Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#531

Post by lazyjones » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:53 AM UTC

sytelus wrote: post #295

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #81

Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…

I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. Some analysts are saying random things like impact of tax credit and competition coming in to EV market. I still don't see anything close to Tesla offering in EV space, at least in US. They really need to focus on offering EV at $18K price point wit…

There's also a general slump in car sales in Tesla's main M3 markets lately:

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-...

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#532

Post by humbleMouse » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:54 AM UTC

dannyw wrote: post #451

natch wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like animal fries at In-n-Out, the $35k is not shown on the website. You have to call and ask for it specifically. Or if you prefer you can order the $39.5k one and call up service and get them to change the settings, and then they'll send you a refund of $4,500. Does this all sound strange? Sure, but I guess they have their reasons for doing it, which seem to be mainly to keep the menu simple and steer people toward…

Everything extra that you get with $39.5k is software unlocks (autopilot, navigation, heated seats software). So the extra $4.5k is pure margin.

So to clarify, you dont get heated seats unless you pay 4.5k for a software upgrade?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#533

Post by olau » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:55 AM UTC

ckastner wrote: post #410

jillesvangurp wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is a technology demo, not a functioning operation that spits out self driving cars by the tens of thousands per quarter. They are many years away from having that. That's fine if they pull it off; it's the way big technology startups are funded. Alphabet is playing the long game here. However, Tesla is talking about making the tens of thousands cars they are shipping per quarter right now autonomous. We'll see…

> Waymo is a technology demo, not a functioning operation that spits out self driving cars by the tens of thousands per quarter. Waymo last year ordered 20.000 cars from Jaguar Land Rover, then 62.000 cars from Fiat Chrysler, with deliveries apparently starting in 2019 [1]. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/business/waymo-chrysler-m...

Actually they didn't - they entered into an agreement that would allow them, over time, to order the number of cars you mention.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#534

Post by _Codemonkeyism » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:56 AM UTC

radium3d wrote: post #252

Seasonal 4th to 1st quarter may have been a loss but these numbers stand out to me as being a bit more important. Cars sold: Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 Revenue Q1 2019: $4.5 billion Q1 2018: $3.4 billion Q1 2017: $2.7 billion Q1 2016: $1.6 billion Q1 2015: $1.1 billion Q1 2014: $713 million Q1 2013: $562 million Q1 2012: $30…

"Q1 2019: 63,000"

I'm curious, sold or Model3 from the waiting list delivered?

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#535

Post by elijahlito » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:57 AM UTC

ckastner wrote: post #361

Well, I guess that explains the Autonomy Day [1] event from just two days ago where they presented themselves as the Pack Leader, when everyone else knows it's Waymo (by far). Quoting user RivieraKid [2]: Take a moment and think about why are they doing this event now. Elon is setting a stage for a capital raise, he's pitching the autonomy narrative after the Model 3 cash cow narrative failed. They're trying to convi…

Tesla already tried to build autonomous car factories and admitted a mistake. Unclear why they are so sure they can build autonomous cars - a task seemingly much more complex than car manufacturing robots?

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#536

Post by 6d6b73 » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 11:58 AM UTC

cjhopman wrote: post #402

cjhopman wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also: "Not by a lot, but I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."

Note that that quote was already almost 1 month into the Q1 where they lost nearly $1 billion.

Paying debt is not loss. They never had that money they just borrowed it

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#537

Post by loceng » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:00 PM UTC

They are making all of the right moves. Assuming the Tesla chip is as they say it is - which is more believable because of their presentation and because of the lead engineer they brought on for it, and if we believe their expected improvements during the next chip version - along with the fleet of robotaxis and the Tesla Network taking 30-40% revenue share will on its own bankroll whatever issues they may have; I can't wait to see what happens to Uber, Lyft, and so on. I'm also concerned about potential vandalization (or worse attacks on users) who use these self-driving vehicle services by those who become disenfranchised, are struggling to survive, who currently try to support their living as taxi or Uber/Lyft drivers; what Andrew Yang is working towards solving with UBI for the losses coming from automation.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#538

Post by _fizz_buzz_ » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:04 PM UTC

kec wrote: post #146

kylec wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BMW doesn't need to pay top dollar for a prestigious brand, they already have one. Tesla will be bought out by the likes of Geely or Tata who don't have strong brands of their own, but have already been going around and scooping up smaller car brands like Volvo and Jaguar.

They have history of doing so though: They own both Mini and Rolls-Royce now.

Not really. They merged with Rover and bought Rolls-Royce in the 90s. At the time the BMW management wanted to expand. Mini is a holdover from the Rover merger. This merger is largely seen as a failure and BMW divested from all Rover brands (except Mini). For more than 20 years BMW has not expanded.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#539

Post by iamgopal » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:04 PM UTC

golfer wrote: post #108

warent wrote: post #104

If Tesla runs out of money, does it just mean they will be acquired by another car company, or something else?

I think it's unlikely they'll be acquired. Tesla has about $9B in debt, had never been profitable on an annual basis, and most other automakers are plowing forward with their own EVs. I don't see much upside in acquiring Tesla. I expect chapter 7 bankruptcy (liquidation), or chapter 11 if Elon can pull the ripcord soon to have some money available to weather the restructuring.

WhatsApp was sold for 20 billions and redhat for 32 billions. I think apple could easily buy it when time comes.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#540

Post by SECProto » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 12:05 PM UTC

michaelt wrote: post #458

sliken wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard c…

even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model S (100 kwh). I suspect that's because Tesla have had batteries on the road for much longer than Audi, meaning they've got better data to base the battery-life-vs-discharge-depth trade-off on. After all, everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get…

> everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get hard data on that than having EVs on the market for 10 years.

Jeff Dahn, now working with Tesla (exclusively I think) does not agree, and has a fantastic lecture explaining some stuff about lithium ion degradation (specifically, how normal accelerated age testing doesn't work, but they have a different method which lines up very well with long term cell aging)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxP0Cu00sZs