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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#311

Post by ct0 »

sgjohnson wrote: post #285
jaspax wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically a Mexican standoff, right? In the timeframe of months to years, Europe needs to buy Russian oil and gas as much as Russia needs to sell them. Neither side can unilaterally break off the relationship without suffering massive harm. Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more, not something that you can do in the timeframe of the current conflict.

> Getting to full energy independence with renewables is a project that will take a decade or more. Try at least 2-3 decades. Personally I'm still a firm believer in nuclear power.

You aren't alone thinking nuclear is the best outcome in the renewables plan forward.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#312

Post by pbourke »

RobertoG wrote: post #175
watwut wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not understandable. "I don't like nato at the border, therefore I will push my border toward nato". Russian "nato is ennemy" exists, because Russia wants nato be ennemy. It prevents further expansion.

Some question that nobody is asking is, "what's the role of NATO?" The historical original reason for its existence have disappeared, so what is it for now?

> The historical original reason for its existence have disappeared

It seems that we are being reminded that it has not.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#313

Post by light_hue_1 »

MobiusHorizons wrote: post #292
light_hue_1 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia cares a lot about who its sells its energy to. China is a far worse trade partner than Europe. Europe is easy to bully, it doesn't have a single voice and its pretty predictable which parts will have competing interests. China is not. Russia will lose a lot of its independence if it becomes beholden to China. That would be a bad endgame. Europe is also beholden to public opinion that does not want increased en…

As a motivation that makes sense, but what alternative will Russia have? Do you think Russia is banking on Europe eventually lifting sanctions and purchasing gas again?

It's not a matter of "again". Gas purchases are not on the table as far as sanctions go. It's the other way around. The EU is afraid that if they impose serious sanctions Russia will cut off the gas supply. This will hurt the EU far more than it hurts Russia in the short term.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#314

Post by foxfluff »

RobertoG wrote: post #148
watwut wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?

Ukraine is in the middle of two "powers" and the proper role would be one of buffer. They could even benefit from that. Unfortunately, the Russian and the USA have both tried to take that part of the board for them and the Ukrainian population is split on their loyalties. Russian, simply can't allow more of the board, specially one part so close, to be dominated by the opponent. Anyone that think this conflict in ter…

> My prediction: A repetition of Crimea. The Donbas will be incorporate to the Russian area of influence, but not the rest of Ukraine, some noises will be done by the West about sanctions or whatever and in five years nobody will remember.

And in six years Putin will grab more land again, knowing that nobody will do more than "condemn" it because everyone is afraid of the other scenarios.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#315

Post by vetinari »

mopsi wrote: post #305
vetinari wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'. Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.

> Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. No, it does not. A number of Eastern European countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member? Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every…

> No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons.

Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe.

Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be already there.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#316

Post by robbedpeter »

raducu wrote: post #275
ayngg wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time…

Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes. Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

Russian oligarchs care about borders, trade routes, and cargo ships. It's about money and power. Russia obviously doesn't give a rat's ass about democracy, they have their population locked up tight.

They expect to move in, battle, secure new territory, deal with stern blabber and a slap on the wrist, and it'll be back to business as usual, with slightly higher profit margins.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#317

Post by pfortuny »

jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Do you think Putin did not take this into account? Europe has messed with herself and her dealings with Russia for so long that we are totally utterly self-screwed (renewables… tell that to the 400EU/MWh).

Like with China. Look: as a protest for the Uygurs, the US did not send… diplomats!

What a shame.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#318

Post by WJW »

eej71 wrote: post #266
jl6 wrote: post #121

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus Russia’s exports are >50% oil and gas products. The biggest retaliation the West can make right now is a commitment to a rapid exit at unprecedented speed from the oil economy, in favor of renewables.

Many countries could also source fossil fuels from friendly allies. But those allies would have to be interested in extracting it from their own sources. From my stand point, and this will be very unpopular here, the push to rely on the unreliables (a better name for the renewables) has been toxic and is a destabilizing force in the world.

As is becoming painfully clear right now, relying on other countries for your energy needs is also unreliable. You just get unpredictable and large supply shocks every few years instead of smaller predictable ones every night.

Building out grid level energy storage looks like a way better solution than hoping the countries which are allies now will remain so indefinitely.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#319

Post by chinathrow »

Giorgi wrote: post #59
chinathrow wrote: post #43

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

"showing force" is such a light way to describe it, this is full scale invasion into Europe, with the target to annihilate whole country while impotent civilized west watches it unfold in the fears that they may be next.

I didn't mean to describe it in a light way, at all.

I fully agree with your description that this is a full scale invasion into a sovereign country.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#320

Post by Beltalowda »

wiz21c wrote: post #118

Why does Putin try to invade parts of Ukraine ? What's its interest ? Is it economical ? is it for interior politics ? is it to destabilize Europe ? does someone can conjecture a bit ?

Lots of different takes on this, but I don't think Putin is as imperialistic or "crazy" as he's made out to be. Much of the problem is that the US promised Ukraine (and Georgia) that they could become a NATO member. From Putin's point of view that's the US expanding their influence right up to Russian's doorstep. While the cold war is over, it's not like "the west" (broadly speaking) and Russia ever really become allies.

In a perfect world Ukraine should of course have the freedom to join NATO; but it's not a perfect world and we can't wish Putin or general Russian attitudes away. All of this could have been avoided if we just rescinded the NATO invitation (or better yet, never made it in the first place) and have Ukraine remain a neutral "border state".

I don't like Putin or Russia's attitude one bit by the way; but when the stakes are this high you really have to deal with reality as it is, not as you want it to be. Ukraine not joining NATO would have been a minor inconvenience at best; Ukraine at war is a much bigger deal, especially for the Ukrainian people. We kinda screwed them over in a game of international politics.

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