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It's Not Just Apple vs Android

andycroll.com

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Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#51

Post by Tyrannosaurs »

TheAnimus wrote: post #41

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

Actually if you look at the market share figures, they're both expanding their market share without having to really go for each other due to the growth in smartphone usage (that is them picking up users from feature phones or new phone users) and those migrating away from BlackBerry, Windows Mobile and so on (between Samsung and Apple they're currently squeezing everyone else out of the market).

As things stand globally both are growing share of market, revenue, activations and total installed user base.

In terms of trend however there are a few interesting things happening. Over the past couple of months Android actually dropped overall US market share for the first time since if started taking off. In absolute terms it still grew, but less than the market as a whole.

The market got bearish on Apple sometime last year. What's really interesting though is it was about the same time that, in the US at least, the iPhone started growing faster than Android, a trend that has not only continued since then but has actually been increasing: http://twitter.yfrog.com/oe7etlp

The TL;DR version: Most investment funds, run by the same organisations who employ / fund / listen to these analysts, under perform the market. While what they say is interesting, the fact they don't get something might not be that big a deal.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#52

Post by [deleted] »

andycroll wrote: post #46
TheAnimus wrote: post #41

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

I'm not going to say he isn't pro-Apple, but he does at least attempt to find the nuance in the story. I was merely saying I don't dismiss him out of hand as some do. Regarding the trend, I concur and I somewhat covered the excellence of most of the handsets now in the market certainly means a much more competitive marketplace. I don't necessarily think Apple have stopped growing (their last quarter would seem to ref…

[deleted]

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#53

Post by [deleted] »

MrScruff wrote: post #48
josh2600 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the ecosystem that Apple sells, not the hardware. People buy Apple because they know the handset will be supported for a specific period of time, that every developer wants to sell on iOS and works hard to be there, and that they can walk into an Apple store and get support any day they want. For the hacker, most of these things are irrelevant, but for Joe-Schmo who wants to put minimal effort forward when mana…

True, and that peace of mind can be appealing to hackers as well. We only have so many hours in the day after all.

[deleted]

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#54

Post by TheAnimus »

bjustin wrote: post #45
TheAnimus wrote: post #41

What he and the Gruber peice he references (did he seriously say Gruber isn't an Apple Cheerleader?!) fail to mention is trend. The trend is your friend , one of the first things anyone who's suffered a trader learns. It's not a case of how high or low something is, but where it is going to be relative to it's current place. Press and Markets get this (the former to a lesser extent true) but the fear is that Apple ha…

The trend is that iOS's market share is growing, albeit not as fast as Android's has been. As an aside, if you want a smartphone that is not humongous, your options are: 1) A low- to mid-range Android device, or 2) Any iPhone When was the last time a high-end Android or Windows Phone device was released with a 4" or smaller screen?

When it comes to growth, it depends on how you look at it, as much as I've said trend, the question is which trend measure. That is to say, which derivative of the underlying performance indicator. Whilst they are still growing, the rate of growth has slowed, this is at a time everyone is jumping up and down to sell more to the BRICs, most importantly China. A Vietnamese friend of mine has a really bloody good Andriod device, I forget the brand name, good specs, good construction (argably more robust than iPhone 4 lets put glass with glass) and it cost penuts, about $100 including sales taxes.

So this is why I'd say, it depends on the idea of a high end device. There are plenty of bloody good phones at 4" and below, but many suffer from cameras that are poor, not expandable memory etc.

In fact I'd dare as far to say as someone who doesn't want a good camera, can't go wrong with the Nokia 620 at £140, sim free, no contract in the UK.

However Nokia should be aware bottom pickers get sticky fingers as they say.

What I do think has changed, from a UK mobile phone buyers perspective is market differentiation. In 2008 there was huge competition in the £100-200 range, but not much above. Each firm had a 'flagship' but little effort really went it to it, they didn't expect to sell many. the iPhone 1, which I stand by saying was a turd with a web-browser (buggy, short battery, no games, and ultimately no GPS - as a Londoner cardinal sin) came in at £1200 tco minimum. This was a massive game changer. If you had the cash, or didn't because it was on credit via a contract, there was nothing else near it. It's not just a choice between a Lambo and Ford, its a Lambo or a bicycle.

Within about 2 years the others jumped to arrange themselves, and here 5 years on samsung has shown you can have a diverse range, something that can max out each persons budget, but still sell something to the person that only has £100.

Apple isn't doing that fast enough, the iPad mini is a good example of them adapting to the competition, but sitting in with a one offering, at one price point, which doesn't have: The Best Camera or The Best Games or The Best Web Browser or The Best Design, isn't going to work. Sure some people are bought in, trapped on the ecosystem, but people fear that they are loosing product share to competitors. This year will be a tell. I think its unlikely Apple will be 450 come year end, much more likely 600, if they crack this mid end or 350 if they don't. imho.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#55

Post by MrScruff »

[deleted] wrote: post #53
MrScruff wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, and that peace of mind can be appealing to hackers as well. We only have so many hours in the day after all.

[deleted]

Exactly. When I was 20 I'd happily spend my weekend building PCs or compiling Linux kernels. In general, my time/money ratio was skewed heavily towards time.

Now I'm in my 30s and have a demanding career it's very much the other way. Spare time is rare and incredibly precious.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#56

Post by wuest »

CaptainZapp wrote: post #39
wuest wrote: post #6

> Nokia (with Microsoft) make beautiful hardware and Windows Phone is lush, but for some reason is not getting the market love its quality deserves. Two points here: First, it pains me to see MS lumped with Nokia. I'll be clinging to my N9 for a very long time yet (and probably only move on when Ubuntu or Firefox phones are compelling). I miss Maemo/MeeGo. Second, the reason which MS doesn't get the love which its qu…

First, it pains me to see MS lumped with Nokia. I'll be clinging to my N9 for a very long time yet (and probably only move on when Ubuntu or Firefox phones are compelling). I miss Maemo/MeeGo. Same here: I'm still clinging to my 2 year old N900, which I still consider a great phone. When I bought it I knew that the patform is in a dead end, but I got it anyway and never regretted it. In fact I still have a brand new…

I love my N900! It's on my shelf as a backup phone. Ours aren't all that uncommon in terms of Maemo users' stories, as I understand it.

Re: It's Not Just Apple vs Android

#57

Post by youngerdryas »

gonvaled wrote: post #37
jolohaga wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the web is so wide open and been available for over 20 years to the public, I fail to see how Apple is responsible for this lock-in trend. Rather Apple has aptly uncovered an untapped desire among the public, which the web failed to provide. Yes, you can say Apple started it, so they're responsible. But this desire was ready for the pickin's. I don't fault Apple for picking it up. It must have been obvious to t…

Yes, but a 30% cut gives them all incentive in the world to further destroy the open marketplace (html). I do not have evidence that it is happening - but this must be an Apple goal. Simply because of how they are profiting from this arrangement. Or, to put it another way: the financial incentives for Apple are not at all aligned with my personal interests. Whereas I can not say the same thing about Google. I do not…

With Google you are the product, with Apple you are the customer. I like Google but I trust Apple.
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