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The global fertility rate is falling

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Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#591
post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whether to start trying to have a family is a BIG-ASS decision, with life-long consequences It especially has life-long consequences for the children! I wouldn't want to put children in this world. I don't think the future world is a nice place to grow up in, even the current world isn't. IMO it's selfish to make kids just to feel fulfilled and not be lonely.

> I wouldn't want to put children in this world. I don't think the future world is a nice place to grow up in, even the current world isn't. I have posted the following a few years ago: > My ancestors thought it was okay to have kids during times in which many scholars where certain the apocalypse was due in the next 25 years, during periods in which the plague killed more than half of the population, during the 30 y…

You are rationalizing in the same way in the other direction

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#592

The Hacker News comment section tends to be factual, rational, and logical. So - this may be out of place, but here goes. When making decisions about whether or not to have children, we operate in a state of partial information. (This is of course true of all decisions.) I would like to contribute a bit of information. I'm 66, and have three children and four grandchildren. My adult children are the most wonderful pe…

Thank you for sharing this. I hope my children bring their grandparents as much joy as you do. Speaking of this - "tends to be factual, rational, and logical." - do you worry much about what the world will look like when your grandchildren are middle aged? I spent probably too much time concerned with rising authoritarianism, climate breakdown, shortages of food and water resulting from same, and their resulting wars…

I think about this question often as I now have a 2yo and 4yo. It used to stress me out, but now I realize that no matter how bad it gets, it will almost certainly be better than anything any human had to deal with in pre-modern civilization. Even with all the possible negative things coming, the tools we have acquired as a species would be incomprehensible to anyone say pre-5000 years ago. We are alive such a short blip of geological time and tend to get lost in the brief frames. The ability to bring a life into this world, even if it's harder than we have it right now, is still giving someone an opportunity to learn and experience things beyond wonder. Our technology is sufficiently advanced to be magic to anyone who died like pre-1990. Yes we have challenges ahead, yes a bunch of people will die and be displaced and people will be scared and think it's the end, but even if the population shrinks to 1 billion people the human spirit will endure and figure it out. Personally, I'd much rather experience life than none at all--even if it wasn't at the top of existence.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#593
Like any complex phenomena declining fertility has multiple causes. The importance of each cause depends on the local conditions.

1. Easy access to contraceptives (they are easily available throughout the developed world) 2. Positive view of abortion (the christian world used to see abortion as a crime, now with increased secularisation more is placed on the mother's preference than on the fetus). 3. Pressure on resources (when having children becomes a choice, it doesn't happen 'naturally', people are less likely to bring a child into the world if they cannot raise it properly). 4. Education and career orientation of women (Educated women make less children, they finish school around 24, start their career and if they don't secure a partner by 30-32 their fertility windows has closed - even if biologically they could bear children, they struggle finding a partner to raise children with). 5. The marriage institution has collapsed (Marriage is the bedrock of children rearing - high divorce rates, divorce courts, normalisation and acceptance of divorce has made people less likely to marry and thus having the environment in which to raise children). 6. Culture - it's not cool to have children. Now it's cool to travel the world and find yourself and experiment with as many partners as you can. This culture is not conducive to child rearing. Movies, books, music do not portrait happy families. Today, cool is to be 'different'. 7. Religion - christianity with its marriage and chastity laws is dying out. Is is being replaced by the secular world where monogamy and child rearing are not perceived as something desirable. 8. Lack of social support - as people travel to find jobs they do not live with their parents. Raising children without the support of grandparents is much more difficult. 9. Low wage growth due to women joining the work force. One man could maintain a family with children and his wife, 50-60 years ago. That is no longer possible unless you are in the top 0.1%. 10. Skewed dating market. Women are desirable by men until they reach 30-32. After that few men who want a family would try to know and marry a women because she is less likely to bear children and this is not a priority for her. Women are under much pressure to sort out their careers, know themselves and start of family by early thirties. The education and career 'system' is not optimised for mothers. 11. Global warming and reaching peak resources. We have reached the peak point in multiple natural resources and are destroying natural habitats at an alarming rate. This makes people less likely to see a hopeful future into which children have a place.

To summarise, we live in era of tremendous technological and cultural change where we reached the limits of our planet's resources in the way we currently use them and this has led to population shrinkage in the developed world.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#594
post #138
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very interesting, and unexpected at the surface level. Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed about the world population getting out of control, consuming all the resources, polluting the planet into oblivion, etc. I was expecting to read about medical/health reasons why men and women are literally becoming less fertile, but it's not that. It sounds like it's a side effect of countries/s…

> Especially with all the doom and gloom we've always been fed Which is still true, if the billion Indians and Billion Chinese start having American lifestyles, that is just not sustainable for the planet.

Heh, they killed a lot of their women so that really puts a cap on how quickly they could grow.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps some 80% of global population would be very grateful to relocate to Georgia.

I know Americans on the internet usually view their country with rose-shaded glasses but this comment has to take the price. I don't know the number, don't think anyone does, but off the people I know, 100% would never want to move to any state in the US. Probably the real number of people wanting to immigrate to the US is closer to 0% than 100%.

The people you know are almost certainly not representative of the world at large. Maybe 80% is a bit high, but the number is certainly over 50%. The median global person earns less than $3000/year.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#596
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason the meaning shifted is that the original meaning is not particularly accurate. Although that said, I'm looking into it and it doesn't seem settled that that is the etymylogical root. That root also specifically refers to blood shed in battle . My guess is it was war propaganda.

I think the reason is the shorter version is easier to remember, and people love to attribute genuine wisdom to these kinds of statements. Because the shorter version is easier to remember it is near at hand and got used more.

I don't think people are that dumb tbh.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#597
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit like hearing a successful startup founder speak about the joys of success. It’s absolutely correct, but it’s also just one data point. Keep in mind, most of the lonely old people you see have children. And I’m not sure it’s a good, caring thing to tell childless people that they will be lonely in old age, because it need not be true.

A different view from one engaged in parenting 3 boys (11, 9, 6): Having kids is very little fun. It is work. But helping new people to be the best people they can be is fulfilling, joyful work. We're having one of our roughly weekly sleepovers tonight where we all spread out cots on the family room floor. (Everyone falls asleep before me, and so sometimes I make my way online). I like this time because we have a lon…

I'm half way through "The Course of Love" by Alain de Botton and I think it's an amazing read for anyone with children, or thinking about having them (coming from someone yet to have them!)

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#598
post #541
post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> because raising said family more or less led to a falling out with old friends ... Where I live I don't see many "intergenerational friendships". I think that both of these are massively consequence of our own culture, not something that must be. It is combination of long hours at work, the super high expectations on child raising that for many people excludes socialization with kids present and animosity of childl…

I don't know which culture is this "our culture" you refer to but at least for me (in Germany) I've actually had more friends since having kids (parents of kids +/- similarly aged to mine) even tho I've also lost touch with some childless friends as well. On the balance I'm sure I'm more social now (corona notwithstanding) than I was 5 years ago.

American here, and I'm pretty sure the poster you're replying to is also a product of American society. Once I moved to Europe, the shift in social norms was shocking. Now it's difficult for me to go back to the US because everybody there defines themselves by their work and social spaces are so openly hostile to children.

Re: The global fertility rate is falling

#600
post #163
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does it seem like a win?

The planet is of finite size, so unlimited growth was clearly never an option. The question is, what is the best population size, and how do we get to that level?

There are natural growth levels I'm sure.
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