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The Uber Bubble

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Re: The Uber Bubble

#471

Post by nullc »

mikeryan wrote: post #259
jmyeet wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your points but let me give you some counterpoints: 1. Taxi services are balkanized; 2. Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service; 3. Uber made the payment process seamless and I cannot overstate how important this is as a user. I hate dealing with NYC yellow…

Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service First this is just inherently wrong. You’ve been able to call and schedule a cab, even in the burbs, since before the internet was a thing. Second there’s now services like Curb (in NYC) or Flywheel which allow you to use an Uber/Lyft style…

> You’ve been able to call and schedule a cab

In some places, e.g. SF, scheduled cabs mostly didn't show (at least pre-uber). They'd send a driver, but the driver would just pick up the first person they found on the street-- A fare in the seat is better than a fare on the street.

I didn't have that experience in the DC area or NYC, so I know it wasn't universal... but in some places uber really was a massive upgrade in terms of transport reliability even though uber drivers do cancel at a disappointingly high rate too.

[DC had it's own issues-- I never had many problems with them beyond them being thoroughly ignorant about the local roads an geography, but my partner frequently got sexist insults from the driver, refusals to take her directions, etc.]

Re: The Uber Bubble

#472

Post by micromacrofoot »

chrischen wrote: post #302
micromacrofoot wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

uber let the cat out of the bag… this model might not exist forever, but maybe it’ll last long enough for someone else to capitalize on its ghost

Uber’s model is basically the same as the cab/taxi model, but likely much more efficient due to software. That business model (hiring private drivers for point to point public transit) has been profitably working for over a century now. Also keep in mind Taxis, unlike buses and trains, are usually not even subsidized, which lends even more credence to the business model.

"basically the same" yet uber did have a transformative effect, in some countries taxi systems were very hostile and disorganized, and uber has raised the standard significantly... they've created a certain expectation

Re: The Uber Bubble

#473

Post by marssaxman »

Ekaros wrote: post #368
xapata wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some countries, taxis are so often criminal that tourists are warned to avoid them. In some less extreme places, drivers simply never use the meter and the passengers must negotiate every ride. Uber and its competitors have been wonderful for hailing rides in these places.

And why shouldn't Uber be forced to be a platform where the drivers can negotiate price with riders? Seems rather bad that Uber is one dictating the pricing and their cut...

I don't want to put myself at the mercy of some asshole who is trying to dicker with me over the price of a ride. I do not want to argue about the price at all; I certainly do not want to argue about it with the person who is shortly going to drive me around. Better for them to direct whatever feelings of greed or disappointment they may have toward the operator of the service than toward me.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#474

Post by Nursie »

matwood wrote: post #400
jmyeet wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with your points but let me give you some counterpoints: 1. Taxi services are balkanized; 2. Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service; 3. Uber made the payment process seamless and I cannot overstate how important this is as a user. I hate dealing with NYC yellow…

> Taxis died because it's a horrible user experience And in small cities/towns, getting a taxi was nearly impossible a lot of the times. And if you did get one, you had to have cash. In my 20s I had the personal phone numbers of a couple who ran a car service. I would only ride with them after another taxi home (probably unlicensed) where the driver was drinking smh. I wonder how many DUIs have been avoided since Ube…

> And in small cities/towns, getting a taxi was nearly impossible a lot of the times

And in some towns and cities it's now becoming difficult to get an uber, as there are fewer drivers around than there were. And they conveniently drove the local cab firms out of business so you're just generally SoL

Re: The Uber Bubble

#475

Post by ketanip »

mbesto wrote: post #469
chrischen wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of movie productions infamously do not have positive cash flow. They deduct profits by creating artificial expenses charged by other companies providing services. If they did have profits they’d get double taxed (once on the company’s profits and then again in payroll taxes if they decide to disburse profits to employees). They’d also have to pay out royalties on profits in some cases. It’s usually pointless to…

> A lot of movie productions infamously do not have positive cash flow. This is a nuance of an accounting trick used specifically in Hollywood and isn't relevant to this discussion whatsoever. > It’s usually pointless to look at reported profits from growth oriented startups Uber isn't a startup anymore. It's a publicly traded company. > It’s much better to look at unit economics. It's not. Unit economics are commonl…

> Uber isn't a startup anymore. It's a publicly traded company.

THIS

Re: The Uber Bubble

#476

Post by Nursie »

bradleyjg wrote: post #425
blackhaz wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very common in Prague. Uber in Prague is a disaster. About 5% of my rides are probably ending up with having to pay a cancellation fee for a driver who never showed up. Contacting support to resolve this is pain indeed. Most of the Uber rides in Prague are owned by limited liability companies (s r.o.). I guess there's some kind of an alliance between Uber and those local companies. Another 5-10% or so of my Ub…

The drivers have definitely learned how to game the system in some cases. I was once at LAX airport and the local drivers had somehow figured out how to create a surge fare that only kicked in after you matched with a driver. The app would offer you the higher price and if you turned it down you’d find that there were no cars available. If you canceled and tried again the lower fare would once again show.

This is now common here in Perth, Western Australia. The drivers appear to have figured out that cancelling repeatedly, if they all do it, can create a 'surge' where there was none before.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#477

Post by [deleted] »

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #462
Semaphor wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> in europe there are many taxi companies that have started to do uber app features and prepayment and all the jazz that make uber so great. Yeah, Uber never got a foothold in Germany, but they brought us apps and card payment. Before that, it was cash only. That said, cabs (both, actual taxis and rentable cars with drivers [0]) also seem to be far better here. The cab companies own the cars, not drivers, they are mo…

> Yeah, Uber never got a foothold in Germany, but they brought us apps and card payment. Germany also worked hard to cripple Uber. Even its per-existing rules are hostile towards much of the innovation Uber brought to market. One particularly egregious example is forcing each Uber to "return to garage" between each trip, even if another customer is on its path and requesting a ride. This makes the service considerabl…

[deleted]

Re: The Uber Bubble

#478

Post by Nursie »

jmharvey wrote: post #261
mikeryan wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many tax services don't allow you to order a taxi ahead of time. You have to flag one down (eg NYC). For ordering a car, you need to otherwise deal with an (expensive) car service First this is just inherently wrong. You’ve been able to call and schedule a cab, even in the burbs, since before the internet was a thing. Second there’s now services like Curb (in NYC) or Flywheel which allow you to use an Uber/Lyft style…

> First this is just inherently wrong. You’ve been able to call and schedule a cab, even in the burbs, since before the internet was a thing. And maybe the driver would show up on time, or maybe they'd see a street hail en route to picking you up and decide to make you wait an extra 40 minutes. Uber drivers cancel, too, of course, but "automatically fall back to a different driver after a cancellation" is a meaningfu…

> is a meaningfully different experience.

You know what's a meaningfully different experience? A cab company scheduling a car for you at a specific time, rather that an app starting to look for a car for you a few minutes ahead of time, and coming up with something late or inadequate, something I repeatedly experienced with Uber.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#479

Post by lhorie »

Ekaros wrote: post #391
lhorie wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One source is just an acquaintance of mine. A couple of others are people on youtube. Mind you, the caveat is these people worked 50+ hours per week. If you want something that looks less anecdotal, google "uber salary". Glassdoor lists a range from 18k-93k/yr.

Is that the take home after all cost, maintenance, depreciation and so on?

It's gross income, so no. For my acquaintance it was still better net income than the job he had been laid off from (we're talking a difference of more than 2x), the trade-off is that the income boost comes from opting into putting long hours. He was able to use the extra income to pay off some debt, FWIW.

If you're interested, some of the YouTube videos go into the earnings breakdown and take home amount after setting aside a maintenance fund.

Re: The Uber Bubble

#480

Post by nullc »

ceeplusplus wrote: post #156
acchow wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are 100% correct. This is the magic There are people who want to make a positive return on their time + vehicle depreciation. But they are on the open market competing against people who are in a cash crunch and happy to have a net negative return on the same, as long as it temporarily allows them to convert depreciation into cash. This is why drivers will always lose in the long term. They are racing against eac…

That's because depreciation is a paper loss. If you're an average person you're not selling your car for a new one for at least 7-8 years after you buy it. By that time it's worth very little of its original cost anyways. The only actual cost incurred by the driver is repairs and maintenance, which is nowhere near the cost of depreciation on the car. In effect, the depreciation schedule changes, but on the time scale…

Mileage driven depreciation is a real loss until the car is fairly old: More miles directly reduces the price you can get selling the used car. Uber won't accept drivers driving old beaters where that curve has flatted out.
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