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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

541–550 of 606 posts

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> who can't follow a test that elaborate and complicated. There's also the possibility that giving up an addiction is not an intellectual activity (if you think about it a little!)

Maybe ... But the process of getting addicted certainly involves making some choices poorly.

My addiction to coffee involved no poor choices, I don’t regret it and it makes me a better person. Lack of it makes my performance much worse, I get a migraine with vertigo and vomiting.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#542

I had a long talk with a guy getting his general contractor's license yesterday. He told me that down in San Diego they are continually short on construction workers, so much that one of his friends said that there is 10 years worth of construction that needs to be done and no one to do it. Wages at ~$45/hr, and probably rising, some projects paying perdiems for commutes from Orange County. Strange.

Construction is becoming more and more specialized. There are many machines that need to be operated, together with regulations it requires high skilled people.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And alcohol is ok to abuse. Why? It would…

Because they are a liability if they come to work high, or they have illegal drugs on them at work.

Being mildly hung over is ok, but having had a joint just under 2 weeks ago isn’t? Who does that policy serve? It’s stupid.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober, and not hungover what business is it of the employers what the employee does on their own time? The drugs that are readily detectable are mostly the ones that don’t matter too, while the ones that are more concerning (to me anyway) are either not tested for or are not detectable fairly fast. And alcohol is ok to abuse. Why? It would…

If you were familiar the severity of the opioid crisis in many working class areas you wouldn't be surprised by the testing or the results.

Ironically, that is a class of drug you can be on legally, and still work.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#545
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always find it a bit strange when people talk about shortages of non-price-controlled goods and services. When you say that the industry is "short on construction workers", there's an implicit "who will work for what we used to pay them." It seems to me like it's someone who hires in that industry trying to entice more talent to come help lower the price again, rather than an accurate description of the state of th…

If it takes 3 years to become good at construction work, there can definitely be a 3+ year shortage in qualified construction workers.

That's not a shortage. That's just a time lag. It would be a shortage if nobody trains to become a construction worker because of price controls like minimum wage or maximum wage in an alternate universe.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#546
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always find it a bit strange when people talk about shortages of non-price-controlled goods and services. When you say that the industry is "short on construction workers", there's an implicit "who will work for what we used to pay them." It seems to me like it's someone who hires in that industry trying to entice more talent to come help lower the price again, rather than an accurate description of the state of th…

You can't just create 100,000 new construction workers in San Diego because you raise wages from $45 to $60 per hour. Labor availability + skill + time + market awareness = it takes a helluva lot longer than months or 2-3 years to meaningfully boost a skill trade. Labor availabity means: how many people - heavily influenced by the unemployment rate - are interested in putting in the time to go retrain themselves to d…

>You can't just create 100,000 new construction workers in San Diego because you raise wages from $45 to $60 per hour.

That means you're not paying enough.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#547
post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my very limited personal experience, it's not that hard to get a worker to come do a job on my house. It is EXTREMELY hard to get someone who actually does quality work and is reliable. You could argue that I'd get better and more reliable people if I paid them more, but the fact is, I pay them what they ask for. I have very low confidence that just offering to pay double would make a bad worker into a good one.

Consumer services aren't really the point being made upthread, it's employers looking for supervised labor who can tolerate some spread in skills. But you can do this too: call up the elite contractors who you can't schedule because they're "too busy" and give them a big number upfront. "I need my carpets replaced, I figure this will be $30k, does that sound right?". They'll be there. But you have to do the work to k…

If someone called me up and said, "I've got a software development contract opportunity for you in Country X, $1000/hr, job should be about 6 months." My ass would be on a plane that afternoon. So much for the shortage of software developers.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#548
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great! There’s an opportunity for same day rental delivery here too

And in the end you'll have spent more than you would have with a regular plumber, you'll have a bunch of tools you won't need for another 10 years, and the job will look terrible. Source: had to retile a bit of a floor, too small to interest a real tiler. Guess how it looks now?

As someone who does as much as I can around the home myself, this attitude baffles me. I consider my tools and knowledge a financial investment: most are used at least monthly, some weekly. I'd never be able to afford living in my home if I paid a contractor to come out every time my toilet leaked. Likewise, my car ownership costs would increase substantially if I paid a mechanic $100 to change the oil or $1000 to service the brakes.

Also, most light everyday home maintenance work like laying tile, building a fence, framing a wall, installing plumbing, etc. is not rocket science. You don't have to be Bob Vila or go to trade school for years to learn how to do it.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#549
Maybe this is simple fact of exhausting of 'Chinese advantage' of lower wages in developing countries, that used to drive jobs abroad? Even about 2007, there were forecasts that Chinese wages will rise to the level which no longer drives American jobs away - to ~20% of American level, rest is compensated by lower productivity - by about 2015. It was long ago expected to be a turnaround year. So why are everyone surprised?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it takes 3 years to become good at construction work, there can definitely be a 3+ year shortage in qualified construction workers.

That's not a shortage. That's just a time lag. It would be a shortage if nobody trains to become a construction worker because of price controls like minimum wage or maximum wage in an alternate universe.

How is that not a (temporary) shortage? When did it become part of the definition that all shortages must be permanent?

What if nobody trains to become a construction worker (for whatever reason) and then over the next 5-10 years demand goes down because people get used to making do with the buildings that already exist? Is it also not a shortage then?

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