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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#541

Post by drewbug01 »

mort96 wrote: post #360
CodeArtisan wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not a native English speaker and may have badly expressed myself. I am not urging the "west" or "allieds" to intervene nor i am condemning them for not to. But if they were serious about stopping Putin, they would have sent troops weeks before the invasion. When Joseph Biden went everyday on television to warn that the invasion was imminent and that usa will not send troops but instead establish more economic sa…

I don't understand. You're not urging the "west" or "allies" to intervene, but you want them to have sent troops to fight russian troops? In what world isn't that "intervening"?

My understanding of the comment in question is: "Sanctions are not an effective deterrent; if the West truly wanted to put a stop to this they should have sent troops because that's the only thing that Russia would listen to."

Debatable as to the truth of that sentiment, perhaps. And obviously ... NATO and Russia being at war would be incredibly disastrous. But, I do think it's possible to hold that sentiment in good faith - I feel something similar. I desperately do not want to be in a "hot" war with Russia, but at the same time I recognize that sanctions are ineffective.

The lesson here, perhaps, is that the options range from "bad" to "worse." :(

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#542

Post by tut-urut-utut »

ricardobayes wrote: post #155
CodeArtisan wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

Next up is Finland. Also not a NATO member.

Why would Finland be the next? Because someone wants to scare them to join NATO?

Finland was already able to resist Russian aggression once not so long ago (by European standards), and Russia paid a dire price for attacking in man life. Later, Finland also paid its toll, but in territory.

Both sides learned their lesson. Finland is not going to provoke Russia, and Russia is not going to attach again without reason.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#543

Post by xdennis »

pmontra wrote: post #469
deepsun wrote: post #365

I've grew up near Russia, and I can describe you their mindset: all "agreements", "sanctions", "borders" etc don't matter. They are just distractions to prepare positions and advance their military. All that matters is force. There's a Russian proverb: "All territories are ours, it's just someone temporary occupied them". They also think in terms of territories (not people or economy) and victories. If they start los…

Estonia is NATO since 2004. If Russia attacks Estonia ICBMs are launched and all wars are over for a long time. I expect that in the next days some member of the US government, maybe the President, will publicly remember that Mutual Assured Destruction is what kept the world mostly at peace since the 50s, except small scale wars by proxy or with only one of the USA and SSSR directly involved. So Russia won't invade,…

> If Russia attacks Estonia ICBMs are launched

This is constantly questioned by Americans, including the former president. It commonly goes like this: "I like $balticCountry, but are we really going to send nukes if $balticCountry is invaded?"

It might go down like WW2 when countries reacted only when large countries were invaded (Poland).

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#544

Post by tut-urut-utut »

eagleal wrote: post #370
thow-58d4e8b wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kosovo is a more apt comparison. There's no way of condemning annexation of the breakaway regions, while defending doing the same with Kosovo - without coming out as a hypocrite who bends the facts to fit his needs

In a way the comparison is understandable, but in Kosovo and Bosnia there were systemic etnic persecution and genocide by the Serbian government. A more similar comparison would be the US and USSR funding of factions in Italy during the Anni di Piombo. And then say US or USSR officialy arming and sponsoring Forza Nuova (or another militant organization) for indipendence of Padania.

> but in Kosovo and Bosnia there were systemic etnic persecution and genocide by the Serbian government.

Which turned to be false. The Racak massacre that provoked Bosnian intervention was a lie used to make a case for an invasion. Similar to mass weapons in Iraq that were never found. The same in Bosnia, where Markale incident used to accuse one side of war crimes later appeared to be organized by Muslim paramilitary to provoke military intervention and make a press.

The only thing Serbian side did wrong, is that it was ruled by socialist (ex-communist) party.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#545

Post by xdennis »

gadders wrote: post #399
wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

Because despite agreements to the contrary, NATO keeps trying to expand into Ukraine.

What agreement?

This is the agreement that Russia signed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...

What agreement did NATO sign to not expand? Produce it!

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#546

Post by shawabawa3 »

gpderetta wrote: post #524
shawabawa3 wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Finland is in the EU - a much stronger alliance than NATO

but so far with no military. That might change in the future though, after brexit and this.

The EU itself has no military but its member states do and are obligated to help if a member is invaded

"If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power"

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#547

Post by light_hue_1 »

gpderetta wrote: post #374
light_hue_1 wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a matter of "again". Gas purchases are not on the table as far as sanctions go. It's the other way around. The EU is afraid that if they impose serious sanctions Russia will cut off the gas supply. This will hurt the EU far more than it hurts Russia in the short term.

Doesn't most of european gas run through Ukraine? Ukraine could use it as leverage .

Ukraine's goal is not to antagonize Europe. There's on leverage in threatening your friends.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#548

Post by tasuki »

jdrc wrote: post #453

Would be interesting to hear from any russians in here, because i can't help to think that large majority of russians are complicit to what seems to be a dictator going mad as much as the dictators in his neighborhood (aliyev, khomeini, taliban etc)

Why do you think Putin is going mad? His actions might be immoral, but I don't think they're illogical.

I see Putin as a very competent and ruthless leader. As a citizen of a post communist country, I'm somewhat concerned.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#549

Post by gpderetta »

light_hue_1 wrote: post #547
gpderetta wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't most of european gas run through Ukraine? Ukraine could use it as leverage .

Ukraine's goal is not to antagonize Europe. There's on leverage in threatening your friends.

It is certainly a last resort option, but on the face of existential threat, denying Russia a major source of income to finance the war is a legitimate goal.

The major point of Nord Stream 2 was to remove this PoF.

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