Is It a Pandemic Yet? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#31

Post by curo » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:49 PM UTC

Swizec wrote: post #12

We were looking into Covid-19 at the office and after digging through the scariness we realized mortality rate for healthy 30-somethings is around 0.1%. Then we said screw it and stopped worrying. We’re most likely gonna be fine. Even if it becomes widespread the odds are ever in our favor. Plus there’s already a few confirmed cases in SFBA so ... Edit: for the downvoters, I’m not say spread disease with wonton aband…

> screw it and stopped worrying

Wouldn't that logic only apply to people whose family, friends, and neighbors were only in the 30-something, healthy cohort?

The estimated mortality rates for COV19 is higher than Swine Flu but not quite SARS. So anyone who care about, cares for, or comes into contact with someone who is immunocompromised (including grandparents, etc) would do good to keep an eye on this.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#32

Post by irq11 » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:49 PM UTC

beamatronic wrote: post #27

irq11 wrote: post #15

Thankfully, this is a relatively mild virus. Part of what makes it hard to detect is that most cases (>80%) are mild, and many are actually asymptomatic: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia... The vast majority of people who have died have been elderly and/or infirm. The death rate under 60 is well under 1%. If you’re young and healthy, this is a chest cold. The biggest thing the media needs…

Age in low 60’s is not really “elderly”...

The distribution is strongly biased toward the elderly no matter how you cut the data; above 60, most of the deaths are in the oldest cohort.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#33

Post by coldtea » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:49 PM UTC

bla3 wrote: post #21

For perspective, numbers from the regular flu this winter: "At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, ..."

The difference is we know what the flu can do and how bad it usually gets. And it's less lethal -- it's just more cases that's why there are lots more deaths with flu.

But that wont necessarily the case if there's a corona pandemic.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#34

Post by JoeAltmaier » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:51 PM UTC

bla3 wrote: post #21

For perspective, numbers from the regular flu this winter: "At least 14,000 people have died and 250,000 have already been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, ..."

Yes, and we can expect 10X to 20X that number at risk when this virus spreads.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#35

Post by i_am_nomad » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

JulianMorrison wrote: post #29

James_Henry wrote: post #20

> And what should each of us do, beyond staying informed and washing our hands frequently? Keep calm and rational. It might be worth stocking some reserve of critical medications, for example — but not too much, because hoarding could create shortages. > We, as individuals, can also try to plan for basic contingencies. Companies can cross-train key staff members so that one person’s absence won’t derail the business.…

You don't need to stock up if you can get food delivered. They can leave the delivery on the doorstep.

That might be what the other 1.5 million people in my city are counting on. Which means, I’m not going to count on that.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#36

Post by ropiwqefjnpoa » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

James_Henry wrote: post #23

ropiwqefjnpoa wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I stopped worrying a few weeks back after I saw the mortality rate. It's basically a highly virulent flu with the same risk factors. Not on the same level as sars and the like.

It is a highly virulent flu with the same risk factors and no vaccine for those that are at high risk. It may not be something to worry about, but I'd think we should do something to prepare.

Absolutely, but the news is causing a low level panic as they do report numbers, but don't emphasize what the numbers mean. I guess that's also the viewers fault as the math is grade school simple.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#37

Post by wuunderbar » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #15

Thankfully, this is a relatively mild virus. Part of what makes it hard to detect is that most cases (>80%) are mild, and many are actually asymptomatic: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia... The vast majority of people who have died have been elderly and/or infirm. The death rate under 60 is well under 1%. If you’re young and healthy, this is a chest cold. The biggest thing the media needs…

What about non young or healthy people you might interact with when you’re asymptomatic?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#38

Post by JoeAltmaier » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #15

Thankfully, this is a relatively mild virus. Part of what makes it hard to detect is that most cases (>80%) are mild, and many are actually asymptomatic: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia... The vast majority of people who have died have been elderly and/or infirm. The death rate under 60 is well under 1%. If you’re young and healthy, this is a chest cold. The biggest thing the media needs…

So only 1 or two people I know will die of it? How is that 'mild' exactly? Relative to what? The plague?

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#39

Post by wonderwonder » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

danmaz74 wrote: post #8

I read a lot about this virus lately, and it looks like the mortality rate depends a lot on the availability of intensive care. If that's the case, slowing down the diffusion of the infection could be really important in keeping down the total number of deaths.

I noticed the same thing. As numbers continue to grow, we run the real risk of even top of the line health care systems being overwhelmed and people passing from lack of access to care. Couple numbers that jump out for me are China with ~3% mortality rate but also rumors of these numbers being vastly unreported.

Iran with a 19% mortality rate (on a small scale)!

Also the mortality rate appears to be 3.2% where for a while it was in the low 2s.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

If this grows into a true pandemic, it will to the best of my knowledge be the first stress test of our Just-In-Time style of inventory management at grocery stores.

Re: Is It a Pandemic Yet?

#40

Post by JulianMorrison » Mon, Feb 24, 2020, 2:53 PM UTC

remote_phone wrote: post #4

Of course it is. The officials at WHO failed us because they are more worried about the politics than the truth. This type of behavior will make us not trust them in the future.

Pandemic has a definition, and a disease that seems to be being detected and contained doesn't meet it.

This one is at the tipping point. The situations in Italy and in Iran are potentially run-away if they can't draw a boundary around all the infections including the original spreader.