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Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

arstechnica.com

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Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#31

Post by Planktonne »

roshin wrote: post #26
conartist6 wrote: post #25

I just want to confirm that people don't think hitting civilian drinking water as retaliation for a military helicopter is normal or ok

people might not like it if it was targeted, but if it got slightly damaged (and currently functional) as collateral damage to a military target, I assume more people would be okay

The countries currently bombing Iran have boasted for years of their precision targeting systems. They've also made countless statements that show a willingness to targets civilians and infrastructure [1].

At this point, every direct hit on a school or a water source or a charity being accidental collateral damage just doesn't ring true.

Either they've been lying about capabilities (and all the precision strikes were undergone with reckless disregard for human life) or they have the capabilities claimed and are doing exactly what they said they would.

[1] One famous example: https://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/02/politics/donald-trump-ter...

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#32

Post by Planktonne »

tristanj wrote: post #12
inglor_cz wrote: post #5

So, the US relearns all the lessons of the Russo-Ukrainian war the hard way? Choppers proved very vulnerable already in 2022. History often repeats itself. In a similar way, Great Powers like France refused to study the lessons of the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-5 because it was something that happened in barbarian lands far away from glorious Europe, so it was obviously irrelevant to them, right? And then the shock o…

Absolutely incorrect. The attitude within the military industrial complex towards drone/UAVs has shifted enormously since the Russia/Ukraine conflict. However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware. The US military is sitting on decades of older equipment. The Ukraine conflict started four years ago. Complai…

> However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware.

This has not seemed to be a problem for the countries using them; what makes the US so uniquely inefficient?

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#33

Post by tristanj »

inglor_cz wrote: post #28
tristanj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely incorrect. The attitude within the military industrial complex towards drone/UAVs has shifted enormously since the Russia/Ukraine conflict. However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware. The US military is sitting on decades of older equipment. The Ukraine conflict started four years ago. Complai…

"However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade." Interesting that the Ukrainians can design, develop, produce and deploy a new type of a drone in something like 6 weeks. Of course, they are in a life-or-death struggle and thus cannot afford a decade of paper wars with various lawyerly and MBA types who want to have their say. That said, the US cannot afford those eith…

Ukraine has been operating under general mobilization and martial law since 2022. Comparing Ukraine to the United States which is under no mobilization and civilian rule is not a fair comparison. If the United States was fully mobilized and restructured into a war economy like Ukraine, we would see rapid changes in military doctrine.

On Iran, describing the US as "inable" to win is structurally incorrect. The US could always win the war whenever it wants to. Same with Russia vs Ukraine. Both the USA and Russia have ICBMs. Neither choose to use them, for political reasons.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#35

Post by inglor_cz »

tristanj wrote: post #33
inglor_cz wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade." Interesting that the Ukrainians can design, develop, produce and deploy a new type of a drone in something like 6 weeks. Of course, they are in a life-or-death struggle and thus cannot afford a decade of paper wars with various lawyerly and MBA types who want to have their say. That said, the US cannot afford those eith…

Ukraine has been operating under general mobilization and martial law since 2022. Comparing Ukraine to the United States which is under no mobilization and civilian rule is not a fair comparison. If the United States was fully mobilized and restructured into a war economy like Ukraine, we would see rapid changes in military doctrine. On Iran, describing the US as "inable" to win is structurally incorrect. The US coul…

The gap between weeks and years is big, though. Even in peacetime conditions, this process could be sped up if necessary. Indeed it might not make any sense at all to think in years and decades when it comes to such a quick-evolving industry. Whatever drone the DoD sets in stone now, will likely be obsolete by 2030.

The Ukrainian drone industry isn't particularly expensive, BTW, and mostly grew up from private sector grassroots. Ukrainian military has had its own share of problems with ossified Soviet-era leadership. They were able to route around these, though. The US does not want to do this so far; probably too much money involved, and not enough risk to rock those boats (or yachts).

On Iran, describing the US as "inable" to win is structurally incorrect. The US could always win the war whenever it wants to.

Are you sure, with the shortages of equipment that take years to replenish? In what sense? I am not even sure if the US has enough naval capability to make a D-day-like landing in Iran right now. That requires specialized ships and training.

The US could probably win the war if it went in fully: as you say, if it was fully mobilized and restructured into a war economy like Ukraine. But that is already quite a bad situation to be in. If a superpower needs to do this in order to fight someone like Iran, it is not really a (conventional) superpower anymore.

The US could also wipe Iran using nuclear missiles, but the political ramifications of such a step would be catastrophic.

So could Pakistan. Pakistan has enough nukes to wipe Iran off the Earth (not that they want to). But no one mistakes Pakistan for a superpower just because they have deliverable nukes.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#36

Post by surgical_fire »

tristanj wrote: post #7
spiderfarmer wrote: post #3

Not by chance. Why is the US Army helicopter flying in another sovereign country? The USA is the Russia of the West nowadays.

The helicopter in question was flying in Oman, in Omani territorial waters. Why does Iran have the right to fire drones into other countries?

Gee, I wonder why?

Maybe because the Israel-US axis decided it was a good idea to start bombing them earlier this year? Could be that?

Perhaps, and this is a long shot, they see military equipment close to their border as a threat?

People get weird like that when countries start bombing their schoolgirls into minced meat.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#37

Post by tristanj »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35
tristanj wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine has been operating under general mobilization and martial law since 2022. Comparing Ukraine to the United States which is under no mobilization and civilian rule is not a fair comparison. If the United States was fully mobilized and restructured into a war economy like Ukraine, we would see rapid changes in military doctrine. On Iran, describing the US as "inable" to win is structurally incorrect. The US coul…

The gap between weeks and years is big, though. Even in peacetime conditions, this process could be sped up if necessary. Indeed it might not make any sense at all to think in years and decades when it comes to such a quick-evolving industry. Whatever drone the DoD sets in stone now, will likely be obsolete by 2030. The Ukrainian drone industry isn't particularly expensive, BTW, and mostly grew up from private sector…

My impression from reading your comment is that you do not understand US doctrine. The US focuses on blitzkrieg, air supremacy, and precision strikes. Its doctrine is totally opposite of what is happening in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, which is a protracted WWI-era trench warfare conflict with minimal airpower by either side. The US is not optimized to fight such a war.

Neither do you understand that the US has optimized its military around conflict against the PRoC. The US has fought multiple proxy wars against the PRoC. Arguably, the current Iran conflict is a proxy war against the PRoC. Future military spending is focused on countering China, not on the style of conflict Ukraine is facing.

That is why the US is phasing out military assets such as infantry forces and artillery, and is investing in unmanned vehicles and long-range missiles.

Further, you incorrectly quote and misinterpret what I wrote about ICBMs. The US (and Russia) could always win their current conflicts with ICBMs, but choose not to. That is a calculated choice, not an inability to win as you claim.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#38

Post by tristanj »

wolvoleo wrote: post #22
tristanj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The helicopter in question was flying in Oman, in Omani territorial waters. Why does Iran have the right to fire drones into other countries?

> Why does Iran have the right to fire drones into other countries? If America hadn't started bombing Iran in the first place this wouldn't have happened anyway. Things would have been peaceful and oil prices would have been fine.

And if the US/Israel didn't strike Iran, Iran would have ICBMs with nuclear warheads, which Iran could use for peace.

Did you forget the purpose of the war?

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#39

Post by tristanj »

orwin wrote: post #17
tristanj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The helicopter in question was flying in Oman, in Omani territorial waters. Why does Iran have the right to fire drones into other countries?

Because the US fired missiles from other countries? It's not a game of mounted tag.

Do you believe Iran should not be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons? Why do you think this entire conflict started?

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#40

Post by SirFatty »

Planktonne wrote: post #32
tristanj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely incorrect. The attitude within the military industrial complex towards drone/UAVs has shifted enormously since the Russia/Ukraine conflict. However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware. The US military is sitting on decades of older equipment. The Ukraine conflict started four years ago. Complai…

> However, procurement times on new equipment is on the order of several years to nearly a decade. There's not enough time to produce nor acquire this hardware. This has not seemed to be a problem for the countries using them; what makes the US so uniquely inefficient?

Unlike Iran and Ukraine, the US military weapons are not manufactured in someone's garage or basement.
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