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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#531
post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's two sides to it. For peak loads and shorter routes measured in minutes or hours with easy charging possibilities batteries have been coming for 5-7 years now. The issue is charging since no regen is possible except load smoothing due to operating current engines at a higher thermal efficiency. It's an industry that only looks at cost and barely makes money, efficiency and low-cost workers has been the name of…

For short haul (think ferries) the same calculations will make electric ships feasible when distance travelled is 1 or 2 order of magnitude less. Such ships already exist. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50233206

Yep, that is feasible today. Coastal ferries and routes counted in hours.

Here's a larger ferry connecting Sweden and Denmark that was converted to hybrid with the goal to not use any diesels in regular service. Has 4 160 kWh battery capacity, one trip takes 20 minutes and uses 1 175 kWh.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyWcY4bTdl8

A company specializing in it is https://corvusenergy.com/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#532
post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel" - Saeed Al Maktoum

> ...his son will ride a camel I wonder if in the future, camels will be owned and/or ridden only by very wealthy individuals. (like many horses nowadays)

Horses and camels were always the playthings of the rich. About 1860-1910 it got to the middle-rich farmer (In the US many farmers had 100 acre farms: the value of that land alone means rich even if it was value you couldn't access), but then tractors took over.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an upper midwesterner, that would be an incredibly hard sell. You could whip up support for coal again in heartbeat. Renewables are a great idea in theory, but in reality don't jive well with people in the non-windy, non-sunny areas that also get really damn cold. It's sad to say it but nothing can beat what natural gas and coal can do already. They're cheap and can be used to generate electricity at an extraordin…

If I understand what you're saying, it is that there's little wind, not much sun and it's extremely cold in say, North Dakota, so fossil fuels are cheaper there? Seems to be about a 10 mph avg wind speed [1] and sunny about half the time in daylight hours in winter [2] [1] https://www.ndsu.edu/climate/North%20Dakota%20Data/Yearly%20... [2] http://www.bismarck.climatemps.com/sunlight.php

So how do you handle peak periods but it happens to only be a low wind generation day? Just tell everybody brownouts are in effect? The only reason that happens in enormous cities like LA, SF, and Austin TX is because they have way too many people drawing power. The grid can't be built faster than people can move in.

In terms of electricity generation, this is why batteries are a monumental step towards making green energy feasible. It accounts for these peak periods, capitalizes off of them, then reuses the stored energy when energy generation is low.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As more people move to electric vehicles putting in solar panels will become more feasible. The price of solar is falling so fast that if it is unfeasible today it might not be the same 2-4-6 years from now. 5-6 years ago a lot of people that are installing solar now calculated that it was not worth it for them then but it is now as the prices have fallen 50-60%.

It's impossible to charge electric vehicles on solar panels. You charge at night when the panels don't produce and the panels don't have enough capacity to charge the vehicle completely. So you need huge batteries that will be even more expensive.

Battery prices are also falling 18-20% every 2 years a tesla powerwall costs around $7k now $11k with installation. You dont need to top up your electric vehicle 100Kwh every night looking at avg car use most people would need to top up 7-8Kwh only so the battery cost wont be extremely expensive no need to install 100Kwh battries just 12-15Kwh would be enough.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#535
post #500
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To Europe. In the form of hydrogen, ammonia or other chemical energy storages. Europe will need lots of those. It can very likely not be produced in Europe alone.

I don't see why not. Renewables already means periodic negative power prices for most countries that have them. They will likely use this electricity to make these chemicals closer to where they are needed. This is already happening with aluminum in, e.g. Germany. Even if they don't, 1/3 of the countries in the world are drenched in sunlight. The competition will make margins on these industries pretty pitiful.

Negative power prices are only possible because there are other resources to provide the production baseline. As there exists no system to store power at scale, production must match exactly consumption at any time; so when the wind blows or the sun shines and there is no demand, the generated power is basically worthless.

But this is only possible because renewables represent only a small fraction of all power in most places. They can at peak generate a significant amount of power, but overall most produced TWh come from other sources.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For reference, list of large power plants and their output: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_power_stations The largest solar plant is at about 2000 MW and requires a lot of land. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhadla_Solar_Park The largest wind farm is not being used as efficiently as it could: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gansu_Wind_Farm

Land area used for renewables always sounds like a lot, but it's not that much if you compare it to agriculture. For example, in Germany we use 2.4 million hectares for "energy crops". Just replacing those monocultures with solar panels would cover most of Germany's energy demand and leave some room for biodiversity under the panels.

... provided that you can store a sizeable amount of energy (what do you do when there's no sun for a whole week, which is absolutely not uncommon in Germany?). There isn't any technology up to snuff, unless maybe flooding a very large Alpine valley to build a STEP.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#537
I worked for a solar co in the US for a while, 10yrs ago or so. It was a very interesting time, the hardware (solar panels, inverters) part of our Cost of Goods Sold fell considerably over the course of a few years. I'll suggest a few reasons, as I saw them: 1) Larger-scale, fully-automated manufacturing facilities were coming online. Some mfrs were reputable and high-quality, some not so much. But the abundance of supply caused these vendors to compete for business on price/warranty/etc terms, which drove down our cost to build systems. 2) Lots of developers were also bidding for projects, and utilities forced solar/wind developers to compete to offer lower prices for their power. 3) Government/utility subsidies helped get manufacturing facilities up and running, and made marginal projects more affordable to build/buy. Some incentive programs were well-designed, some were not. The markets that offered the best total return to investors got done first -- the lowest-hanging fruit for solar was in areas with relatively good sun, expensive grid power, and perhaps some extra tax/etc subsidies. Same idea for wind (or any infrastructure or real estate investment, really). 4) Attractive project margins encouraged lots of developers to enter the market, which increased competition and resulted in innovation in business models and processes. 5) Manufacturers scaled up further to satisfy increased demand, resulting in lower hardware costs. 6) Larger investors started angling for a slice of the action. VCs were looking for unicorns, MBA students were looking for jobs. Bankers wanted to make loans and do IPO/M+A work. Big renewable projects/portfolios of >$100M are pretty much the minimum interesting size deal for big project financiers, small deals don't move the needle for them. In fact, if you can put $1B+ to work in a responsible manner, that's even better. Banks are risk averse and renewables were a new/unproven (and thus risky) asset class, and in the early days it was hard to get any sort of financing, at any rate. As more projects demonstrated good ROI, more banks did the work to understand the (hardware/warranty/operational/etc) risks and became willing to lend in this sector. The IRS issued clear guidance on some tax issues which further reduced uncertainty (=risk) for would-be investors. As more financiers entered the market, they competed for deals and the cost of capital for high-quality developers/borrowers fell by several %. 7) Over time, the subsidy programs faded away, but (as intended) during that time hardware costs fell considerably. As developers got more experience, they also got better at reducing ancillary costs (sales, development, legal, etc).

And so it goes, a nice virtuous cycle of competition, some subsidies to help a nascent industry, decent deal economics for investors and early adopters, and manufacturing scale-up.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#538
post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land area used for renewables always sounds like a lot, but it's not that much if you compare it to agriculture. For example, in Germany we use 2.4 million hectares for "energy crops". Just replacing those monocultures with solar panels would cover most of Germany's energy demand and leave some room for biodiversity under the panels.

... provided that you can store a sizeable amount of energy (what do you do when there's no sun for a whole week, which is absolutely not uncommon in Germany?). There isn't any technology up to snuff, unless maybe flooding a very large Alpine valley to build a STEP.

Batteries for overnight storage, Hydrogen or Methane for seasonal variations, various types of heat storage for heating and cooling. And demand shaping of course. It's mostly a matter of cost as far as I know.

Of course you'd want to rely on wind power more than just going all in for solar in Germany. It's not a particularly sunny country.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#539

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

We don't need batteries we just need a massive change in lifestyle including self-managed power cuts and making our houses freezing cold so they're tolerable at night when we can't run the AC. Sounds... not ideal

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#540

What appears to be missing from this discussion is that renewables are not enough: >Our hardest climate problems – the ones that are both large and lack obvious solutions – are agriculture (and deforestation – its major side effect) and industry. Together these are 45% of global carbon emissions. And solutions are scarce. >Agriculture and land use account for 24% of all human emissions. That’s nearly as much as elect…

Most of industry can use renewables just fine.

Chemical ones need carbon that, if energy is plentyful can be captured from the atmosphere.

The agriculture number is mostly methane. Methane is different from CO2 in that it's short lived, so it doesn't keep adding up after a certain amount. Just adding it to the CO2 emmissions us very misleading.

We do need research, but renewables are a key part for solving those problems too.

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