Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last? • Hacker News Board

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#51

Post by victor106 » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

thanatropism wrote: post #20

rm999 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you may be underestimating the importance of this article to US politics. One of the biggest issues in the 2016 election was stagnating blue-collar wages - it was one of Trump's main platforms, and one of the main factors that made him President. If the economy continues to do well across all income levels, regardless of why, and regardless of how unpopular Trump remains, there is a good chance we will see a…

Did you begin disliking Scott Adams when he became a Trump booster, or...?

No. When he let it out that 1. He supports the NRA even after the recent gun violence 2. When he supported Trumps statements during Charlottesville 3. When he keeps saying on Twitter how the alt-right is so correct.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#52

Post by alextheparrot » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:21 PM UTC

bdamm wrote: post #14

onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

"Now grab a 3ft section of copper tubing, cut it to length with your pipe cutter, bend it with your copper bending tool, and flare it with your flare clamp... what, you don't have any of those? Wellll.."

Great! There’s an opportunity for same day rental delivery here too

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#53

Post by Xylakant » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

gthtjtkt wrote: post #32

danielvf wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably none [edit: in manufacturing]. Most illegal immigrants don’t work manufacturing. The three most common jobs for illegals around here are construction, yardcare, and building cleaning via nested subcontractors. Manufactures have hard assets they could loose. Sketchy subcontractors can just disappear and rename. The growth is from the demand side - people are buying more right now.

> Probably none. Most illegal immigrants don’t work manufacturing. You say that as if the jobs taken by illegals exist in some alternate universe where simple economic principles don't apply. If an illegal immigrant's job is vacant (because he couldn't enter the country) and a would-be manufacturing worker fills that job, that obviously has a direct impact on the manufacturer's ability to hire that worker. He's no lo…

This makes little sense. Illegal immigrants usually occupy the least qualified and least-paid jobs. Few persons that are qualified to apply for a manufacturing would rather apply for a job that an illegal immigrant could get.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#54

Post by throwawayjava » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

bkohlmann wrote: post #49

throwawayjava wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary. > Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. So don't give drug tests? > Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at a…

The thing about manufacturing jobs is that they often involve operating heavy machinery. Drug use and intoxication drastically increases the chance of death or dismemberment - for the inebriated, or often, others around them. As a pilot, I seriously don’t care if you show up to work high or not - unless you’re doing maintenance on the jet I’m supposed to fly.

Fail drug test != show up to work high.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#55

Post by alextheparrot » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:22 PM UTC

PeterisP wrote: post #45

onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

What's the business model there? If the job would take a plumber 30 minutes, it'll take me an hour - so instead of paying a plumber for 30 minutes of work, I'd need to pay him for an hour of supervision; so I'd be paying more for the privilege of doing it myself.

Presumably a single plumber could handle multiple clients, plus you are already paying for his commute, which you probably don’t need to do (in your own house)

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#56

Post by throwawayjava » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:23 PM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #42

throwawayjava wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last week one company setup interviews with 20 possible new workers. One showed up for his interview, and one wandered in the next day. 18 nonshows. I bet you'd get approx. 0 noshows if you bumped salary. > Another local company is seeing 50% of new hires failing their first drug test. So don't give drug tests? > Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at a…

> So don't give drug tests? While I agree that drug tests are a scam as a white collar worker, I do think they're necessary from a liability perspective if you're in construction, manufacturing, or driving a company vehicle. I fully support the use of recreational drugs on someone's own time, but you have to weed out (forgive the pun) those who are under the influence when loss of life or limb is a risk.

So give sobriety tests, not drug tests.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#57

Post by hiram112 » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:23 PM UTC

danielvf wrote: post #25

xefer wrote: post #16

Since this article focuses on the U.S., how much of this is related to the slowdown in illegal immigration?

Probably none [edit: in manufacturing]. Most illegal immigrants don’t work manufacturing. The three most common jobs for illegals around here are construction, yardcare, and building cleaning via nested subcontractors. Manufactures have hard assets they could loose. Sketchy subcontractors can just disappear and rename. The growth is from the demand side - people are buying more right now.

Did you even read the article:

>In some industries the labour shortage seems acute. Now is not a good time for Americans to remodel their bathrooms: tile and terrazzo contractors earn 11% more per hour than a year ago (and fully one-third more than in 2014).

This is exactly the type of jobs that have been flooded by immigrants from Latin America - both illegal and legal - for decades. I speak Spanish and often talk with immigrants at bars or wherever, and they work in numerous industries.

The one thing that changed my view of the whole system was realizing that absolutely no company gives a shit about the laws. Guys who had been here a year or less, couldn't speak any English, were hired for government contracting jobs on roads and the metro paying tons of overtime at near-union wages.

Also, labor markets are fluid. If a citizen can make more in construction, he might quit his shitty manufacturing job.

But, hey, anything to continue with the absurd narrative that massive immigration hasn't been a very major part of wage destruction for both blue-collar and also white-collar jobs via H1Bs, OPT, L1, etc.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#58

Post by dionidium » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:23 PM UTC

neves wrote: post #27

dionidium wrote: post #17

I work at a medium-sized software company. We've had similar problems with younger employees. Guys literally posting in company-wide Slack channels that they're "feeling a little sleepy this morning, gonna be in later." Can you even imagine somebody saying that to their boss in some black-and-white movie from the 1940s? "Hey, how about instead of coming in later you hit the bricks and never come back?" The culture ha…

I'd prefer my software developers with a sharp mind than sleepy zumbis that are just physically present.

That's a perfectly valid company policy. What I think is different is that it's quickly becoming a cultural expectation in some cohorts, not merely an employee-friendly perk.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#59

Post by ben_jones » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:23 PM UTC

thanatropism wrote: post #29

This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant, wages tend to rise. was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

Whatever the crossing number is I don't believe it. There is too much incentive for the number to be artificially higher or lower. Politicians in border states want it low. Border patrol want it low. Feds want to show marked "improvement".

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#60

Post by sbov » Tue, Nov 21, 2017, 4:23 PM UTC

westbywest wrote: post #18

onion2k wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine there's an opportunity for a startup that let's someone who wants to do a simple job themselves Facetime with a plumber to talk them through the work. No idea if there's any profit in it though.

A substantial factor in licensed tradespersons' ability to collect the wages they get is that many situations require the work be done by a license holder. For example electrical or plumbing repairs done to satisfy a building code violation are often expected to have permit paperwork documenting the repair. License = ability to pull permit.

It varies somewhat by city, but it's pretty universal that if it's for your residence you don't need a license to pull a permit.