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Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

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Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#551

Post by donkeyd »

the8472 wrote: post #343
larksimian wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And the answer is yes, they are less safe than human driven cars( https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-t... ) "activating auto steer increased crash rate by 50%" Tesla safety stats are ok when compared to the average car on the road. But that's because they are expensive, high quality cars driven by middle aged people. It's the safest car demographic on the road. When comparing auto drive teslas…

Tesla is only one of several players in the game. Waymo is generally considered to be better and safer at the moment.

Waymo is only better in a very well-known and predictable setting. You can't pick it up and deploy it instantly. It's geofenced to a small part of a US city.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#552

Post by laichzeit0 »

iamaelephant wrote: post #547
Veedrac wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that Google's system operates in pre-mapped areas and uses lidar.

So it operates under the conditions that we expect the commercially available product to operate under? Yeah cool thanks for the caveat.

So where can I buy a Google car today?

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#553

Post by toast0 »

jjallen wrote: post #526
adrr wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is at least 5 years ahead of Tesla. They are running driverless self driving cars already on city streets. My Model 3 can’t even navigate a parking a lot half the time I use the summon feature.

Ancedote: this evening in Mountain View, the driver of one of Waymo's test vans had to take over (I watched her grab the wheel). The van had come to a complete stop with room to pass a USPS truck (it appeared safe to me from 25 feet away), and didn't begin moving again for a few seconds. She then took control.

The waymo cars have always been timid. That's why most of the collisions involve the waymo car getting rear ended. They don't move when other drivers expect them to.

Of course, this is annoying, and being so timid that you get rear ended is unsafe, but the Tesla approach would be the delivery truck is detected as a stationary object and ignored, so the vehicle would accelerate to the set speed in 3 seconds and slam into it. (See the many reports of Teslas running into stopped emergency vehicles). Of course, Tesla will tell you that their car isn't really self-driving with one side of their mouth, while telling you your car is equipped for self-driving out of the other side.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#555

Post by mrich »

optimiz3 wrote: post #226
mrich wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A massive short-squeeze/bitcoin-like retail bubble is certainly not indicative of the strength of the company. Look at the last earnings report, it wasn't impressive for a growth company.

More capital volume happened on TSLA today than SPY. Do you think that's a retail bubble? Only the top 1% of global asset controllers have the ability to do that.

Why do you think it's appreciating? Do you believe that volume comes from large asset controllers going long at that price level?

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#556

Post by grey-area »

platz wrote: post #370
grey-area wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, there are various inadequacies in the data, Tesla is clearly not an unbiased source (though there has been some verification from gov agencies), but I think the rapidly decreasing accident rate is significant (even when compared to the same car without those features), and we'll see numbers continue to improve over time. Most people are simply not careful drivers all the time. This is one major advantage comput…

Would you accept a higher risk of accident for you and your children, if it meant that an order of magnitude more other bad drivers would be saved? Also keep in mind the outrage factor. The reason airplane crashes are so feared is because of the loss of control. Meanwhile alcohol and cars are much more dangerous but much lower outrage because you still feel like you have some control.

Everyone thinks they are better than average.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#557

Post by toast0 »

tim333 wrote: post #517
spookthesunset wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for some reason often believed by otherwise quite smart people I don't understand why so many smart "tech people" fall for the hype. Maybe it is because "machine learning" is just abstract enough that even the most jaded developer thinks they can treat it like a black box where if you pour enough videos, photos and LIDAR readings for training into the top it will somehow spit out a fully autonomous self driving car…

As to "tech people" falling for the hype, it all depends which particular hype but: "surprised if we saw fully self driving cars any time in the next 50 years." a couple of years after there have been self driving cars driving around Arizona https://youtu.be/aaOB-ErYq6Y?t=93 reminds me of quotes like "The aeroplane will never fly." — Lord Haldane, 1907 a while after the Wright brothers had done many flights. You coul…

Rather expensive self-driving cars, with safety drivers have been driving around a very small part of Arizona, right?

That's not really that close to an affordable self-driving car that I can take overnight door to door from the bay area to the Los Angeles area while I sleep.

That may not be 50 years away, but it sure doesn't seem any nearer than 20 years. Progress towards something usable has been pretty slow, and the edge cases are going to be tricky.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#558

Post by solidasparagus »

xiphias2 wrote: post #80
Traster wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two issues, first: I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? Second, don't Tesla & SpaceX have a reputation for being a terrible place to work, with Musk expecting everyone to be working as hard (or harder) than him, and firing people in weird and capricious ways.

- I thought fully autonomous driving was meant to be done by now? One thing that Elon did is gathering lots of video data instead of perfecting LIDAR, and at this point it seems that he was right: until detecting objects in 3D from video data is completely solved, self driving can't work. After it's solved, LIDAR is not needed. - Tesla & SpaceX have a reputation for being a terrible place to work When I'm looking for…

> One thing that Elon did is gathering lots of video data instead of perfecting LIDAR

I really don't understand this thought. Every self-driving car company has more raw data than they can realistically use. I don't see how Tesla has some advantage

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#559

Post by toast0 »

wenc wrote: post #43
yeahboats wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Near where I live we've got two lanes + turn lanes on all 4 sides. It is a nightmare both as a driver and as a pedestrian. I'm not sure how that gets put in place or gets addressed as it inevitably gets busier. Traffic circles perhaps?

Traffic circles work better, but most people in North America have trouble with 2-lane traffic circles. (they're common in most places around the world)

Most people in north america have trouble with 1-lame traffic circles, because they're almost uniformly too small. Traffic engineers like to wedge them in as retrofits, when there's already a lot of stuff built up around an intersection, and it's not feasible to enlarge the intersection to make it work well.

Traffic signals with good sensors are more space efficient, and usually more time efficient when there's congestion, and more pedestrian friendly. Proper sensor design means no or little waiting during low traffic times too. Traffic circles can help with akward intersections though, where there's more than 4 entrances or exits, and some three way intersections work well too.

Re: Tesla's self driving algorithm's overlay [video]

#560

Post by solidasparagus »

bdamm wrote: post #286
kodablah wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not the real issue, that's just the initial domino. The real issue is how self-driving companies will combat that. They'll surely want to record film at all times and have a pipeline to law enforcement to curb suspected bullies. It's often the over-correcting solution that becomes the bigger problem. There are analogues in other human-robot interactions.

Waymo resolved this early on by encoding the human resolution into the action. Stopping as required by law, then moving forward slowly until the next action is more clear.

Waymo 'resolved' this by not driving in areas where people intentionally fuck with self-driving cars.
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