Re: US weekly jobless claims jump by 6.6M
#30Is the number expected to be this high? I thought one of the core ideas of the stimulus was to prevent firing by giving small businesses a "free" loan if they retained their employees? I've been trying to find a good authority on the economics of this stimulus but it seems I am always stuck finding the same "rehashed" news articles.
The "free" loan is reportedly difficult to get since the government leaned on banks to provide these and banks are doing whatever they can to avoid the situation. For instance, Wells Fargo says they are out of those loans and Bank of America tried to make these loans dependent on already having another loan with them (policy revoked after outcry).
Small businesses in our town are laying everyone off instead of waiting on these loans b/c the employees can qualify and receive unemployment immediately now. Once things open again, they plan to rehire the same people if possible.
All this is anecdotal but seems to me that new unemployment rules are part of the rescue package (I don't really consider it a stimulus package)