The Uber Bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: The Uber Bubble

#521

Post by mbesto » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

chrischen wrote: post #508

ketanip wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Uber isn't a startup anymore. It's a publicly traded company. THIS

I don’t get it. Even publicly traded companies try to zero out end of year profits via reinvestment and salary bonuses. If you did not then you accumulate unused cash which if you decide to pay out to employees later gets double taxed. But in any case Uber’s industries are still highly competitive (ride sharing and food delivery), so there are plenty of ways for them to reinvest profits rather than accumulate a war c…

> If you did not then you accumulate unused cash which if you decide to pay out to employees later gets double taxed.

This is precisely why you look at a Cash Flow statement.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#522

Post by acchow » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 5:51 PM UTC

LudwigNagasena wrote: post #372

acchow wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are 100% correct. This is the magic There are people who want to make a positive return on their time + vehicle depreciation. But they are on the open market competing against people who are in a cash crunch and happy to have a net negative return on the same, as long as it temporarily allows them to convert depreciation into cash. This is why drivers will always lose in the long term. They are racing against eac…

Perhaps the society just should make it easier for the destitute to find appropriate means to support themselves? People act as if the fact that some people who are bored on a Saturday night are ready to give a cheap ride is a problem. It seems like it an absolute good and totally not a problem and should not be “fixed”.

I’m not at all saying bored people should not be allowed to drive for Uber for fun.

I’m saying the marketing to drivers needs to change. Uber pretend it’s some great paying gig and markets hard like this. It deceives people who have no idea how to do depreciation calculations

Re: The Uber Bubble

#523

Post by telchior » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 7:01 PM UTC

sebastos wrote: post #500

westcort wrote: post #35

My key takeaways: 1. Uber is actually a higher cost/less efficient producer of urban car services than the taxi companies it has driven out of business 2. Individual Uber drivers with limited capital cannot acquire, finance, maintain and insure vehicles more economically than Yellow Cab 3. Expenses other than drivers, vehicles, and fuel account for 15 percent of traditional taxi costs but Uber charges drivers 25-30 p…

I have absolutely no vested interest in defending Uber, but every time one of these threads pops up I feel compelled to throw cold water on it because this website is so damn obsessed with predicting Uber's doom. I have comments that are 6 years old saying "no, uber is not dying", with a thread full of angry pitchforks sure I am wrong. Nobody cares if Uber as a whole is more "efficient" as measured by some global mea…

Excellent commentary on all the other reasons Uber succeeded. One other comment I'd have is that taxi services are spectacular in some places. Get a black cab in London or Tokyo and you're overwhelmingly likely to experience a better ride than Uber can offer. But the list of similar cities is extremely short; it just happens that a lot of these doomsayers live in them.

One also doubts that the guy writing this article ever needed to take a cab anywhere.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#524

Post by noduerme » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 7:17 PM UTC

>> Uber was not pursuing more liberal entry and pricing rules but working to effectively nullify any form of governmental oversight. This meant eliminating the public’s right to establish standards for market competition, safety, insurance, driver licensing, vehicle maintenance, or obligations to provide services to all people and neighborhoods in a city.

Former cab driver here. I was astonished and disgusted by exactly this set of issues when Uber emerged. Taxi drivers had to take tests, undergo frequent safety checks, random stops. We had to take calls in all neighborhoods while on shift. And driving was a full time job. There was no surge pricing. Meanwhile, when Uber came out, I remember everyone in the general public hating on taxis as being too expensive, or dirty or old fashioned or something. People didn't understand what they were trading away, or that they were only temporarily getting something for nothing.

Pre-Uber, (and pre smart phone) I had the idea of building an SMS based service that would distribute pickup requests to drivers who paid a small fee for it. The trouble was, that would have been illegal, because it ran afoul of decades of regulation around how calls were fairly dispatched and who could dispatch them. Uber just came and broke all the laws for consumer protection and got away with it, through a combination of threats and bribery of local officials.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#525

Post by ceeplusplus » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 7:38 PM UTC

nullc wrote: post #480

ceeplusplus wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because depreciation is a paper loss. If you're an average person you're not selling your car for a new one for at least 7-8 years after you buy it. By that time it's worth very little of its original cost anyways. The only actual cost incurred by the driver is repairs and maintenance, which is nowhere near the cost of depreciation on the car. In effect, the depreciation schedule changes, but on the time scale…

Mileage driven depreciation is a real loss until the car is fairly old: More miles directly reduces the price you can get selling the used car. Uber won't accept drivers driving old beaters where that curve has flatted out.

According to KBB a 2010 Toyota Prius (just selected as an example) only has a price estimate differential of $3000 between 100k miles and 400k miles. Even if you bump that up to 5k for a newer car, it's still insubstantial compared to the overall depreciation on the car from its new value of ~$25k to a 8-year used value of 3-6k. That 20k extra depreciation is not recognized by individuals but is by corporate owners.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#526

Post by BeefySwain » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 7:44 PM UTC

mikegioia wrote: post #438

thebigman433 wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just ordered a Lyft the other day and was talking to the driver on the way to the airport, he said a common route he drives is from Bozeman (MT) to Big Sky (for the ski tourists), the price is over 150$ on Lyft/Uber, and he ends up getting about 60-70$ from it max. This type of cut, plus the massive false advertising that Uber/Lyft does via their apps in smaller towns, like telling you that your ride will be booked…

> like telling you that your ride will be booked soon when there are literally no drivers available I got burned on this using Lyft to get the airport early in the morning. Scheduled the night before to pick up at 5am the next morning. No one was actually scheduled, and it was just searching endlessly for a driver in the area but there were none! No car services open, I had to call my mother and ask her to take us! I…

Same. The language they use for that feature (on both apps) is extremely misleading, if not just straight up false. They clearly want you to believe that you are guaranteed a ride when you schedule ahead.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#527

Post by bradgranath » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 7:57 PM UTC

sebastos wrote: post #500

westcort wrote: post #35

My key takeaways: 1. Uber is actually a higher cost/less efficient producer of urban car services than the taxi companies it has driven out of business 2. Individual Uber drivers with limited capital cannot acquire, finance, maintain and insure vehicles more economically than Yellow Cab 3. Expenses other than drivers, vehicles, and fuel account for 15 percent of traditional taxi costs but Uber charges drivers 25-30 p…

I have absolutely no vested interest in defending Uber, but every time one of these threads pops up I feel compelled to throw cold water on it because this website is so damn obsessed with predicting Uber's doom. I have comments that are 6 years old saying "no, uber is not dying", with a thread full of angry pitchforks sure I am wrong. Nobody cares if Uber as a whole is more "efficient" as measured by some global mea…

They're an illegal taxi company. The rides are NOT better. What solutions?

Re: The Uber Bubble

#528

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 8:08 PM UTC

bradgranath wrote: post #527

sebastos wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have absolutely no vested interest in defending Uber, but every time one of these threads pops up I feel compelled to throw cold water on it because this website is so damn obsessed with predicting Uber's doom. I have comments that are 6 years old saying "no, uber is not dying", with a thread full of angry pitchforks sure I am wrong. Nobody cares if Uber as a whole is more "efficient" as measured by some global mea…

They're an illegal taxi company. The rides are NOT better. What solutions?

The person you're responding to provided reasons for their assertions.

> They're an illegal taxi company.

Why do you think that?

> The rides are NOT better.

Why do you think that?

Re: The Uber Bubble

#529

Post by prmoustache » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 8:09 PM UTC

projektfu wrote: post #420

prmoustache wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently in Mexico it used to be the case 5years ago but nowadays you can't rely on Uber either anymore if you are a woman and you don't want to just be a dead raped corpse the next morning. Source: mexican gf and her family still living there. Not sure if the issue comes from Uber not giving out drivers info, drivers blaming someone borrowed their car but not disclosing identity of supposed borrower or police not…

"In Mexico" is really too broad to say what to expect. Cancun, Tijuana, CDMX, and Queretaro, as examples, are going to be vastly different experiences.

Well Cancun is not mx anymore. GF is from Queretaro, which is somewhat considered a safe place. She would not take an Uber alone anymore as she used to do.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#530

Post by sebastos » Mon, Apr 18, 2022, 8:21 PM UTC

bradgranath wrote: post #527

sebastos wrote: post #500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have absolutely no vested interest in defending Uber, but every time one of these threads pops up I feel compelled to throw cold water on it because this website is so damn obsessed with predicting Uber's doom. I have comments that are 6 years old saying "no, uber is not dying", with a thread full of angry pitchforks sure I am wrong. Nobody cares if Uber as a whole is more "efficient" as measured by some global mea…

They're an illegal taxi company. The rides are NOT better. What solutions?

I've just outlined for you a long list of ways in which getting an Uber is superior to hailing a cab. Some of those differences are realized by simply having an app that goes along with the service. Some of them are realized by having a ride-share business model rather than a medallion system with a fleet. Taken collectively, it's a cohesive solution to the problem of "I want to get a ride to Baker St. that doesn't suck". Here are some examples:

- Waiting out in the cold --> Reserve your drive from inside, monitor your driver's position, only step out when they're arriving.

- Driver resents your trip destination --> You declare this ahead of time, and it is accepted by the driver ahead of time. Also, driver rating system discourages people from being rude / guilting you for having a place to go

- Fare was surprisingly high --> You get a quote ahead of time.

- "Credit card machine isn't working" --> Your credit card is already entered in the app, so you don't even have to worry about it. It's charged automatically.

- Car is kind of gross / smells weird --> People use their own, more modern, nicely appointed cars. Drivers have good incentives to take care of the car. Rating system encourages good behavior on both sides (throwing up in an Uber hurts your rating a lot).

On the other side of the coin, Uber's system is solving problems for somebody who wants to earn some cash on the side:

- Reputation system allows you to stand out from the crowd with good service

- No obligations to be on shift - work for as long as you want to. Compatible with having other jobs.

- No need to invest your life savings on a medallion whose only value is to make you one of a sea of undifferentiated, unaccountable yellow cabs

- Don't need to patrol to "find" the riders, so lower downtime

It is a better system. Declaring that it's "NOT" without any backup will not change that. And if you come back saying "so what, local cab services have an app that does all the same stuff now" (now that Uber forced them to to be competitive, that is), then may God have mercy on your soul.