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Is It a Pandemic Yet?

nytimes.com

61–70 of 289 posts

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be what the other 1.5 million people in my city are counting on. Which means, I’m not going to count on that.

If your city's supermarkets can feed people with in-person shopping, they can feed people with deliveries as easily, it's the same number of people buying food.

That's assuming that every supermarket has enough delivery staff. That's not a valid assumption in many places.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#62
post #8

I read a lot about this virus lately, and it looks like the mortality rate depends a lot on the availability of intensive care. If that's the case, slowing down the diffusion of the infection could be really important in keeping down the total number of deaths.

I noticed the same thing. As numbers continue to grow, we run the real risk of even top of the line health care systems being overwhelmed and people passing from lack of access to care. Couple numbers that jump out for me are China with ~3% mortality rate but also rumors of these numbers being vastly unreported. Iran with a 19% mortality rate (on a small scale)! Also the mortality rate appears to be 3.2% where for a…

China also reports about 8 recovered for every 1 death, so even if their numbers are accurately reported, there are a lot more who have done neither as of yet, and about 11% of them will die. Which would be a lot more deaths.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#63
post #44
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our media is referring to "patient zero" in Italy as a 38 years-old man. So either he is known or our media is full of your-know-that. Which would not be surprising. Edit: a commenter below correctly pointed out that that 38yo man is being referred to as "patient one" not "patient zero". My bad.

I think they're referring to him as "patient one". Patient zero (i.e. someone who is or was ill and has recently come back from China) hasn't been found yet.

Why does it have to be China? Couldn't it be Thailand/Singapore/S.Korea/Japan/Israel/Iran etc?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#64
post #12

We were looking into Covid-19 at the office and after digging through the scariness we realized mortality rate for healthy 30-somethings is around 0.1%. Then we said screw it and stopped worrying. We’re most likely gonna be fine. Even if it becomes widespread the odds are ever in our favor. Plus there’s already a few confirmed cases in SFBA so ... Edit: for the downvoters, I’m not say spread disease with wonton aband…

sure, but you probably know some old people, and the hospital will be over-whelmed. Even if you're not dead you might find yourself organising funerals (who are also overwhelmed). So even if you are not directly at risk of death, you will almost certainly affected by secondary affects from the infra demands or your extended family.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#65
Yes. Definition of "pandemic": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

Even though the fatality rate in developed economies seems relatively low (on the order of 1%, perhaps lower), significant economic and logistical disruption appears inevitable in the short run, judging by the reaction of financial markets.

Please don't overreact -- there's no need to blow things out of proportion -- but don't be stupid and dismiss this as unnecessary fear-mongering either. It's best to be prepared, just in case.

For more details, see:

* https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22403200

* https://apnews.com/32540d09ec101aac057660ef1b0aa970

* https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-the-wuhan-vi...

* https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronaviru...

* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/business/stock-market-cor...

By the way, the OP's headline appears to be an exception to Betteridge's Law of Headlines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#67
post #42

Last week google had a promoted 'fact check' snippet for searches about covid-19 being released from a lab. Predictably, it was an article debunking the story as a crack-pot conspiracy theory. Today stories about covid-19 being released from a lab are front page at news.google.com.

Those new articles have basically the same exact conspiracy theory reasoning behind them as the ZeroHedge and friends ones from last week, so this isn't as much of a slam dunk as you make it sound like.

Not sure why you need to characterize it as a slam dunk. That wasn't my intention. It is simply an observation of a contradiction.

If we're capable of consuming news from a variety of sources, digesting them and coming to our own conclusions, that should be enough. If not, hand holding isn't going to help.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#68
post #28
post #9

> Some 152 cases (and at least three deaths) were confirmed in Italy on Sunday, up from three cases on Thursday. The number of infected people in South Korea jumped to 763 (and six deaths) in just days. To add an important point: In both countries, they have detected covid-19 only well after it has spread inside the country. E.g. in Italy it started with one severely ill patient who went to the hospital and got teste…

Our media is referring to "patient zero" in Italy as a 38 years-old man. So either he is known or our media is full of your-know-that. Which would not be surprising. Edit: a commenter below correctly pointed out that that 38yo man is being referred to as "patient one" not "patient zero". My bad.

I just read a CNN article entitled “Italy has yet to identify the source of its outbreak”, apparently from 8 minutes ago, citing a regional official.

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-...

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#69
post #21

For perspective, numbers from the regular flu this winter: "At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, ..."

Are you comparing covid-19 cases against the sum of ALL cases of *regular flu(H_N_ influenza( A B C D) virus)?

For perspective, how many country will actually restrict travel or even undergone state wide lock down for an outbreak of regular flu??

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#70
post #21

For perspective, numbers from the regular flu this winter: "At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, ..."

Yes, and we can expect 10X to 20X that number at risk when this virus spreads.

Why stop at 10x or 20x? Why not 1,000x? What's the science behind that?
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