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From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

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Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#541

Post by jagger27 »

Melting_Harps wrote: post #521
jagger27 wrote: post #309

Got a butternut squash in your pantry? Maybe a couple of tomatoes? Cook it up for dinner and save some seeds! Wash off the pulp and dry them out on a paper towel. It's not too late to start some seedlings, and it's a nice way to pass the time. I've also been experimenting with different dried beans that we stocked up on, and most of them have a pretty high germination rate. Roma beans are super tasty and high in prot…

I like your initiative, the attention and how you've acted to the what I think has proven to be a DIRE logistical and production problem since at least 2008. But, I noticed this part: > Got a butternut squash in your pantry? Maybe a couple of tomatoes? Both of those are out of season, the Butternut squash has decent shelf life, so could have been harvested and stored back in the Fall. However, most of the store stuff…

I’m a big fan of Rare Seeds as well. I got a big order from them early this year.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#542

Post by kasey_junk »

throwawayjava wrote: post #475
kasey_junk wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically problems in fresh veg supply has translated into higher prices for both meat and grains as consumers switch their preferences. The futures markets for grains and meats are both running lower right now. The pros think that demand is going down due to economic activity and the supply chain issues aren’t going to make a dent in that. I have no position but the reading of the markets is that no one is worrie…

> The pros think that demand is going down due to economic activity Does that make any sense? Do people eat fewer grains when economic activity goes down?

Meat takes a huge hit in economic downturns. Meat is what eats the grains sold in futures markets.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#543

Post by s1artibartfast »

jodrellblank wrote: post #473
drstewart wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guess what? Everyone dies. And every day is a choice between things that increase that risk. Saying "no one wants to die, stop being greedy!" as if you can eliminate all deaths through a simple action is a nice low effort slogan that doesn't make any sense in the real world.

> Guess what? Everyone dies The unpleasant part is not solely people dying, it's the volunteering of other people dying by people who assume they won't die from it, and not for their own survival but to keep a level of personal comfort and luxury. Assume you are in the group who would die, but economic sacrifice keeps you alive. Now, hands up if you are willing to trade that - to definitely die in April 2020, or suic…

Economic conditions have real and immediate health consequences too.

For example, in 2010 US unemployment briefly grew about 6% to a total of 10% in the US and there were 40,000 additional deaths from cancer alone[1]. When you consider heart disease, other illness, drug abuse, and suicide, the numbers are much greater. The often cited number of 40k for each percent unemployment may not be far off if these factors are taken together. We may have already volunteered hundreds of thousands of Americans to die from the economic fallout. If food scarcity becomes and issue, we may have already volunteered millions in the 3rd world to starve to death...

I'm not saying that I know what the correct choice is here, but it isn't as simple as saving lives vs GDP.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

This trend also holds true in the OECD where social programs are more common because there are still budgetary constraints on centralized healthcare. Here is a Meta-analysis showing that the risk of death was 63% higher among those who experienced unemployment in the US AND Europe

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#544

Post by s1artibartfast »

6510 wrote: post #482
jmalicki wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in other words, after one famine where a large fraction of the population dies, the market will be better afterwards? Especially with anti-price-gouging laws - this process is explicit forbidden from happening during a crisis.

nah, the regulators will move in and save us from ourselves.

Regulators might be able to legislate food into existence in counties with strategic reserves, but not all places are so lucky. If there isn't enough calories produced, people would die. Most in low GDP countries which are net food importers.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#545

Post by whytaka »

koheripbal wrote: post #533
whytaka wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious case of the epidemic in China progressing into a global pandemic wasn't clear to traders back in early February. I'm not sure the market is a beacon more than it is a barometer.

If you really believe that, then you have an opportunity to make a ton of money.

I did make money from the crash but this shortages stuff isn't as obvious as the pandemic was.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#546

Post by s1artibartfast »

ricardobeat wrote: post #351
Spooky23 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have friends who are locomotive engineers, none of them have been called out for 3 weeks. Everything is stopping. I think the US is going to learn why it’s dangerous to centralize food supply. Most of the local farmers in my region (upstate ny) are bankrupt, and much of our production or processing of food is from far away. The half and half from my grocer is processed in Virginia.

The crisis started not even a month ago. What kind of business are people running that go bankrupt in a couple weeks? At least where I come from, most local farmers can't "go bankrupt" as they are family businesses and have very low operating costs - worst case is sitting idle at home.

Im not sure where you are from, but in general, farming is a cutthroat business with small margins in the US

The exception is rich hobby farmers who have no need to make a profit and some specialty crops.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#547

Post by s1artibartfast »

neilwilson wrote: post #260
scanr wrote: post #233

Fruit and veg 'will run out' unless Britain charters planes to fly in farm workers from eastern Europe. UK urgently needs 90,000 labourers to pick crops that will otherwise die in the fields, warns charity. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/28/fruit-an...

With 3 million people in the UK still without work that want it - and many more laid off, redundant or self-employed without clients, the solution should be obvious. Pay a decent wage and you'll get the people. The era of cheap labour is over.

> Pay a decent wage and you'll get the people. The era of cheap labour is over.

or maybe some labor intensive fruits and veggies will no longer be economically viable.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#548

Post by BryanBigs »

baybal2 wrote: post #97
yunusabd wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your second link goes to a still image. I assume you mean this [1] video? Though I don't see how that supports the statement that China has spent a big portion of its national reserve. [1] https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/122072527639456563...

China imports a gigantic amount of food, and ports were first to be hit by disruption . As a person who works in OEM electronics in China, I can tell at least that. So, at any normal day, China would've been eating 30-32% of world's food by value, while producing 20% of it by itself. Agriculture has been on shutdown for the past 2.5 months. Farms have slaughtered a large portion of their livestock, and a big portion…

Well before this crisis in mid 2019, China culled a majority of it's hog herd. I think it was African Swine Flu if I remember right. So they were already low on home produced protein when this struck.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#549

Post by s1artibartfast »

jiggawatts wrote: post #354
Etheryte wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sadly, I think this is an example of what I would maybe call the HN Dunning-Kruger approach to many problems: "just" use IT/AI/robots/etc. There are many companies who have been working in this space for a long time, there's a reason why it's still manual work — it's freaking hard. Berries are a good example of this, personally I'm intricately familiar with the strawberry industry, but I believe it applies elsewhere…

It has been done! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCivsotZEjk There's actually several designs out there for picking strawberries, but like the OP said, expensive robots aren't competitive with cheap labour. If the labour pool dries up, they're more economically viable.

>If the labor pool dries up, they're more economically viable.

I wonder if strawberries would cease being an economically viable crop before this level of mechanization becomes viable.

Re: From Spain to Germany, farmers warn of fresh food shortages

#550

Post by s1artibartfast »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #160
pjc50 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price is set by wholesalers, especially supermarkets. I'm not convinced they can re-eqilibriate the market before the harvest spoils.

If the wholesalers want the product to sell it, then they will change the price so that it makes sense to harvest it.

If this price is too high, the wholesalers will not be able to sell it and choose not to buy it
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