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We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

derekthompson.org

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Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#561

Post by vovavili »

worldsayshi wrote: post #542
firloop wrote: post #277

> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading volume "revenue". Last year, trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1]. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-1... [1]: https://g…

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

With proper constraints, there is a major positive externality in aggregating public and private information through market mechanisms. Robin Hanson wrote about this subject extensively. Dismissing it outright as a zero-sum game is a bit naive.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#562

Post by vovavili »

well_ackshually wrote: post #552
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There's three kinds of players on Polymarket & others * The insider trading ones that will never lose money * The wallstreetbets degenerates with enough money that it's a fun game even if you lose money * People that have seen every chance they have at becoming moderately wealthy disappear under the current economic state of their country, where overwhelming debt is likely. The era of making it wealthy from a job is…

[flagged]

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#563

Post by WickyNilliams »

goodmythical wrote: post #364
WickyNilliams wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a fair point. But I'm not talking about the legitimacy (or not) of crypto. More that the president was (is?) running a pump and dump scheme. It should be profoundly embarrassing to supporters and it should be political suicide for the scammer. But it barely registered.

I feel like you missed the suggestions that the move (the shiiling and scamming) may have surved or been subborinate to an ulterior motive. By taking relatively low risk public position (from the guy making wildly innapropriate comments and taking wildly irresponsible actions seemingly daily) they are able to effectively spread FUD with regard to crypto. And that could have been motivated by a perceived threat by cry…

Yeah I don't buy the ulterior motive. He just wants to enrich himself. That's the primary motivator for ~everything he does. Running a scam on your supporters is perfectly viable if you think nothing of them, and they think everything of you

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#564

Post by Spooky23 »

Spacecosmonaut wrote: post #545
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

There is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.

My understanding of the world is enhanced immensely because suckers can bet on how many times the president will reference the lips of his press secretary in a speech.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#565

Post by duskdozer »

socalgal2 wrote: post #194
jackfruitpeel wrote: post #88

The craziest thing here is that online gambling has been legal in the UK and Ireland for many years, and it's been such an obvious negative for those countries — and had been optimized brutally like any other tech product. When I moved over to the US a decade ago, I remember thinking 'well at least they're smart enough to have banned online gambling'. I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to…

> I am very pro personal liberties, but this stuff is weaponized to prey on a subset of humanity This triggers thoughts. I don't like people being taken advantage of. At the same time, I like my personal liberties. It feels like you can spin this idea for nearly anything. Apparently 25% of alcohol sales are to alcoholics. That sucks and you could spin this has the liquor companies taking advantage, but I have tons of…

It's just not going to be a clear hard line. Would it be ok for alcohol companies to sneak in an additive that makes those who consume their product ten times as likely to develop alcoholism? I think that's a different scenario than just selling a product, and I think that there is a lot of corporate activity just like the former.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#566

Post by WickyNilliams »

Yizahi wrote: post #368
WickyNilliams wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm still reeling from the fact that the sitting president pumped some meme coin the day (iirc) he took office. And this largely passed by without any consequence, reckoning, or repercussions. It's just accepted now that even the highest office will scam their own supporters

Forget pumping. He set free a high profile white collar criminal, who in return deposited 2 billion real dollars into Trump shitcoin exchange. And NO ONE bat the eye, not a single congressman or regulator body. Check and balances, my ass. More like cheeks and obeisances.

Yeah the whole thing is absolutely scandalous. The president being anywhere near crypto is such a huge, blaring warning. Even more so if people are "investing" as a quid pro quo. But ~nobody cares. Scam economy

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#567

Post by bcjdjsndon »

vovavili wrote: post #561
worldsayshi wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.

With proper constraints, there is a major positive externality in aggregating public and private information through market mechanisms. Robin Hanson wrote about this subject extensively. Dismissing it outright as a zero-sum game is a bit naive.

v. edgelordy

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#568

Post by duskdozer »

amarant wrote: post #384
munificent wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really want your labor enriching someone you think is a bad person? Do you want someone whose values go against yours being in a position of power over you?

Yes, I'm not so petty that I wish poverty upon everyone who holds a opinion different from mine! I'm a live and let live kind of guy

And if they're not live and let live people? If they're working to ban or destroy something you value highly? To harm you or someone you care about?

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#569

Post by intrasight »

michaelt wrote: post #546
dogcomplex wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prediction markets are just fine IF they have some means of regulation against insider trading and perverse incentives. This phase is the same thing derivatives markets looked like before the 2008 crisis and Dodd-Frank, and several other waves before that of crisis and reform (Securities Act, Market Reform Act). Every new financial medium gets its moment in the sun when all the crooks extract everything they can, bef…

> Prediction markets are just fine IF they have some means of regulation against insider trading Why? If a prediction market is supposed to predict it makes no sense to exclude the best informed people. If I want to know the risk of a Boeing airliner crashing this year, Boeing insiders have much more to contribute than armchair observers. And if a Boeing insider sabotages a plane to profit on a prediction market - th…

I agree. Don't bar anyone.

But do require KYC on all customers and require their profiles and wagers to be public. The societal values of prediction market data would be an order of magnitude more valuable this way.

And use of illegal insider info would cease.

Re: We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do

#570

Post by super256 »

jappgar wrote: post #559
Spacecosmonaut wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.

It would be useful to predict things like earthquakes and tornados. Gambling on what politicians and celebrities will do is not science it's degenerate court gossip.

Game theory can be applied to these problem, and if you can correctly model reward, cost and motives, you can predict decisions of politicians more often than not.
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