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Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

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Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran would largely be left to itself if it did not pursue hostile foreign policy against countries in the region. Is Iran in a better position after firing missiles at Azerbaijan, Oman, and Turkey? All three of these countries were neutral or friendly towards Iran, until Iran fired missiles at each unprompted. Its current situation is largely self-inflicted, and a result of poor foreign policy choices. > If anything,…

> Iran would largely be left to itself if it did not pursue hostile foreign policy against countries in the region. Yes, yes. Like it was left to itself in the 50s and 70s. Cool story bro. > That policy will lead to world peace, since there will be no world left to live in. You know what does not lead to world peace? A situation where the US believes it has free pass to bomb other countries and interfere on them unch…

Iran has attacked

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, Iraq, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Cyprus

completely unprompted, this year. Each of these countries had peaceful relations with Iran, prior to Iran attacking them. Oman was negotiating on Iran's side to resolve the conflict with Israel, yet Iran bombed them anyway. Azerbaijan has no ties to the Israel/US/Iran conflict. Yet Iran shot attack drones at a school in Azerbaijan anyway.

Should such a country be trusted with nuclear weapons?

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gap between weeks and years is big, though. Even in peacetime conditions, this process could be sped up if necessary. Indeed it might not make any sense at all to think in years and decades when it comes to such a quick-evolving industry. Whatever drone the DoD sets in stone now, will likely be obsolete by 2030. The Ukrainian drone industry isn't particularly expensive, BTW, and mostly grew up from private sector…

My impression from reading your comment is that you do not understand US doctrine. The US focuses on blitzkrieg, air supremacy, and precision strikes. Its doctrine is totally opposite of what is happening in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, which is a protracted WWI-era trench warfare conflict with minimal airpower by either side. The US is not optimized to fight such a war. Neither do you understand that the US has opti…

I understand the US doctrine, which is also fine-tailored to buying very expensive systems from certain corporations that have few to none competitors and feel no real pressure to innovate.

"Arguably, the current Iran conflict is a proxy war against the PRoC."

That is stretching it. The vast majority of weapons that Iran deployed were of their own build, and China sends nowhere near as much equipment to Iran as, say, Europe to Ukraine.

"Future military spending is focused on countering China, not on the style of conflict Ukraine is facing."

Which is part of the problem. As a wanna-still-be-superpower, the US will face a lot of diverse conflicts in the world, with various characteristics.

"The US is not optimized to fight such a war."

The US is not optimized to a bombing campaign against countries the size of Iran anymore either. You are literally running out of things to throw at them after mere weeks have passed.

Good luck fighting China then, with its 16x as big population and 100x as big economy than Iran has.

"The US (and Russia) could always win their current conflicts with ICBMs, but choose not to. That is a calculated choice, not an inability to win as you claim."

War is continuation of politics, not just destruction for its own sake. To win the war does not mean "utterly destroy a certain region", but "make the opponent do as you wish, at least in some aspects, against his will, while not suffering catastrophic consequences elsewhere".

If political constraints stop you from deploying WMDs, and you cannot achieve your political aims with conventional weapons, that counts as an inability to win the war. Can the US make the Iranian leadership drop their nuclear ambitions? It does not seems so. Can the US wipe Iran off the map? Yes, but at the cost of becoming a pariah nation, which is worse than ayatollahs having a few nukes. Only a fool would call the latter "victory".

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware. This has not seemed to be a problem for the countries using them; what makes the US so uniquely inefficient?

Unlike Iran and Ukraine, the US military weapons are not manufactured in someone's garage or basement.

Quite a lot of Ukrainian-designed drones are nowadays produced in Western Europe in normal factories and sent to Ukraine. That is one of the reasons why Russia cannot simply destroy Ukrainian factories.

Ukraine deploys several million drones a year, you can't get there by mere artisan workshops in garages.

Sure, the designer teams back in Ukraine are lean, their members wear tracksuits and don't have a 50-head Human Resources to watch their behavior, nor three levels of managers wearing Philippe Patek above them. That is part of the efficiency and lower cost.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike Iran and Ukraine, the US military weapons are not manufactured in someone's garage or basement.

But Iran and Ukraine are being very effective with their basement drones. If the US's manufacturing is fancier but not faster, meaning that it takes longer to get weaponry, that's not a good thing. It sounds like waste more than industry.

US-produced Hornets (ex-Google boss Eric Schmidt is the CEO) are very modern and are now destroying Russian logistics to Crimea. From what I have heard, they are iterating fast based on what the Ukrainian operators report back.

This shows that the US private sector can well produce contemporary drones on a compressed time scale.

It is the Pentagon which is not interested in overhauling settled vendor relations.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#55
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade." Interesting that the Ukrainians can design, develop, produce and deploy a new type of a drone in something like 6 weeks. Of course, they are in a life-or-death struggle and thus cannot afford a decade of paper wars with various lawyerly and MBA types who want to have their say. That said, the US cannot afford those eith…

You present two issues: 1) the US is slow to adapt to drone warfare and 2) the US is losing to Iran. For 1), the US isn't in a hurry because there's no actual threat. The lack of drone warfare capabilities only impacts US action overseas and of the little bipartisan consensus left, one thing is clear: no new wars (Trump's Iran war is seen as betrayal from his own party but it's hard to oppose Dear Leader). For 2), it…

1) actual threats tend to mature in weeks, so this is a good recipe to get caught with pants down.

2) I concur, there seem to be no actual goals there. There is a Croatian saying that "form whomever who doesn't know where he wants to sail, no wind is useful". This fits.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression from reading your comment is that you do not understand US doctrine. The US focuses on blitzkrieg, air supremacy, and precision strikes. Its doctrine is totally opposite of what is happening in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, which is a protracted WWI-era trench warfare conflict with minimal airpower by either side. The US is not optimized to fight such a war. Neither do you understand that the US has opti…

I understand the US doctrine, which is also fine-tailored to buying very expensive systems from certain corporations that have few to none competitors and feel no real pressure to innovate. "Arguably, the current Iran conflict is a proxy war against the PRoC." That is stretching it. The vast majority of weapons that Iran deployed were of their own build, and China sends nowhere near as much equipment to Iran as, say,…

You obviously don't understand US doctrine, since earlier you were complaining how the US hasn't adapted its arsenal regarding drones in just four years.

Iran would not be able to pursue nuclear weapons nor missiles without China's assistance. The precursors of the missile fuel, the precursors of yellowcake processing, the chips and hardware of Iranian drones, all come from China with its assistance and blessing.

China has provided military equipment and weapons to Iran. China has military personnel in Iran operating air defense systems. It is accurate to call this a proxy war.

The fact you are unaware of any of this, demonstrates your lack of understanding of the conflict.

Further proof you do not comprehend US doctrine, is that the US can always escalate the conflict and pursue a ground war. But is hesitant to do so simply because Trump does not want war. Trump prefers quick, surgical operations; and does not want to drag the US into a forever war like Bush Jr and Obama did.

You keep claiming the US is "inable" to win the war, yet you do not understand the definition of this word. Choosing not do pursue a strategy for political reasons is not inable. The US would win a ground war against Iran, full stop. Your analysis fails to consider this option. But it would win at the cost of thousands of lives, and likely the US would need to occupy the country, which is politically challenging, and Trump is savvy enough to be hesitant to pursue this option.

You also lack historical understanding of war. You forget that total destruction and capitulation was the default strategy of war for millenia, see strategies of the Mongols or the war against Japan, where the US firebombed and leveled Japanese cities, even nuking them, until capitulation.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran would largely be left to itself if it did not pursue hostile foreign policy against countries in the region. Yes, yes. Like it was left to itself in the 50s and 70s. Cool story bro. > That policy will lead to world peace, since there will be no world left to live in. You know what does not lead to world peace? A situation where the US believes it has free pass to bomb other countries and interfere on them unch…

Iran has attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, Iraq, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Cyprus completely unprompted, this year. Each of these countries had peaceful relations with Iran, prior to Iran attacking them. Oman was negotiating on Iran's side to resolve the conflict with Israel, yet Iran bombed them anyway. Azerbaijan has no ties to the Israel/US/Iran conflict. Ye…

> Iran has attacked

It has been attacked prior to that.

You keep pretending Iran is the agressor here.

It is actually defending itself, attacking countries in its vicinity that harbor US forces.

> completely unprompted, this year

US bombed Iran amidst negotiations, before Iran attacked those countries.

You have a very interesting notion of what "unprompted" means.

> Should such a country be trusted with nuclear weapons?

Are you talking about the US?

I certainly don't think it can be trusted with any weapons.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran has attacked Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, Iraq, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Cyprus completely unprompted, this year. Each of these countries had peaceful relations with Iran, prior to Iran attacking them. Oman was negotiating on Iran's side to resolve the conflict with Israel, yet Iran bombed them anyway. Azerbaijan has no ties to the Israel/US/Iran conflict. Ye…

> Iran has attacked It has been attacked prior to that. You keep pretending Iran is the agressor here. It is actually defending itself, attacking countries in its vicinity that harbor US forces. > completely unprompted, this year US bombed Iran amidst negotiations, before Iran attacked those countries. You have a very interesting notion of what "unprompted" means. > Should such a country be trusted with nuclear weapo…

> You keep pretending Iran is the agressor here.

> It is actually defending itself, attacking countries in its vicinity that harbor US forces.

Azerbaijan has no US military bases, it has no Israeli military bases, it has no ties to the current conflict, yet Iran still fired drones at a school in Azerbaijan, completely unprompted.

Oman was negotiating a peace agreement between Israel and Iran, it was actively advocating on the side Iran for a peace deal, Oman tried their hardest to remain neutral towards Iran in this conflict, yet Iran betrayed them and still fired drones at ports in Oman in the opening days of the war.

Iran has attacked all of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan, Iraq, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Cyprus just this year.

Iran's actions betray each of your claims.

Iran makes poor foreign policy decisions. Iran made the conscious choice to attack these countries. Iran chooses a hostile foreign policy toward its neighbors. None of these countries want conflict with Iran, all of them want peace, yet Iran attacks them anyway.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade." Interesting that the Ukrainians can design, develop, produce and deploy a new type of a drone in something like 6 weeks. Of course, they are in a life-or-death struggle and thus cannot afford a decade of paper wars with various lawyerly and MBA types who want to have their say. That said, the US cannot afford those eith…

Ukraine has been operating under general mobilization and martial law since 2022. Comparing Ukraine to the United States which is under no mobilization and civilian rule is not a fair comparison. If the United States was fully mobilized and restructured into a war economy like Ukraine, we would see rapid changes in military doctrine. On Iran, describing the US as "inable" to win is structurally incorrect. The US coul…

>>The US could always win the war whenever it wants to. Same with Russia vs Ukraine.

Yes, russia can win anytime. They simply decided to grind a million of russians instead.

ICBM is a deterrent, not a winning weapon.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#60

Not by chance. Why is the US Army helicopter flying in another sovereign country? The USA is the Russia of the West nowadays.

USA always did far worse things than Russia. Nothing new here.

Definitely not.

You don't seem to know about the wars Russia fought even in the last 30 years, and the ways they did.

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