Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#451

Post by dannyw » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:00 AM UTC

natch wrote: post #372

TaylorAlexander wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was surprised by your claim so I checked... the Tesla website currently allows me to configure a Model 3 that is $39,500 before discounts for estimated delivery in two weeks. Not $35k but far less than $48k too.

Like animal fries at In-n-Out, the $35k is not shown on the website. You have to call and ask for it specifically. Or if you prefer you can order the $39.5k one and call up service and get them to change the settings, and then they'll send you a refund of $4,500. Does this all sound strange? Sure, but I guess they have their reasons for doing it, which seem to be mainly to keep the menu simple and steer people toward…

Everything extra that you get with $39.5k is software unlocks (autopilot, navigation, heated seats software).

So the extra $4.5k is pure margin.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#452

Post by dannyw » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:02 AM UTC

shimms wrote: post #360

_pmf_ wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Or is it because demand is dying? The demand was for something that they no longer sell.

Two things: The demand for the semi-premium model outweighed the standard by 6 to 1, so no, the demand is right where the new obvious entry model is. It is still technically available, but not in any obvious way (if you weren’t to already know, it’d be fair enough to assume it wasn’t available anymore).

That’s because they called literally every SR purchaser and hard sold them to get SR+; and said SR was many months away from delivery.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#453

Post by eafkuor » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:04 AM UTC

newnewpdro wrote: post #346

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair. But it's hard for me to imagine a future in which Tesla grows at a better rate than SpaceX.

What are you smoking? The market for automobiles is basically the entire world's adult population. Space rockets not so much.

You're not entirely wrong, but entire world? I'm not sure. The _vast_ majority of people in the planet can't afford to spend even 10kUSD on a car.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#454

Post by dannyw » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:04 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #294

taneq wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They may just be taking a calmer view of EV demand rather than betting the farm at every turn like Tesla. One or two quarters of running at capacity on a brand new factory isn't enough reason to massively upgrade your production capacity, if you think it's just a hump and that demand will settle down again. The Model 3 may be "affordable" compared with the Model S / X, but US$35k is still luxury car territory.

Agreed. Seems like Tesla may have misjudged the model 3 demand and should have increased the number of production lines more slowly. I think in Fremont factory has 6 lines. One for X, one for S, and 4 for the model 3. Seems like they should just move one or two of the lines from model 3 to the model Y, which shares 75% of the same parts instead of committing to building several new lines in Reno and China. While the…

People expected $35k before incentives. That means an out of pocket cost of approx $28k.

People did not expect $36k. $28k vs $36k is HUGE.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#455

Post by chopin » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:08 AM UTC

jwr wrote: post #56

mamon wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are definitely living in different universes. ICEs do not get any subsidies, quite the opposite: in many countries, e.g. the whole EU gas is so heavily taxed that more than half of the retail price is tax. Also, Tesla is an easy target to make fun of, because of its narcistic, arrogant CEO that seems to think that he can outsmart everyone, when in fact his business is a total mess.

Of course ICEs get subsidies. The subsidy is in the form of a carbon tax that we do not collect, even though we should. Every ICE produces emissions which will soon make most of our planet uninhabitable. There should be a carbon tax, so that we can offset this destruction: by building nuclear plants, or figuring out how to re-capture the carbon emitted into the atmosphere. And yet we do not collect that tax, hence he…

EVs don't pay carbon taxes either (which they should).

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#456

Post by martinald » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:08 AM UTC

claytoneast wrote: post #86

martinald wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think people are underestimating how dire the financials are. I think the cars are pretty cool (though way too much autopilot hype) and it's awesome that EVs have came so far so quickly. If Tesla continues burning cash like this quarter, it will basically be out of money in Q2, yet they are not raising capital which suggests there is some major problem. I think Tesla has had an awful lot of financial near miss…

If they have 2.2B in the bank, lost 700 mil this quarter, expect to lose significantly less in the next quarter, how are they out of money? Even if they lost 500mil next quarter, they'd still have another 3 quarters of that left. That's not "basically out of money", in my mind.

Because around 1billion of that 2.2 is reserved and doesn't really count as cash (customer deposits etc). So probably leaves around 1.2bn left at bank.

They are also spending next to nothing on capex which is going to be tough to sustain long term. If their capex was back towards their guidance for the year they would be closer to a billion loss this quarter.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#457

Post by oblio » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:10 AM UTC

tomp wrote: post #393

canada_dry wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Musk specifically shot it down on hubris This, of course, will ultimately catch up with Musk, just like it did for Jobs. Elon success relies on the same 'distortion reality' shield that Jobs relied on. It forces his staff to keep trying to achieve his practically impossible demands. Continued success requires that it keep working over and over while not burning out critical staff and burning through your investor's…

How did it catch up with Jobs? Apple still makes the best phones and the most cash 5 years after his death. Like, Jobs is still so far ahead, no one even tries to catch up.

Jobs was kicked out from his own company after a rebellion he started. His own people decided to kick him out after they heard his arguments and the arguments of the person he wanted to oust. He had to wallow away at Next for more than a decade before he came back.

1997 Jobs was a way more humble and realistic version than 1984 Jobs. And that probably made him a better manager and CEO.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#458

Post by michaelt » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:14 AM UTC

sliken wrote: post #365

Waterluvian wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your last sentence is what interests me the most. How many people will be out $1000 or $2500 if Tesla goes under? I'm assuming deposits are about as low a priority as you can get for recovering money in a bankruptcy?

I suspect it would be a total loss. But rationally it seems like a really unlikely thing to happen. Tesla just made a $920 million payment in March, they have a 20% gross margin, and have $2.2B cash on hand. Sure they may have to slow their growth, or take out another loan, but Tesla is hardly at the brink of bankruptcy. There are some serious competitors targeting the model S and X coming, although none I've heard c…

  even those with similar size battery (like the 95kwh
  audi etron) only manage 56% of the range of the model
  S (100 kwh).

I suspect that's because Tesla have had batteries on the road for much longer than Audi, meaning they've got better data to base the battery-life-vs-discharge-depth trade-off on.

After all, everyone's worried about how degraded their batteries will be after 10 years, and there's no better way to get hard data on that than having EVs on the market for 10 years.

  But the model 3/Y competition in the $40k to $60k
  range is looking significantly more sparse

There's the Hyundai Kona Electric, with 258 miles for $37k-$45k. But I agree one car isn't a lot of competition :)

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#459

Post by skgoa » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:17 AM UTC

m3kw9 wrote: post #313

sandworm101 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few more years of this amd they may be bought out by the likes of BMW. The tesla brand is worth something, even if on the hood of a german car.

Elon would sell to Apple, and not these old school car manufacturers that has their tails covering their behinds

Elon literally tried to sell Tesla to the Saudis.

Re: Tesla Posts Big Quarterly Loss as Its Electric-Car Sales Lag

#460

Post by tonyedgecombe » Thu, Apr 25, 2019, 9:19 AM UTC

sytelus wrote: post #295

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #81

Tesla's 1.5B reduction of cash on hand was largely due to the 920M convertible bond payment — but that only happened because TSLA didn't perform to the level necessary for conversion (~$360 IIRC). I wonder what changes in terms this'll warrant for future capital raises. Then they mention that they missed a lot of revenue due to missing half their shipments overseas, and onto Q2 (But also expecting a loss in Q2). Sale…

I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. Some analysts are saying random things like impact of tax credit and competition coming in to EV market. I still don't see anything close to Tesla offering in EV space, at least in US. They really need to focus on offering EV at $18K price point wit…

I suspect we are still quite a few years away from an $18K EV, maybe even a decade.

I wonder if the industry might have been better off focusing on plugin hybrids to start with, you can get most of the benefits whilst battery production ramps up and costs fall.