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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#551

Post by darebak »

nickpp wrote: post #522
ghostwriter wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Giving up everything trying to avoid a nuclear war is the surest way to get it. Nobody is giving up everything, what is given up at the moment is a strip of land in East Europe that could be claimed back via diplomatic arrangements as soon as Putin is gone.

The west has been giving up stuff since Putin gained power. Nothing has been claimed back yet. And he won’t be gone any time soon. He has plenty of targets after Ukraine too, for example Moldova which already has a separatist Russian mole region inside. We are watching Hitler raising, not Stalin dying here.

Don't you feel you are a bit hyperbolic?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#552

Post by pmontra »

xdennis wrote: post #543
pmontra wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Estonia is NATO since 2004. If Russia attacks Estonia ICBMs are launched and all wars are over for a long time. I expect that in the next days some member of the US government, maybe the President, will publicly remember that Mutual Assured Destruction is what kept the world mostly at peace since the 50s, except small scale wars by proxy or with only one of the USA and SSSR directly involved. So Russia won't invade,…

> If Russia attacks Estonia ICBMs are launched This is constantly questioned by Americans, including the former president. It commonly goes like this: "I like $balticCountry, but are we really going to send nukes if $balticCountry is invaded?" It might go down like WW2 when countries reacted only when large countries were invaded (Poland).

MAD works because the two parties do their best to convince the other party that they'd launch the missiles as soon as any of their allies or controlled territories are touched. If there is a crack in their resolve the other party can take a bite, then another one and then the alliance crumbles. Or they launch their missiles hoping for no retaliation.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#553

Post by xdennis »

winrid wrote: post #95

I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO? While yes, Putin very much wants his old USSR back, it seems he's doing this in response to potentially having more NATO missiles on his borders. He's basically been saying "fuck around and find out" since 2008 when we said Ukraine would have the option of joining NATO.

> I'm curious, do folks here think Putin would have still invaded if Ukraine didn't consider joining NATO?

If Ukraine had joined NATO then, Putin wouldn't have invaded. That's the solution. Not to stay away from NATO.

If Romania wouldn't have joined NATO, it would now be invaded together with Ukraine.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#554

Post by MattGaiser »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #532
MattGaiser wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.

What would stop Russia to retaliate in that case? Every western company property in Russia would become a fair game, including e.g Bidens son and his property in Ukraine. It's not the game anyone would like to play.

Nothing. But the value of the property they have likely outweighs the value of the property they have.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#555

Post by darebak »

eagleal wrote: post #370
thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kosovo is a more apt comparison. There's no way of condemning annexation of the breakaway regions, while defending doing the same with Kosovo - without coming out as a hypocrite who bends the facts to fit his needs

In a way the comparison is understandable, but in Kosovo and Bosnia there were systemic etnic persecution and genocide by the Serbian government. A more similar comparison would be the US and USSR funding of factions in Italy during the Anni di Piombo. And then say US or USSR officialy arming and sponsoring Forza Nuova (or another militant organization) for indipendence of Padania.

>In a way the comparison is understandable, but in Kosovo and Bosnia there were systemic etnic persecution and genocide by the Serbian government.

Please don't spread misinformation, there was no genocide in Kosovo* and no involment of the Serbian/Yugoslav government in the Bosnian genocide.

If you have any international court ruling which proves otherwise, you're free to link it here.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#556

Post by hobo_mark »

jonov wrote: post #531
hobo_mark wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a significant Russian minority in Estonia (as in other Baltics) who after de-russification remain "second class" citizens (without the right to vote for example).

Estonian here. That is Russian propaganda, Estonian citizens all have the right to vote. There is a minority of Russians here who do not want to learn the language and become citizens, hence they can't vote. They have the attitude that we (Estonians) are occupying their land... it's crazy. Younger generation of Russians who are born here are mostly not like that though *edit Even non-citizen Russians have the right t…

You are right of course and I should have been more precise. Can't edit, have an upvote.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#557

Post by xdennis »

teatree wrote: post #151
glogla wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Putin is only doing this because of NATO missiles" is a Russian propaganda line. It is disheartening to hear it repeated on HN.

I am not aware of Russian / European geopolitics so pardon my ignorance, but isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat? Hypothetically, wouldn't the US would have serious concerns if Mexico decides to join a Chinese alliance. (I am not justifying a war, just wondering what could have been done on both sides to prevent it)

> isn't NATO reaching Russian borders a threat?

No. NATO is a defensive alliance. Easter European countries are in NATO specifically to protect against the kind of aggression you're seeing in Ukraine now.

Russia used to regularly invade neighbors: Poland 1939, Romania, Baltic countries, Finland 1940, Everywhere 1944, Hungary 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968. None have been invaded since joining NATO.

NATO expansion is removing threats, not creating them.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#558

Post by nickpp »

darebak wrote: post #551
nickpp wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The west has been giving up stuff since Putin gained power. Nothing has been claimed back yet. And he won’t be gone any time soon. He has plenty of targets after Ukraine too, for example Moldova which already has a separatist Russian mole region inside. We are watching Hitler raising, not Stalin dying here.

Don't you feel you are a bit hyperbolic?

I’d ask my friend in Kiev if he feels I am being hyperbolic but for some reason he’s not answering his messages right now.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#559

Post by jdrc »

tasuki wrote: post #548
jdrc wrote: post #453

Would be interesting to hear from any russians in here, because i can't help to think that large majority of russians are complicit to what seems to be a dictator going mad as much as the dictators in his neighborhood (aliyev, khomeini, taliban etc)

Why do you think Putin is going mad? His actions might be immoral, but I don't think they're illogical. I see Putin as a very competent and ruthless leader. As a citizen of a post communist country, I'm somewhat concerned.

> but I don't think they're illogical.

Can you elaborate, in material terms, what does russia win by invading and occupying ukraine? What do you imagine the economy of ukrainian people will be after this?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#560

Post by fredophile »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #29
fredophile wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine isn't part of NATO so article 5 doesn't apply here.

That is why I said, "even though it is not Article 5"

Your next sentence started with, "Article 5 invocation under these circumstances" which gave me the impression you meant that article 5 could somehow be invoked here. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
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